Monthly Archives: June 2018

Wilsonian Obama vs the Trump Doctrine

As best I see it, Obama’s approach to world peace was a version of Woodrow Wilson’s: he consistently supported left-leaning, popular groups and governments, even when they were anti-American over pro-American kings, generals, and dictators. Obama heaped money and praise on elected leaders of Iran and the Palestinian Authority, while condemning Israel, and encouraging Democrats to walk out of a speech its PM. He then sent a statement to be read on the floor of congress that the Israeli PM  had nothing to say. Similarly, Obama refused to negotiate with Kim Jung Un of North Korea, a dictator in his eyes, but he had no problem with Raul Castro. Leftists, in his view, were for the masses, and thus democratic. Such democrats were on the side of the angels in his view, though Castro’s Cuba was not exactly free.

The co-head of the Democratic Party wears a shirt that reads "I don't believe in borders." It's a Moslem Brotherhood slogan. They do not believe in borders between Gaza and Israel, but do believe in them between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The co-head of the Democratic Party wears a shirt that reads “I don’t believe in borders.” It’s a globalist slogan, a Moslem Brotherhood slogan. The Trump doctrine requires boundaries between ‘turf.”

One of the most popular, if violent groups on the world stage was (is) the Moslem Brotherhood. A few months after becoming president, he gave his first foreign speech at Cairo University,  making the Wilsonian request to include the Brotherhood here and in all further negotiations. The Moslem Brotherhood was anti-American and left leaning, and they favored elections. On the other hand, they had assassinated Egyptian president Anwar el-Sadat and Egyptian prime minister Mohammad Pasha just a few years previous. They had also tried to overthrow the government of Egypt and Jordan by force, and had tried to assassinate Egyptian president Nasser and Jordan’s kings Abdullah and Hussein, unsuccessfully. Including the Brotherhood was symptomatic of a general problem of Wilsonian diplomacy; it provides no good way to tell the good guys from the bad without putting them in power. Some hints: the Brotherhood afforded no rights to women or gays; they had no clear distinctions from Hezbollah, Hamas, or Al Qaeda; and they were anti-American and anti Israel to the extent that they shouted death to both.

Even though the Moslem Brotherhood was Sunni-Moslem, a fair number in the mid-east cane to claim that Obama had included them because he was a Shiite Moslem, and just using them to overthrow more-stable Sunni governments of Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Here’s a bit from an Iraqi MP, and from Saudi TV making this claim. Here too is a joke about Sunni and Shia to help you keep the two groups straight. Whatever his motivation, the outcome was the so-called Arab Spring (2011) uprisings that overthrew pro-American regimes in Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and Turkey. It also brought the end of a free press in Turkey, and trouble for pro-American regimes in Bahrain, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. After the Brotherhood murdered the American ambassador in Libya and his (few) US guards, Obama blamed the death on some Jewish film-makers. My sense is that Obama was unwilling to believe that a fellow leftist of the Brotherhood would lie to him and murder our ambassador just to get at billions of dollars of Libya’s oil.

Trump, his daughter, el Sisi, and the King of Saudi Arabia. No Emir of Qatar.

Trump, Melania, the King of Saudi Arabia, and  el-Sisi of Egypt at a meeting in Riyadh with other friendly leaders; no Emir of Qatar, no Muslim Brotherhood.

Wilson lived to see the Mid-east parts of his 14 points lead to disaster in country after country (those were points V, XI, and XII for the Woody Woo fans). Obama similarly backed Kurdish and Hezbollah “moderates” only to see them turn sides and fight one another, or fight against our ally Turkey, or join together and form ISIS. He backed Palestinians in Gaza too, and saw them murder gays and suspected traitors on TV. He supported “moderate” Turkey, and found his Turkish allies killing his Kurds. Obama fueled a murderous tribal war, like Wilson had done, based on the best of intentions, and an American naiveté about how the world works.

Closer to home, at the very end of Obama’s presidency, he ended the registry of the National Security Entry-Exit System (NSEERS) intended to track terrorists. He closed this border program because it was racist in his view. Most of the illegals caught were Moslems or brown-skinned. Republicans seem to agree that a border-security program like this is problematic, especially where children are involved, but they claim it is better than letting in terrorists, or criminals, or the occasional human trafficker. Lacking anyone with a better answer, they elected Donald Trump, a man who claimed he’d bring peace by building a wall.

Trump made his first mideast speech in Saudi Arabia, but unlike Obama, he invited only pro-American, authoritarian leaders. He left out the Muslim Brotherhood and the rulers of any “republican” government that chanted “Death to America.” Trump announced that the US will not dictate how leaders should run their countries, or how people in these countries should live. Instead, we would be a friend to our friends, and that we would mediate disputes where necessary and helpful. There was also a threat against “bad guys” understood to be the enemies of America.

This “Trump doctrine” seems (to me) to have been borrowed from Charles (Lucky) Luciano, a New York mob boss who kept peace between the various mob families of New York and New Jersey by keeping the territories separate and clear (similar to Trump’s wall). Luciano allowed the various family heads to do what they wanted on their own turf, and offered to mediate disputes (see the similarity?). He also treated to hit those who hit him, and he took no guff. So far, Trump’s version of this seems to be working. The mideast is far calmer than when Obama was president, perhaps because its leaders understand Trump better, and Trump may have negotiated an end to the Korean war. Wilsonian Democrats (Obama) claimed that you can’t negotiate with a murderous thug like Kim Jung Un, but Trump has no problem — they both like walls. Besides, Trump points out that the alternative is nuclear war.

I suspect that Trump is hated by the Europeans is the comparison with Obama. Obama spent our money liberally, on them and on their issues, while Trump does not. A thought: if the Europeans think a president is spending enough, he's spending too much.

Obama spent our money liberally on the Europeans while Trump does not. A thought: if the Europeans think you spend enough, you’re spending too much.

How does Trump hit back? For one, he refuses to serve as free protector for those who can defend themselves. Trump has threatened Germany saying they must pay for their own defense, and has cut funding to the UN Human Rights commission and the Paris climate council, groups he considers pointless or worse. More recently, he ended Obama’s constraints on natural gas exploration and exports. In 2017 US gas exports rose by $4B, a factor of four from 2016, dramatically lowering the price of natural gas on the open market. Several oil nations were hit by this including Qatar the main gas exporter in 2014 (Russia is now) and a main funder of Al Jazeera, and of Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Robert Buxbaum, June 26, 2018. I’ve never understood why people expect Marxist leaders to be peaceful. Marx himself claims that the mode of production determines a country’s social, political and intellectual life. A leader hoping to control the latter must control the former with a war-like ferocity if he’s to be a Marxist, and even the most milk-toast Marxists have done so.

Isotopic effects in hydrogen diffusion in metals

For most people, there is a fundamental difference between solids and fluids. Solids have long-term permanence with no apparent diffusion; liquids diffuse and lack permanence. Put a penny on top of a dime, and 20 years later the two coins are as distinct as ever. Put a layer of colored water on top of plain water, and within a few minutes you’ll see that the coloring diffuse into the plain water, or (if you think the other way) you’ll see the plain water diffuse into the colored.

Now consider the transport of hydrogen in metals, the technology behind REB Research’s metallic  membranes and getters. The metals are clearly solid, keeping their shapes and properties for centuries. Still, hydrogen flows into and through the metals at a rate of a light breeze, about 40 cm/minute. Another way of saying this is we transfer 30 to 50 cc/min of hydrogen through each cm2 of membrane at 200 psi and 400°C; divide the volume by the area, and you’ll see that the hydrogen really moves through the metal at a nice clip. It’s like a normal filter, but it’s 100% selective to hydrogen. No other gas goes through.

To explain why hydrogen passes through the solid metal membrane this way, we have to start talking about quantum behavior. It was the quantum behavior of hydrogen that first interested me in hydrogen, some 42 years ago. I used it to explain why water was wet. Below, you will find something a bit more mathematical, a quantum explanation of hydrogen motion in metals. At REB we recently put these ideas towards building a membrane system for concentration of heavy hydrogen isotopes. If you like what follows, you might want to look up my thesis. This is from my 3rd appendix.

Although no-one quite understands why nature should work this way, it seems that nature works by quantum mechanics (and entropy). The basic idea of quantum mechanics you will know that confined atoms can only occupy specific, quantized energy levels as shown below. The energy difference between the lowest energy state and the next level is typically high. Thus, most of the hydrogen atoms in an atom will occupy only the lower state, the so-called zero-point-energy state.

A hydrogen atom, shown occupying an interstitial position between metal atoms (above), is also occupying quantum states (below). The lowest state, ZPE is above the bottom of the well. Higher energy states are degenerate: they appear in pairs. The rate of diffusive motion is related to ∆E* and this degeneracy.

A hydrogen atom, shown occupying an interstitial position between metal atoms (above), is also occupying quantum states (below). The lowest state, ZPE is above the bottom of the well. Higher energy states are degenerate: they appear in pairs. The rate of diffusive motion is related to ∆E* and this degeneracy.

The fraction occupying a higher energy state is calculated as c*/c = exp (-∆E*/RT). where ∆E* is the molar energy difference between the higher energy state and the ground state, R is the gas constant and T is temperature. When thinking about diffusion it is worthwhile to note that this energy is likely temperature dependent. Thus ∆E* = ∆G* = ∆H* – T∆S* where asterisk indicates the key energy level where diffusion takes place — the activated state. If ∆E* is mostly elastic strain energy, we can assume that ∆S* is related to the temperature dependence of the elastic strain.

Thus,

∆S* = -∆E*/Y dY/dT

where Y is the Young’s modulus of elasticity of the metal. For hydrogen diffusion in metals, I find that ∆S* is typically small, while it is often typically significant for the diffusion of other atoms: carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur…

The rate of diffusion is now calculated assuming a three-dimensional drunkards walk where the step lengths are constant = a. Rayleigh showed that, for a simple cubic lattice, this becomes:

D = a2/6τ

a is the distance between interstitial sites and t is the average time for crossing. For hydrogen in a BCC metal like niobium or iron, D=

a2/9τ; for a FCC metal, like palladium or copper, it’s

a2/3τ. A nice way to think about τ, is to note that it is only at high-energy can a hydrogen atom cross from one interstitial site to another, and as we noted most hydrogen atoms will be at lower energies. Thus,

τ = ω c*/c = ω exp (-∆E*/RT)

where ω is the approach frequency, or the amount of time it takes to go from the left interstitial position to the right one. When I was doing my PhD (and still likely today) the standard approach of physics writers was to use a classical formulation for this time-scale based on the average speed of the interstitial. Thus, ω = 1/2a√(kT/m), and

τ = 1/2a√(kT/m) exp (-∆E*/RT).

In the above, m is the mass of the hydrogen atom, 1.66 x 10-24 g for protium, and twice that for deuterium, etc., a is the distance between interstitial sites, measured in cm, T is temperature, Kelvin, and k is the Boltzmann constant, 1.38 x 10-16 erg/°K. This formulation correctly predicts that heavier isotopes will diffuse slower than light isotopes, but it predicts incorrectly that, at all temperatures, the diffusivity of deuterium is 1/√2 that for protium, and that the diffusivity of tritium is 1/√3 that of protium. It also suggests that the activation energy of diffusion will not depend on isotope mass. I noticed that neither of these predictions is borne out by experiment, and came to wonder if it would not be more correct to assume ω represent the motion of the lattice, breathing, and not the motion of a highly activated hydrogen atom breaking through an immobile lattice. This thought is borne out by experimental diffusion data where you describe hydrogen diffusion as D = D° exp (-∆E*/RT).

Screen Shot 2018-06-21 at 12.08.20 AM

You’ll notice from the above that D° hardly changes with isotope mass, in complete contradiction to the above classical model. Also note that ∆E* is very isotope dependent. This too is in contradiction to the classical formulation above. Further, to the extent that D° does change with isotope mass, D° gets larger for heavier mass hydrogen isotopes. I assume that small difference is the entropy effect of ∆E* mentioned above. There is no simple square-root of mass behavior in contrast to most of the books we had in grad school.

As for why ∆E* varies with isotope mass, I found that I could get a decent explanation of my observations if I assumed that the isotope dependence arose from the zero point energy. Heavier isotopes of hydrogen will have lower zero-point energies, and thus ∆E* will be higher for heavier isotopes of hydrogen. This seems like a far better approach than the semi-classical one, where ∆E* is isotope independent.

I will now go a bit further than I did in my PhD thesis. I’ll make the general assumption that the energy well is sinusoidal, or rather that it consists of two parabolas one opposite the other. The ZPE is easily calculated for parabolic energy surfaces (harmonic oscillators). I find that ZPE = h/aπ √(∆E/m) where m is the mass of the particular hydrogen atom, h is Plank’s constant, 6.63 x 10-27 erg-sec,  and ∆E is ∆E* + ZPE, the zero point energy. For my PhD thesis, I didn’t think to calculate ZPE and thus the isotope effect on the activation energy. I now see how I could have done it relatively easily e.g. by trial and error, and a quick estimate shows it would have worked nicely. Instead, for my PhD, Appendix 3, I only looked at D°, and found that the values of D° were consistent with the idea that ω is about 0.55 times the Debye frequency, ω ≈ .55 ωD. The slight tendency for D° to be larger for heavier isotopes was explained by the temperature dependence of the metal’s elasticity.

Two more comments based on the diagram I presented above. First, notice that there is middle split level of energies. This was an explanation I’d put forward for quantum tunneling atomic migration that some people had seen at energies below the activation energy. I don’t know if this observation was a reality or an optical illusion, but present I the energy picture so that you’ll have the beginnings of a description. The other thing I’d like to address is the question you may have had — why is there no zero-energy effect at the activated energy state. Such a zero energy difference would cancel the one at the ground state and leave you with no isotope effect on activation energy. The simple answer is that all the data showing the isotope effect on activation energy, table A3-2, was for BCC metals. BCC metals have an activation energy barrier, but it is not caused by physical squeezing between atoms, as for a FCC metal, but by a lack of electrons. In a BCC metal there is no physical squeezing, at the activated state so you’d expect to have no ZPE there. This is not be the case for FCC metals, like palladium, copper, or most stainless steels. For these metals there is a much smaller, on non-existent isotope effect on ∆E*.

Robert Buxbaum, June 21, 2018. I should probably try to answer the original question about solids and fluids, too: why solids appear solid, and fluids not. My answer has to do with quantum mechanics: Energies are quantized, and always have a ∆E* for motion. Solid materials are those where ω exp (-∆E*/RT) has unit of centuries. Thus, our ability to understand the world is based on the least understandable bit of physics.

Survey on hydrogen use

My company makes hydrogen generators: devices that make ultra-pure hydrogen on demand from methanol and water using a membrane reactor. If you use hydrogen, please fill out the following survey. I need to know my customers needs better, e.g. so that I will know if I should add a compressor. Thanks.

Create your own user feedback survey

Robert Buxbaum, June 13, 2018

Sex differences in addiction.

Men become addicted and so do women, but the view in popular movies and songs present some clear differences. Addicted men are presented as drunks or stoners. By contrast, the popular picture of an addicted woman is a middle-aged housewife who takes “mother’s little helper“: anti-depressant and pain pills, “mother’s little helper of the classic Rolling Stones song. Male addicts are presented to take their drugs in the company of friends while female addicts are pictured taking their pills in private. A question I have: is there any evidence to back these popular perceptions.

All addiction may not be bad. Though Churchill was addicted to drink, he imagined it as a virtue not a vice.

Not all who are addicted consider their addiction a liability. Though Churchill was addicted to drink, starting the day with a tumbler of whiskey, he imagined it as a virtue. One would be hard-pressed to prove otherwise.

As it happens, if you look at the statistics in a certain way, they do bear out the popular perceptions. About three times as many men as women are in treatment for alcohol or pot, voluntary or court-mandated. Meanwhile, as a percentage of the addicted, women are nearly twice as likely as men to claim pills as their primary addiction. Percentage data is plotted below. The problem with the percentage graph is that it ignores the fact that twice as many men as women are in treatment: 1,233,000 men vs 609,000 women, as of 2011. Multiply the total numbers by the percentages and you find that there are more men than women with primary addiction to pills, or to cocaine, heroin, or meth-amphetamines. For any drug you mention, the real sex-difference is that more men are addicts.

It could be argues that rehab attendance is a bad measure of addiction, but I would argue that this is the best measure, not only are the numbers are more accurate, rehab is an indication that the addict feels that his or her addiction is a problem. It is a mistake, I think, to include people who feel their addiction is not ruining their lives with people who do not, e.g. Churchill. Any person who believes he or she is benefiting, and who has managed to avoid running afoul of the police, it could be argued, does not have a serious problem. Friends and employers may disagree in terms of diagnosis, but in terms of statistics, other measures like self-reporting come to the same conclusion: if it’s a stupid addiction, more men do it than women. Men self-report that they smoke more, binge-drink more, and use drugs more. Men also commit suicide more and end up in jail more.

Main addiction of men and women. percent based on rehab records, 2011. From the TEDS Report 4/3/14. Twice as many men as women go to rehab.

Main addiction of men and women. percent based on rehab records, 2011. From the TEDS Report on substance abuse. 4/3/14. The most significant sex difference, as I see it: twice as many men as women go to rehab.

In terms of age of prescription drug use, the graph below shows a difference between men and women. There is a slight tendency for women to persist with prescription drugs, but that may reflect the tendency for men to move on to some other stupid behavior.

While more female than male addicts consider opioids their main addiction, since there are twice as many male addicts as female, it comes out that the number using opioids is about the same. Interestingly, a greater fraction of men seem capable of switching out from opioids -- likely to some other addiction.

While more female than male addicts consider opioids their main addiction, since there are twice as many male addicts as female, it comes out that the number using opioids is about the same. A greater fraction of men switch out from opioids, perhaps to another addiction. Source: ibid.

A few cheerful bits of news are in order. One is that smoking, the most deadly of the addictions, is on the decline. It seems like vaping is a contributor to this, and much safer. Similarly, with illicit drug addictions, while use is on the upswing, and while an amazingly large share of Americans have used such drugs — see graph below from Statista — only a small fraction remain users into middle age. Most seem to quit on their own — they even seem to quit heroin when it ceases to serve a purpose. At present, only 60,000/year total die of overdose out of some 120,000,000 who’ve used illicit drugs. Ringo Starr’s song, “I don’t smoke it no more“may be cited, especially when paired with his “Oh my my” song about quitting through dance. If you want to quit and dance doesn’t work for you, I’d suggest AA or NA. To quote Ringo: “You can do it if you try.”

Number of people in the US using different drugs as of 2016. The vast majority have not used in the last year.

Number of people in the US who have used different illegal drugs as of 2016. It’s about 1/3 of America. The vast majority from every category have quit, and are not using. 89% of heroin uses have quit. You can too. Statista.

As for why men more than women do drugs, all I can say is that they do all sorts of stupid things. They fight in wars more often, they go over Niagara Falls in barrels more often, and they start new businesses more often. Sometimes it works for them; usually not. Here is a more detailed article with the same semi-conclusion: men are stupid, risk takers. I suspect that’s their language of love.

Robert Buxbaum, June 11, 2018

Most traffic deaths are from driving too slow

About 40,100 Americans lose their lives to traffic accidents every year. About 10,000 of these losses involve alcohol, and about the same number involve pedestrians, but far more people have their lives sucked away by waiting in traffic, IMHO. Hours are spent staring at a light, hoping it will change, or slowly plodding between destinations with their minds near blank. This slow loss of life is as real as the accidental type, but less dramatic.

Consider that Americans drive about 3.2 trillion miles each year. I’ll assume an average speed of 30 mph (the average speed registered on my car is 29 mph). Considering only the drivers of these vehicles, I calculate 133 billion man-hours of driving per year; that’s 15.2 million man-years or 217,000 man-lifetimes. If people were to drive a little faster, perhaps 10% faster, some 22,000 man lifetimes would be saved per year in time wasted. The simple change of raising the maximum highway speed to 80 mph from 70, I’d expect, would save half this, maybe 10,000 lifetimes. There would likely be some more accidental deaths, but not more accidents. Tiredness is a big part of highway accidents, as is highway congestion. Faster speeds decreases both, decreasing the number of accidents, but one expects there will be an increase in the deadliness of the accidents.

Highway deaths for the years before and after Nov. 1995. Most states raised speeds, but some left them unchanged.

Highway deaths for the years before and after speed limit were relaxed in Nov. 1995. At that time most states raised their speed limits, but some did not, leaving them at 65 rural, 55 urban; a few states were not included in this study because they made minor changes.

A counter to this expectation comes from the German Autobahn, the fastest highway in the world with sections that have no speed limit. German safety records show that there are far fewer accidents per km on the Autobahn, and that the fatality rate per km is about 1/3 that on other stretches of highway. This is about 1/2 the rate on US highways (see safety comparison). For a more conservative comparison, we could turn to the US experience of 1995. Before November 1995, the US federal government limited urban highway speeds to 55 mph, with 65 mph allowed only on rural stretches. When these limits were removed, several states left the speed limits in place, but many others raised their urban speed limits to 65 mph, and raised rural limits to 70 mph. Some western states went further and raised rural speed limits to 75 mph. The effect of these changes is seen on the graph above, copied from the Traffic Operations safety laboratory report. Depending on how you analyze the data, there was either a 2% jump (institute of highway safety) in highway deaths or perhaps a 5% jump. These numbers translate to a 3 or 6% jump because the states that did not raise speeds saw a 1% drop in death rates. Based on a 6% increase, I’d expect higher highway speed limits would cost some 2400 additional lives. To me, even this seems worthwhile when balanced against 10,000 lives lost to the life-sucking destruction of slow driving.

Texas has begun raising speed limits. Texans seem happy.

Texas has begun raising speed limits. So far, Texans seem happy.

There are several new technologies that could reduce automotive deaths at high speeds. One thought is to only allow high-speed driving for people who pass a high-speed test, or only for certified cars with passengers who are wearing a 5-point harness, or only on roads. More relevant to my opinion is only on roads with adequate walk-paths — many deaths involve pedestrians. Yet another thought; auto-driving cars (with hydrogen power?). Computer-aided drivers can have split second reaction times, and can be fitted with infra-red “eyes” that see through fog, or sense the motion of a warm object (pedestrian) behind an obstruction. The ability of computer systems to use this data is limited currently, but it is sure to improve.

I thought some math might be in order. The automotive current that is carried by a highway, cars/hour, can be shown to equal to the speed of the average vehicle multiplied by the number of lanes divided by the average distance between vehicles. C = v L/ d.

At low congestion, the average driving speed, v remains constant as cars enter and leave the highway. Adding cars only affects the average distance between cars, d. At some point, around rush hour, so many vehicles enter the highway that d shrinks to a distance where drivers become uncomfortable; that’s about d = 3 car lengths, I’d guess. People begin to slow down, and pretty soon you get a traffic jam — a slow-moving parking lot where you get less flow with more vehicles. This jam will last for the entirety of rush hour. One of the nice things about auto-drive cars is that they don’t get nervous, even at 2 car lengths or less at 70 mph. The computer is confident that it will brake as soon as the car in front of it brakes, maintaining a safe speed and distance where people will not. This is a big safety advantage for all vehicles on the road.

I should mention that automobile death rates vary widely between different states (see here), and even more widely between different countries. Here is some data. If you think some country’s drivers are crazy, you should know that many of the countries with bad reputations (Italy, Ireland… ) have highway death rates that are lower than ours. In other countries, in Africa and the mid-east death rates per car or mile driven are 10x, 100x, or 1000x higher than in the US. The countries have few cars and lots of people who walk down the road drunk or stoned. Related to this, I’ve noticed that old people are not bad drivers, but they drive on narrow country roads where people walk and accidents are common.

Robert Buxbaum, June 6, 2018.