Author Archives: R.E. Buxbaum

About R.E. Buxbaum

Robert Buxbaum is a life-long engineer, a product of New York's Brooklyn Technical High School, New York's Cooper Union to Science and Art, and Princeton University where he got a PhD in Chemical Engineering. From 1981 to 1991 he was a professor of Chemical Engineering at Michigan State, and now runs an engineering shop in Oak Park, outside of Detroit, Michigan. REB Research manufactures and sells hydrogen generation and purification equipment. He's married with 3 wonderful children who, he's told, would prefer to not be mentioned except by way of complete, unadulterated compliments. As of 2016, he's running to be the drain commissioner/ water resources commissioner of Oakland county.

A high minimum wage killed Detroit, perhaps Seattle and NYC too.

In July, eitght years ago, Detroit filed for bankruptcy protection. The US was well into an economic expansion, but the expansion had largely bypassed Detroit. The Detroit area unemployment rate was 9.7%, and the Detroit city rate was 17%, among the highest in the nation. Tax income was not sufficient to pay retirement or current employees. The city was riven by corruption and crime, and attendance in school was dismal, less that 25% in some districts, about 55% as an overall average. Kids no longer saw a value in education. After bankruptcy, things started to improve dramatically.

Detroit area unemployment rate, 2005 to 2021.

The largest cause of the problem, and of the solution, in my opinion, was a high Detroit minimum wage that applied before bankruptcy and that was voided by bankruptcy. It was called a “living wage”. In 2013 it was $16/ hour and applied to any business that dealt with the city and did not offer health insurance (see more on the specifics here).The stated purpose was to insure that all workers could support a family of four in some middle-class standard, by one wage-earner working 40 hours per week. It was a view of Detroit family life and economic need that didn’t match Detroit reality. In practice most of Detroit were not 4 person, one wage-earner households. It meant that most Detroiters could not find jobs, since most companies worked in some way with the city. The only workers who could find jobs were those with special skills or political connections. The alternative was criminal business including drug sales, prostitution and burglary. The unemployment rate was 70% among Detroit’s teenagers.

The high minimum wage bought loyalty for Detroit’s political bosses; they gave out jobs for kickbacks, and some went to jail, including the mayor. Most Detroiters could not find jobs, though, and this especially hurt those looking for their first job: the job that would demonstrate that math and spelling were important; that you had to show up on time, dressed clean, and that you were not to insult the customers. High unemployment meant low tax revenue, made worse by high city employment costs for basic services: janitors, secretaries, and mail room personnel. The city was a mess.

When Detroit went bankrupt, among the first changes was to eliminate the $!6/hour living wage for employees and others doing business with the city. This helped bring the city budget into balance, and it brought in residents, businesses, and developers. By January 2020 Detroit’s unemployment rate had fallen to 6%, and Detroit metro unemployment had fallen to 4.2%, the lowest rates on record. Employment gives a motivation to stay in Detroit and to stay in school: there are jobs to be had for those who could add and spell. I covered these improvements here.

Seattle are unemployment rate 2015 to 2021. Seattle’s unemployment rate is now higher than Detroit’s.

Meanwhile, Seattle voted to raise their minimum wage to $15, with the change law taking effect in stages. The law fully came into effect three months ago, in January, 2021. New York voted for similar changes more recently. It is hard to be sure of the effect of the high minimum wage but already it seems to have hit employment. By the latest data, Seattle’s unemployment rate has risen to 6.9%. That’s higher than in Detroit, a real reversal. While unemployment in New York City has yet to rise much, they have seen a drop in rent rates while Detroit has seen a rise. New York’s are also moving to be more out of balance, something that leads to corruption and bankruptcy. We’ll see how this works out.

Robert Buxbaum, March 25, 2021. Among my first blog posts were complaints about Detroit’s high “living wage”, see here for example. As Puerto Rico slid into bankruptcy, I complained about the same thing.

The remarkable efficiency of 22 caliber ammunition.

22 long rifle shells contain early any propellant.

The most rifle cartridge in the US today is the 22lr a round that first appeared in 1887. It is suitable to small game hunting and while it is less–deadly than larger calibers, data suggests it is effective for personal protection. It is also remarkably low cost. This is because the cartridge in almost entirely empty as shown in the figure at right. It is also incredibly energy efficient, that is to say, it’s incredibly good at transforming heat energy of the powder into mechanical energy in the bullet.

The normal weight of a 22lr is 40 grains, or 2.6 grams; a grain is the weight of a barley grain 1/15.4 gram. Virtually every brand of 22lr will send its bullet at about the speed of sound, 1200 ft/second, with a kinetic energy of about 120 foot pounds, or 162 Joules. This is about twice the energy of a hunting bow, and it will go through a deer. Think of a spike driven by a 120 lb hammer dropped from one foot. That’s the bullet from a typical 22lr.

The explosive combustion heat of several Hodgdon propellants.

The Hodgdon power company is the largest reseller of smokeless powder in the US with products from all major manufacturers, with products selling for an average of $30/lb or .43¢ per grain. The CCI Mini-Mag, shown above, uses 0.8 grains of some powder 0.052 grams, or about 1/3¢ worth, assuming that CCI bought from Hodgdon rather than directly from the manufacturer. You will notice that the energies of the powders hardly varies from type to type, from a low of 3545 J/gram to a high of 4060 J/gram. While I don’t know which powder is used, I will assume CCI uses a high-energy propellant, 4000 J/gram. I now calculate that the heat energy available as 0.052*4000 = 208 Joules. To calculate the efficiency, divide the kinetic energy of the bullet by the 208 Joules. The 40 grain CCI MiniMag bullet has been clocked at 1224 feet per second indicating 130 foot pounds of kinetic energy, or 176 J. Divide by the thermal energy and you find a 85% efficiency: 176J/ 208 J = 85%. That’s far better than your car engine. If the powder were weaker, the efficiency would have to be higher.

The energy content of various 22lr bullets shot from different length barrels.

I will now calculate the pressure of the gas behind a 22lr. I note that the force on the bullet is equal to the pressure times the cross-sectional area of the barrel. Since energy equals force times distance, we can expect that the kinetic energy gained per inch of barrel equals this force times this distance (1 inch). Because of friction this is an under-estimate of the pressure, but based on the high efficiency, 85%, it’s clear that the pressure can be no more than 15% higher than I will calculate. As it happens, the maximum allowable pressure for 22lr cartridges is set by law at 24,000 psi. When I calculate the actual pressure (below) I find it is about half this maximum.

The change in kinetic energy per inch of barrel is calculated as the change in 1/2 mv2, where m is the mass of the bullet and v is the velocity. There is a web-site with bullet velocity information for many brands of ammunition, “ballistics by the inch”. Data is available for many brands of bullet shot from gun barrels that they cut shorter inch by inch; data for several 22lr are shown here. For the 40 grain CCI MiniMag, they find a velocity of 862 ft/second for 2″ barrel, 965 ft/second for a 3″ barrel, 1043 ft/second for a 4″ barrel, etc. The cross-section area of the barrel is 0.0038 square inches.

Every 22 cartridge has space to spare.

Based on change in kinetic energy, the average pressure in the first two inches of barrel must be 10,845 psi, 5,485 psi in the next inch, and 4,565 psi in the next inch, etc. If I add a 15% correction for friction, I find that the highest pressure is still only half the maximum pressure allowable. Strain gauge deformation data (here) gives a slightly lower value. It appears to me that, by adding more propellant, one could make a legal, higher-performance version of the 22lr — one with perhaps twice the kinetic energy. Given the 1/3¢ cost of powder relative to the 5 to 20¢ price of ammo, I suspect that making a higher power 22lr would be a success.

Robert Buxbaum, March 18, 2021. About 10% of Michigan hunts dear every year during hunting season. Another 20%, as best I can tell own guns for target shooting or personal protection. Just about every lawyer I know carries a gun. They’re afraid people don’t like them. I’m afraid they’re right.

Billionaire Democrats and union Republicans

In the last presidential election, the largest billionaires in the US were vocal Democrats, and two billionaires, Yang and Bloomberg were candidates. Bloomberg had been an anticrime Republican when he ran for mayor but in 2020 he spent $!B of his own money on anti Republican ads, and paid the debts of thousands of Florida felons who he thought would vote his way. It’s a strange new world.

Other vocal Democrats include: Jeff Bezios, majority owner of Amazon and The Washington Post, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook, Bill Gates, founder and largest owner of Microsoft (just today blasting the Republicans over global warming — Is that logical — is cold better?), and Warren Buffett who likes to note that he pays a lower tax rate than his secretary does (IMHO that’s because he games the tax system and pays no social security tax). Meanwhile union workers and white middle class folks were mostly Republicans in 2020.

Union leadership are still Democrats, but the last few elections saw union workers voting R. These were called “The basket of deplorables, unredeemables” by candidate Clinton. R support among black people is less than 50%, but growing too. it’s quite a lot higher than two decades ago. Many showed up at MAGA rallies, you’ll see plenty in videos at “the insurrection”. The only person shot and killed at the insurrection was a white woman, unarmed, shot in the face by Capital police — no charges filed, but the liberal press, who usually hate such things, was silent. Almost to the man, they sided with the police over the mob.

I notice that the Black Lives Matter rallies are populated with the well off and the well educated. A Princeton lawyer was photographed driving around with a box of Molotov cocktails, and his co-worker, another lawyer tossed a lit fire bomb into a police car. It used to be that Princeton lawyers didn’t do that, at least not in person.

Portrait of a Democrat. From the New Yorker.

It’s not like the platforms have reversed. The Democratic party was always for high taxes, high regulation, and for soft money that they could give away. They still are. In 1900 the call was for “free silver“, now it’s “stimulus money.” It used to be that rich people didn’t like this. They would point of that printing money didn’t add to wealth, but just redistributed it from those who had savings to those who did not. Now they uniformly blast anyone who doubted the wisdom of printing 1.9 trillion in new money ($6000 per person, of which $1400 is given to you), and going on to blast anyone who doesn’t like additional oversight to prevent the systemic racism they see in the less-well-off.

One reason these richest billionaires are no longer Republicans is that they are no longer involved industrial manufacturing in the US. Thus the regulations they favor don’t apply to them. In the olden days, rich people made steel or cars. Regulations were annoying. Rich industrialists had money in US banks. For them inflation was theft. Now rich people own intangible industries that largely operate outside of the country. What money they earn is earned off-shore, tax free. As individuals, they live on US debt, and possess little or no hard cash. Inflation helps them pay off their debt, and high taxes don’t hurt them. Buffett can be down-home and pro environment. He flies private jet to meetings on global warming while investing in overseas petroleum.

Elon Musk seemed like a Republican during the Trump administration, but not so much now. He still makes stuff in America, but has moved to manufacture abroad. In January, he said he was fired up for Biden. He has put a significant chunk of his wealth into bitcoins. Its a protection from the inflation caused by printing money, and it’s a bet that’s paid off handsomely. I expect that we’ll have billionaire Democrats and union Republicans for the foreseeable future.

Robert Buxbaum, March 14, 2021. It’s pie day. Eat a pie at 1:59:27. (Edited Apr. 28, 2021)

Saving the Mini, Resurrecting my MacBook.

Our company books are done on a Mac mini 2014 that was getting slower and slower for reasons that I mis-diagnosed. I thought it was out of space on the hard drive even though the computer said there was plenty. Then my MacBook started misbehaving too, slowing to a crawl with large web-pages (Facebook) and having trouble backing up. I feared a bug of some sort. Then, 3 weeks ago, the MacBook died. It would not boot up. When I turned it on, it showed a file folder with a question mark. It was dead, but now it’s back thanks to the folks at TechBench on Woodward Ave. I lost some data, but not that much.

As it turns out, the problem was not lack of space on the hard drive, but the hard drive itself. The spinning, magnetic disc that stores my data wore out. I should have seen the problem and replaced the hard drive, but I didn’t realize you could, or should. I replaced the hard drive with a solid state memory bigger than the original, and replaced the battery too. The computer is back, faster than before, and went on to replace the hard drive on the Mini too for good measure. That was 3 weeks ago and everything is working fine.

MacBook hard drive, 120 GB. I replaced it with a solid state stick that had three times the memory and was less than half the size.

I could have bought two new computers, and I have decided to replace the 2011 desktop Mac at work, but I’m happy to have revivified these two machines. A new MacBook would have cost about $1200 while fixing this one cost should have cost $250 — $120 for the hard drive cost and $135 for the fellow who replaced it and recovered as much data as possible. Replacing the battery added another $150 with labor. I saved 2/3 the price of a new MacBook, got more hard disc, and my old programs run faster than before. Fixing up the Mini cost me $250 (no battery), and everything works fine. Because the processor is unchanged, I can still use my legacy programs (Word, pagemaker, photoshop, Quickbooks) and my music.

I’d considered trying to do the same with a 2011 Mini, but Miles at the service center said it was not worth it for a 2011 machine. I have an idea to remove the mechanism and turn this into an external, bootable drive, while transferring the data elsewhere. I’ve done this with old drives before.

In retrospect, I should have made more of an effort to backup data as soon as there was any indication that there was a problems. It was getting slower, and I needed to reboot every other day. As the disc drive wore out, data was being read less and less reliably. Data correction ate up cpu time. The fact is that I forgot I had a spinning disc-drive that could wear out. At least I learned something: hard drives wear out and need replacing. When things break, you might as well learn something. Another thing I learned is about Apple; the computers may cost more than PCs but they last. In the case of my lap book, 2014- 2021 so far.

Robert Buxbaum, March 8, 2021. This isn’t that high tech but it seems useful. As a high tech thought. It strikes me that, just as my laptop battery wore out in 7 years, an electric car battery is also likely to wear out in 7 years. Expect that to be a multi-thousand dollar replacement.

IFL Science grows up.

I used to follow an Australian science blog, called “I Fucking Love Science.” Elise Andrew and her crew scanned the literature with a keen eye for the interesting. They regularly posted to Facebook and alerted science nerds like me to all sorts of new science bits with minimal commentary, minimal advertisements, and no politics. On average they found 6 or 8 really interesting posts, per week, generally one or two on fundamental physics, one or two on materials, one or two on biology or medicine, one or two astronomy, perhaps a chemistry post. My post about the color of the sky on Mars was ignited by a picture of the Mars sky that I saw on IFL Science — the sky was yellow, and I had just written about why the sky on earth was blue, and not green.

But, as with all quirky things, this one matured. The name changed to “IFL Science” — a change that I suspect was designed to promote sharing. There were more advertisements, and click bait — “this starlet lost a ton of weight,” “you won’t believe what this famous person’s partner looks like now,” etc. And there was politics, vaguely presented as science. Ms Andrew wrote more and more of herself, making herself into a personality whose travels and speaking tours would interest us. And there were non-science, guest bloggers too: People telling you who to vote for and more importantly who to vote against. All for the good of the world, she said, but it was her opinion, and not what I’d gone to IFL for.

The science got less technical, too and more popular. More pretty pictures and misleading headlines. Currently there is no math, no equations, no chemical diagrams. A top story of this week told of a semi-interesting approach for women with constipation — something that “would change everything.” When you click on the story, you find that women put their finger in their vagina and work out the poop that way, something called “splinting.” It’s sort of science, but not the sort that made me love science. Another top story — the top one from today is as follows:

Top story from IFL science today, Feb 28, 2021. Is there really no fuel use? No. The fuel is a battery, and the speed in 4m/s (9mph), and the plane looks nothing like this.

If you follow the links to here, it turns out that the plane (unmanned) looks nothing like this. It uses electric energy from a battery to move ionized air rearward at an efficiency far lower than with a propeller. The forward speed is 4 m/s (9 mph) and the maximum distance covered was 55m, half a Canadian football field. As presented in IFL science, it’s a misleading, non-math clickbait for something that’s interesting engineering — sort of. As for being Star Trek like, no. To move this plane, you need air.

I’m sorry, you can not make quantum mechanics for dummies. No dummy will understand it. You can make a book that’s not quantum mechanics for dummies, or a quantum book not for dummies. Just saying.

In the treatment of the work of the recent Noble laureates, IFL Science didn’t talk about the work so much as the biographies of the people, and their struggles, and that two of the people who won Nobels for their work in biology were women — for an advance related to CRISPERS– but that wasn’t science. I’d prefer to know what the advance was, and how it works. I’d prefer to figure out that these were women from their names or from the pronouns like, “she” or “her”. There was also no information about other two researchers (males, I assume, or perhaps females who had less-interesting biographies?). It was the same with the Physics Nobel except that I already knew there was a black hole at the center of the galaxy, and that those who found it are long dead. Instead the Note Prize was being awarded for a photograph of the black hole. Interesting (sure doesn’t look like a black hole to me). Is there something they learn from the photo. I’ve noted that we are likely within a black hole, and I show why this is using some, not too difficult math.

Having griped along this way, I have to say that that IFL isn’t that bad, it’s just non-mathy, popular, and a little grown up. That’s sad, but it’s not toxic. Grownups make money, and please customers, and that’s how it goes. To quote a wonderful book, The outsiders, “Nothing gold can stay.” In my own blog, I try to be more math-y, and more science-y. My model is Isaac Asimov, a writer who excited me to love science from when I was 8 to when I entered college, nine years later (1972). He would die of AIDS from a transfusion, 20 years after that.

Robert Buxbaum, February 28, 2021

is a colder world better.

For the last several years it has been claimed that some 98% of legitimate scientists believe it is a major need to reduce CO2 output so as to stop the world from getting warmer. When Trump visited the pope 4 yers ago, the pope would not speak to him expect to hand him his anti-global warming letter he’d written, “Laudato Si” and to tell Trump to get on board to stop global warming. Trump said he would read the letter.

Trump visits the pope, and the pope does not look happy

I’m not a fan of science established by Papal dictate based on an informal poll of experts, especially here where the minority includes some of the greatest minds of the 20th century, and the poll is taken by Al Gore’s science expert, but that’s where we are when it comes to science and politics. I also find it that the pope blames the US for global warming but not China when the the majority of CO2 came from China, a country committed to increasing its use of coal. But be this as it may be — the pope doesn’t blame China for imprisoning Catholics either, most recently the editor of Hong Kong’s most widely read newspaper.

So I thought I take a step back to look at the desirability of making the world colder. Is a colder world a better world? Sad pictures of polar bears are presented in favor of the colder world, but for all I know, polar bears prefer it warm. Their numbers are increasing.

Paul McCarthy lyrics; Hey Jude.

If we had a global climate adjustment knob somewhere, a magic knob allowing you to make the world warmer or colder by turning it right, or left, I doubt the consensus would be to turn the knob left. There is no real logic to cold being good, but there is a line in “Hey Jude”: “…It’s a fool who plays it cool, by making his world a little colder.” And Svente Arrhenius, one of the great scientists of 100 years ago, said he preferred a warm earth to a cold one to avoid disease and starvation. When the climate turns colder, the result is disease and famine as crops fail and animals freeze. It’s not an option that I’d think most people would prefer. given my choice, I would prefer things a little warmer.

I should also note that our ability to fine tune the climate is not what we’d think. The world climate is chaotic, and there is no reliable knob. Historically, the most common setting is ice-age, and that’s a setting that most people really don’t like.

Robert Buxbaum, February 20, 2021.

Scouting is OK and doing fine.

The Boy Scouts of America filed for bankruptcy some months ago, and I’d began this article as a project to discover what went wrong. They have gotten mountains of bad press amidst land sales and lost membership, and there is a class action law suit over sexual abuse. Everything about this suggested that scouting had lost its way, and I thought I explore what. My sense after some searching is that scouting is doing fine, serving its members despite its troubles and growing in part because of them.

Baden-Powell in Africa his Stetson The Boy Scout retained much form Baden-Powell, including the hat.

The basic idea of scouting was to provide an environment where boys would d become men, learning to be prepared, and be helpful, decent, active human beings. Some details have changed, but the goal remains, and I’d say they are reasonably successful. But that’s getting ahead. I’m better off starting my story by describing two army scouts, one British one American, who met fighting the Boer wars in the late 1890s. The American was an Indian-raised cowboy, a US army scout named Fredrick Burnham. He joined the British in South Africa as a scout against the natives and Dutch (The Boers). He was good at it, gaining valuable information, leading raids, and blowing things up. Such activities made him a hero of boys of a previous generation, but leaves current sensitivities a bit on edge.

The other scout was his boss, lieutenant general Robert Baden-Powell, an excellent scout himself, but also and organizer, artist, writer, speaker, and spy. He’d run intelligence in India, and now ran it in Africa, spying on the Boers and leading others like Burnham to do the same. Burnham taught Baden-Powell survival techniques he’d learned from the Indians, including “woodcraft”. Baden-Powell brought organization and a positive, faith-based attitude towards difficult situations; “Be prepared”

Frederick Russell Burnham with his signature Stetson campaign hat. The hat and curchif would become part of the Scout uniform, and the woodcraft methods of tracking and survival would become central to Boy scouting, both in the US and in England.

Baden-Power also wrote a book on military scouting illustrated with his own drawings, it became a hit with young, male readers in turn of the century England. Retiring from the military, Baden-Powell noted the enthusiasm among boys and put together a military-style scout-camp for boys on Brownsea Island, UK. From there, scouting grew: in numbers, in properties, and in scope. Baden-Powell devised the oath: “On my honor, I will do my best; To do my duty to God and my country and to obey the Scout Law; To help other people at all times; To keep myself physically strong, mentally awake and morally straight.” It was the embodiment of a positive, active, masculine life — but it appealed to women too. A few years later “Girl Guides” were founded in England; Boy Scouts and “Girl Scouts” were founded in the US as independent, parallel organizations. So what went wrong?

It is clear that some of the military aspects of scouting are out of tune with current, non militarism, but that’s not something quite new. Perhaps, I thought, the current problems came because of gender dysphoria – -that active masculinity is somewhat out of fashion, as is the white-supremacy at the heart of the Boer war. Then I thought that, perhaps the problem was when the organization accepted women, and thus it wasn’t for boys, uniquely, or that it had dropped the physical requirements, or the belief in God. What was left. Perhaps the problem was poor financial management, or that sex-laws had become a minefield with #metoo and transgender. These are all problems, but not exactly new, and I no longer see them as problems with Scouts as such.

Boys still want to be active and relevant, and seem to still take to woodcraft even if they realize that woodcraft isn’t likely to be that useful. It is enough that woodcraft is sometimes useful, and that it’s fun and provides a training for other things. Though boy-girl interactions are fraught, I no longer see it as a problem. Scouting provides an avenue to maturity, and If the particulars of maturity have changed, the general attraction has not. That numbers are down is not a problem either. Some religious groups have left, particularly the Mormons, and some scouts have moved on to other activities: soccer, tennis, band, etc. Even with these other avenues, there are still some 4 million Scouts in the US including Scouts BSA and Girl Scouts. After 100 years, that’s not a failing organization.

A lot of the bad press comes, I think, from the fact that things changed fast in the US, far faster than in British version of scouting. In Britain, gay leaders were accepted in the 1980s; the US didn’t accept them till 2015. British scouting accepted girls in the 1970s, the Boy Scouts didn’t admit them till 2018, and didn’t accept transgender members till 2019. It was all so sudden. US scouting changed their name then and dropped the belief in God, also the need for wood lore and swimming. The rapid changes left older leaders dazed, but were probably for the best, and over-due. The law suits and bankruptcy also seems to have caused more trouble to the leaders than for the scouts; scout troops were always fairly autonomous.

As for the military aspect, some of it remains, and I get no sense that it’s resented. it seems to help distinguish the Boy Scouts (Scouting BSA) from the Girl Scouts; Girl Scouts focuses on economics and social activism, while Scouting BSA has been able to use the military preparedness to position itself as the more rugged alternative, and the more masculine, even if it accepts girls.

Some in management would like to go further away from Badden-Powell’s Boer-war outlook, to be more like the Girl Scouts. In Market Week, the Scouts’ director of communications claims to have …”positioned BSA to be the primary internet organization that serves diversity and deprived communities.” That sounds like a me-too to Girl Scouting, and the Girl Scouts have filed suit to prevent it.

In terms of predators and law suits, while one could claim that scouting should have done better, I think the troops themselves did well, though the upper management fell short, and tried to protect their own. Still, it is something of a defense to say you tried your best in an uncertain situation. There are no claims that leaders encouraged pederasts. The only claim is that they did not do enough to prevent them. While not everyone did their best, many did. Pederasts are drawn to kids organizations, and there is always be a tension between inclusiveness and protection. I’m reminded of the Be Prepared song (Tom Lehrer). it seems appropriate to the new scouting.

Robert Buxbaum, February 12, 2021

Chinese billionaires keep disappearing with facebook twitter’s help. Alibaba’s Jack Ma is the latest.

Jack Ma, disappeared billionaire owner of Alibaba.

Every 25 years or so, for the past 1500 years China gets a new dictator who rounds up the rich and famous for loyalty trials, imprisonment. and worse. This was true of Li Ping following Tianamin Square, and Mao Zedong who killed some 75 million as part of his 10,000 flowers, great leap purges. The current dictator, Jenping Xi. Like, has been rounding up anyone he worries about, and that’s basically anyone he might worry about. The latest is Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba, China’s version of e-bay and Amazon. Until his disappearance, he was the richest person in China.

Ma had not been seen in public since October 2020, when he and two top lieutenants of Alibaba were called to meet with regulators. He reappeared months later in a 40 second video (some say a hostage video) to say he is more rested now, and that he is positive that China’s regulators do not stifle innovation. As typical for China, there is no information about his whereabouts. What’s novel is that US media companies are involved helping Xi to trace potential opposition and keep questions out of the press. This includes Google, Twitter, and Facebook, as well as US media outlets.

71st Cannes Film Festival - Screening of the film "Ash Is Purest White" (Jiang hu er nv) in competition - Red Carpet Arrivals - Cannes, France, May 11, 2018. Fan Bingbing poses.
China’s biggest starlet, Fan Bingbing, vanished from sight and the internet for months. She may have said something critical, but has reappeared and recanted it.

In the past the news and social media would have been full of negative comments about China, and Ma’s detention , both from within and without. Now there is hardly anything and what little there is, is mildly positive about Xi. For three months there have been no e-mail or published tweets or Facebook posts from Ma or his lieutenants. Similarly, there is no room for negative speculation within China, and little within the US. The company’s planned IPO was cancelled, one that could have been the richest in history, but this fact got virtually no press, not in China, not in the US. Regulators cancelled it just two days before the start of trading. You’d expect screams from inside and outside China; instead, the story has been covered only briefly by CNN and the Financial Times, generally putting a pro-China spin on it. They stress the importance of regulations and avoiding monopolies, and don’t mention that Alibaba competes with Amazon, e-bay and Walmart. The expectation is that Ma and his higher-ups will be found guilty of monopoly trading and abuse of power. Under Xi, these crimes that have sent corporate leaders to prison for 12 to 20 years.

Ren Zhiqiang, missing billionaire, sentenced to 18 years.

Consider the fate of Ren Zhiqiang, the 69 year old chairman of Huayuan property conglomerate. It was one of the largest property groups in China, but Ren vanished in March 2020 after being heard to have complained about how the government was handling COVID-19. He was expelled from the communist party, and in September 2020 sentenced to 18 years in jail for “taking bribes and abuses of power.” There was hardly a trial, and as with Jack Ma, Facebook and Twitter helped the party silence Ren and his supporters. The result is that he had no recourse to the court of public opinion. About a month later, Facebook and Twitter did the same to Donald Trump, banning him for life from Facebook, Twitter. All other platforms joined, these included Snap and Reddit. As in China they also banned his main lieutenants and his main supporters, including the my-pillow man. The internet services also closed (deplatformed) Parler, the only competing web-service that allowed Trump and his supporters to post.

It can help to have public outcry, as Xi found after he disappeared China’s most popular movie starlet, Fan Bingbing in July 2018. Fan is a star of Chinese TV and movies and appears in Iron Man II and X-Men. As with Ma and Ren, Facebook and Twitter removed all posts, comments, questions, and complaints about Fan, releasing only the official statement that she was under investigation and taking a break. Unlike Ren, Fan reappeared a year later, April 2019 with no official charges filed. Nor has there been any official report. She has apologized for misdoings. and is supposed to have paid some $150 million, but she’s free. My guess is that the pressure of 100 million Chinese fans is what helped Ms Fan to un-vanish.

Chairman of Anbang Insurance Group Wu Xiaohui attends the China Development Forum in Beijing, China
Had Wu Xiaohui, former chairman of Anbang Insurance Group, and owner to the Waldorf Astoria.

A less positive outcome is when there is no outcry. When Wu Xiaohui, chairman of the Anbang Insurance Group, and the owner of New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel vanished for two years. When he reappeared, he faced a quiet trial that sentenced him to 18 years in prison. The usual charges: fraud and abuse of power. Wu’s mother claimed she had no access to her son for those two years. Anbang, once one of the largest insurers in China, was taken over by its insurance regulator who has applied to liquidate the company. Why liquidate? Probably because it’s the easiest way to remove potential Wu loyalists.

In the US, there are some claims that Facebook, Twitter, Reditt and a few other companies have too much control of public discourse. Others claim that these companies exercise too little control. These companies claim the right to silence opinion they consider untrue, or inflammatory, and they have been allowed to deplatform their competition. Congress is moving to be in charge of who they silence. I’ve found they don’t like pro-Israel sentiments. While they don’t put words in my mouth, I don’t like it that they take words out of my mouth. As a result, I’ve cut back on my use of these platforms.

Jack Ma reappeared after 3 months in this 40 second video, shot from an unknown location. To me, it looks like a hostage video, “I’m well and being well treated …” Biden has argued that now is the time to move closer to China.

As I write this, Trump is impeached for the second time. The charge is inflammatory speech. Like with abuse of power, there is no way to prove you didn’t do it, especially after the internet giants silence you and anyone stupid enough to support you. Among Biden’s first acts is to undo Trump dictates that kept China from providing the technology underlying the US power and water system. Clearly Biden feels it is important that China should have a hand in this. I surely am not going to suggest that the bribes Biden is supposed to have received from China played any role. I will say that, when I ran for water commission, one of my goals was to help make the water system more resistant to cyber attack.

Dr. Robert E. Buxbaum. February 8, 2021. As an update, I see that Jimmy Li was arrested. He’s the founder of Hong-Kong’s most popular newspaper, Apple daily. No comment in the US, or from the Vatican. Li is Catholic, and the Vatican used to chime in when prominent Catholics were arrested.

My two-mode commode.

Our new, two-mode commode.

We just got a new toilet. Commonly called a commode, and it’s got a cool feature that I’d seen often in Europe but rarely in the US: two levels of flush strength. There is a “small flush” option that delivers, about 3 liters, intended for yellow waste, and a “big flush” option that delivers 6 liters. It’s intended for brown waste, or poop.

The main advantage of two mode flushing, in my opinion, is that the small flush is quieter than the normal. The quality of the flush is quite acceptable, even for brown waste because the elongated shape of the bowl seems better suited to pushing waste to the back, and down the drain. The flush valve is simple too, and I suspect the valve will last longer than the “flapper valve” of my older, one mode commodes. The secondary advantage is from some cost savings on water. That was about 1¢ per small flush in our area of Michigan, but the water department changed how they charge for water in our area and the cost savings have largely disappeared. Even under the old system, the savings in water cost amounted to only about $15 per year. At that rate it would take 15 years or more to pay for the new commode.

There is no real need for water savings in Michigan, and particularly not in our area, metro-Detroit. In other states there often is, but our drinking water comes from the Detroit river, and the cleaned up waste goes back to the river. It’s a cycle with no water lost no matter how much you flush, and no matter how big shower heads. I’d written in favor of allowing big flush toilets and big shower heads in our state, but the Obama administration ruled otherwise. Trump had promised to change that, but was impeached before he could. Even Trump had changed this, Biden has reversed virtually every Trump order related to resource use including those prohibiting China from providing critical technology to our water and power systems. Bottom line, you have to have a low-flush toilet, and you might as well get a two-mode.

Our commode has an elongated front, and I’d recommend that too. It can minimize floor dribbles, and that’s a good thing. The elongated shape also seems to provide a smoother flush path with less splatter. I would not recommend a “power flush” though for several reasons, among them that you get extra splatter and a louder flush noise. We’d bought a power flush some years ago, and in my opinion, it flushed no better than the ordinary toilet. It was very loud, and had a tendency to splatter. There was some slight water savings, but not worth it, IMHO.

Robert Buxbaum, February 8, 2021. I ran for water commissioner with several goals, among them to improve the fairness of billing, to decrease flooding, and to protect our water system from cyber attack.

Difficult chess puzzles and on-line games

While I was writing my essay on the chess ratings formula, I recalled enjoying the occasional chess game, and joined Chess.com, an intern chess site with many features. In one month I have played 12 games against humans and 5 or so against the computer. It’s fun, and Chess.com gives me a rating of 1323. It’s my first rating, and though it’s probably only accurate to ±150, I find it’s nice to have some sense of where you are in the chess world. But the most fun part, I find, are the chess puzzles; see some below. At first I found them impossible, but after playing for a bit, the ideas began to resolve, and I began to solve some. There’re not impossible, just difficult, and they only take a couple of minutes each. If you guess my name, you could win a match.

White to move and win. I see it now, but didn’t originally.
White to move and mate in 2. Magnus Vs Sergey, 2016 World Championship Tiebreaker. I see it!
This is from redditt. It took me forever to see through this.
White to move and win. I see it, I think.
white to move and win in two. I see it!
white to move and mate (in one?). I see a slower mate.
Mate in 3. White to move. I see it.

Robert Buxbaum, January 22, 2021