Robert Buxbaum is a life-long engineer, a product of New York's Brooklyn Technical High School, New York's Cooper Union to Science and Art, and Princeton University where he got a PhD in Chemical Engineering. From 1981 to 1991 he was a professor of Chemical Engineering at Michigan State, and now runs an engineering shop in Oak Park, outside of Detroit, Michigan. REB Research manufactures and sells hydrogen generation and purification equipment. He's married with 3 wonderful children who, he's told, would prefer to not be mentioned except by way of complete, unadulterated compliments. As of 2016, he's running to be the drain commissioner/ water resources commissioner of Oakland county.
When the UK left the EU, they gained some economic freedom, but lost easy access to their largest trade partner. They avoided having to follow the weird green policies of the EU, and no longer had to take low cost workers from Poland, Bulgaria, Tec, but having lost easy access to European trade, the assumption was that they would want a trade deal soon, with someone, and the likely someone was the USA.
At first things went pretty well. there was the predicted crash didn’t come, showing that the top economists were talking out their hats, or trying to scare people to stay in the EU. And then Trump proposed the first of four attempts at a trade deal, and things got ugly. All four attempts were rejected in a most-forceful and insulting way.
When Trumps first forays at a trade deal were rejected, he attempt a visit in the summer of 2017. The British Parliament forbidding the visit, accepting it only by a slim majority with the PM, May making no strong case. The mayor of London protested with a blimp of Trump as a big baby, and the Queen was not sure she had time for tea (she had time for Obama). Trump cancelled the visit, and May made deals with Norway, Switzerland, Israel, Palestine, and Iceland. Why these but not the US?
Over the next two years Trump made trade deals with Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Korea, trying The UK again in July, 2019. This time, Theresa May was more welcoming — she was facing an election — but the blimp was brought out again, and allowed to follow Trump around England, along with a statue of Trump on the toilet, tweeting, and making fart sounds while saying “witch hunt,” “no collusion*”, and other comic comments. All rather insulting, and deal with the UK was signed.
I suspect Trump’s offers to the UK were similar to those with Japan, and Japan seemed very happy with the deal (Biden offered them an exit from Trump’s, and Abe stayed — and proposed Trump for the Nobel Prize. So why the British antagonism? Even if they had to say no, why didn’t they arrange a location or treatment to say no politely. India said no to Trump’s trade deal, politely, in 2020, and to the UK too.
My theory is that Theresa May was taken by the anti-Trump propaganda of Europe and particularly of the German press (see magazine covers of the time). Germany was the leader of Europe (this status has diminished), and its press presented Trump as a racist murderer. May kept trying to get back into the EU, and may have thought that ill-treating Trump would help. Boris Johnson followed May, and was pro-Trump, but his cabinet was not. They acted as if they could recreate the British empire of Queen Victoria — a silly thought. They tried for free trade deals with India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, members of the old empire, but they never quite managed anything. COVID made things worse. The UK economy stalled, Johnson was removed, and the current PM, Rishi Sunak, seems to have got nowhere with Biden. Trump re-offered his trade deal during the visit, but he was out of office; Both Biden and Sunak ignored it.
The UK needs free trade with some substantial countries. They are a hub for manufacturing, information, and banking, currently without any spokes. India likely turned them down because the UK no longer has the power to protect them from enemies, China, Iran, Russia.., nor to protect their trade. Aside from rejoining the EU (good luck there), US is the obvious partner. If personality were the problem, there would have been a deal between Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden.
Since leaving the EU, the UK is doing slightly better than Germany, but that’s not saying much. British exports were helped by the cut off of trade with Russia, but that might not last, and London is having trouble trying to remain a financial center, fighting difficult travel and work rules, and the decline of the pound. Maybe it’s Biden’s fault that there is no deal. It’s hard to tell. Last week, the British Foreign secretary, David Cameron, came to visit Trump at Mar a Lago for a good feelings chat and to start on a trade deal should Trump become president. It’s not clear that Trump will become president, but there are at least hopes for a deal, ideally signed at a distance from the baby balloon.
Robert Buxbaum, April 18, 2024 *”Russian collusion” was a big deal at the time. A dossier was supposed show that Trump was a Russian agent. It turned out the dossier was created by Democrats working with the FBI.
In 1905 and 1908, Einstein developed two formulations for the diffusion of a small particle in a liquid. As a side-benefit of the first derivation, he demonstrated the visible existence of molecules, a remarkable piece of work. In the second formulation, he derived the same result using non-equilibrium thermodynamics, something he seems to have developed on the spot. I’ll give a brief version of the second derivation, and will then I’ll show off my own extension. It’s one of my proudest intellectual achievements.
But first a little background to the problem. In 1827, a plant biologist, Robert Brown examined pollen under a microscope and noticed that it moved in a jerky manner. He gave this “Brownian motion” the obvious explanation: that the pollen was alive and swimming. Later, it was observed that the pollen moved faster in acetone. The obvious explanation: pollen doesn’t like acetone, and thus swims faster. But the pollen never stopped, and it was noticed that cigar smoke also swam. Was cigar smoke alive too?
Einstein’s first version of an answer, 1905, was to consider that the liquid was composed of atoms whose energy was a Boltzmann distribution with an average of E= kT in every direction where k is the Boltzmann constant, and k = R/N. That is Boltsman’s constant equals the gas constant, R, divided by Avogadro’s number, N. He was able to show that the many interactions with the molecules should cause the pollen to take a random, jerky walk as seen, and that the velocity should be faster the less viscous the solvent, or the smaller the length-scale of observation. Einstein applied the Stokes drag equation to the solute, the drag force per particle was f = -6πrvη where r is the radius of the solute particle, v is the velocity, and η is the solution viscosity. Using some math, he was able to show that the diffusivity of the solute should be D = kT/6πrη. This is called the Stokes-Einstein equation.
In 1908 a French physicist, Jean Baptiste Perrin confirmed Einstein’s predictions, winning the Nobel prize for his work. I will now show the 1908 Einstein derivation and will hope to get to my extension by the end of this post.
Consider the molar Gibbs free energy of a solvent, water say. The molar concentration of water is x and that of a very dilute solute is y. y<<1. For this nearly pure water, you can show that µ = µ° +RT ln x= µ° +RT ln (1-y) = µ° -RTy.
Now, take a derivative with respect to some linear direction, z. Normally this is considered illegal, since thermodynamic is normally understood to apply to equilibrium systems only. Still Einstein took the derivative, and claimed it was legitimate at nearly equilibrium, pseudo-equilibrium. You can calculate the force on the solvent, the force on the water generated by a concentration gradient, Fw = dµ/dz = -RT dy/dz.
Now the force on each atom of water equals -RT/N dy/dz = -kT dy/dz.
Now, let’s call f the force on each atom of solute. For dilute solutions, this force is far higher than the above, f = -kT/y dy/dz. That is, for a given concentration gradient, dy/dz, the force on each solute atom is higher than on each solvent atom in inverse proportion to the molar concentration.
For small spheres, and low velocities, the flow is laminar and the drag force, f = 6πrvη.
Now calculate the speed of each solute atom. It is proportional to the force on the atom by the same relationship as appeared above: f = 6πrvη or v = f/6πrη. Inserting our equation for f= -kT/y dy/dz, we find that the velocity of the average solute molecule,
v = -kT/6πrηy dy/dz.
Let’s say that the molar concentration of solvent is C, so that, for water, C will equal about 1/18 mols/cc. The atomic concentration of dilute solvent will then equal Cy. We find that the molar flux of material, the diffusive flux equals Cyv, or that
where Cy is the molar concentration of solvent per volume.
Classical engineering comes to a similar equation with a property called diffusivity. Sp that
Molar flux of y (mols y/cm2/s) = -D dCy/dz, and D is an experimentally determined constant. We thus now have a prediction for D:
D = kT/6πrη.
This again is the Stokes Einstein Equation, the same as above but derived with far less math. I was fascinated, but felt sure there was something wrong here. Macroscopic viscosity was not the same as microscopic. I just could not think of a great case where there was much difference until I realized that, in polymer solutions there was a big difference.
Polymer solutions, I reasoned had large viscosities, but a diffusing solute probably didn’t feel the liquid as anywhere near as viscous. The viscometer measured at a larger distance, more similar to that of the polymer coil entanglement length, while a small solute might dart between the polymer chains like a rabbit among trees. I applied an equation for heat transfer in a dispersion that JK Maxwell had derived,
where κeff is the modified effective thermal conductivity (or diffusivity in my case), κl and κp are the thermal conductivity of the liquid and the particles respectively, and φ is the volume fraction of particles.
To convert this to diffusion, I replaced κl by Dl, and κp by Dp where
Dl = kT/6πrηl
and Dp = kT/6πrη.
In the above ηl is the viscosity of the pure, liquid solvent.
The chair of the department, Don Anderson didn’t believe my equation, but agreed to help test it. A student named Kit Yam ran experiments on a variety of polymer solutions, and it turned out that the equation worked really well down to high polymer concentrations, and high viscosity.
As a simple, first approximation to the above, you can take Dp = 0, since it’s much smaller than Dl and you can take Dl to equal Dl = kT/6πrηl as above. The new, first order approximation is:
D = kT/6πrηl (1 – 3φ/2).
We published in Science. That is I published along with the two colleagues who tested the idea and proved the theory right, or at least useful. The reference is Yam, K., Anderson, D., Buxbaum, R. E., Science 240 (1988) p. 330 ff. “Diffusion of Small Solutes in Polymer-Containing Solutions”. This result is one of my proudest achievements.
There have been many attacks on Jewish schools, homes , and markets. The press likes to blame white supremicists. But in the US, Islamicists and “Black Hebrews” have been the more regular assailants. Along with them are equal opportunity killers — those who kill, for no obvious reason. I note that mostly attackers don’t wear body armor, suggesting that a small revolver is the best choice for defense. The police come, but never in time.
The Monsey, NY, 2019 attack is fairly typical of a small-scale hate crime, though it was not charged as such. A member of the “Black Hebrew” movement who had attacked Jews in the. past, always released by police, waled into a Channuka celebration in a home in Monsey, NY, pulled a large knife, and stabbed the rabbi and four others before being chased out by folks with chairs. One of those stabbed died from the wounds, and several others spent time in hospital. The attacker, undeterred, drove attack another Jewish establishment, a nearby orthodox shul, and attacked there. It seems he’d committed an anti-Jewish stabbing shortly before this murder, but was released as always before the final, deadly attack. As with most black on Jewish attacks, this was not ruled a hate crime by the police.
Kessler before the attack. The claim is that his flag triggered an accidental attack by Professor Alnaji and his compatriot.
In the US Islamic on Jewish attacks tend to be ruled as accidents or legitimate expressions, and never as hate crimes. In Thousand Oaks California, 2023, Paul Kessler 69 was standing with an Israeli flag (right) when two Islamic activists crossed the street to shout at him. One of them, Professor Loay Abdelfattah Alnaji, hit him fatally on the head with a bull horn. The police ruled it accidental, involuntary manslaughter, despite that it was two on one, deliberate, premeditated, and the assailant kept yelling: “stop killing our children,” even after Kessler was down after being hit. Alnaji is free on bail of $50K. It was not ruled a hate crime.
Poway synagog shooter, Shot four, killed one before gun jammed.
The court reacts quite differently to white on Jewish crimes, ruling these hate crimes and punishing to the full extent of the law. An example, in Poway, CA, 2019, a white man, left, entered the Orthodox, Chabad synagog during services carrying a semi-automatic pistol. He shot and killed the first person he met, then shot the rabbi, entered a side room, and shot two more, an adult and an 8 year old. Then his gun jammed. At that point he left, and called 911. He claimed he hated Jews, Moslems, and President Trump. I note that gun jams are common in stressful situations, but police showing up in time is uncommon. A revolver for personal defense would’ve helped, but they are mostly illegal in California — not that the antigun laws deterred the killer.
Organized attacks are more deadly, and almost impossible to defend against. They tend to be Islamic. The recent attack on a music festival in Israel, for example. An air – land assault with machine guns by an armed group civilians (and UN workers!) that left 1500 dead, and 250 captured. Most of the victims were unarmed, but some were armed. They were over-run, and killed. It is very hard to defend against multiple assailants with training and the advantage of surprise.
A smaller-scale versions of these military stile Islamic attacks have play out regularly around the world. For example, Mumbai, 2019, two Islamic activists entered an orthodox Jewish hostel and school, and barricaded themselves in. Over the course of three days, they killed the rabbi and his wife, and five of their children. It was part of a wider program of well-planned attacks on Jews and Jewish businesses in India. The two perpetrators were eventually killed by the police, but the support network escaped justice. These are the folks who planned the attack, and armed the two; IMHO they are as guilty as the murderers.
The shooter who attacked the Hyper Kasher kosher store in Paris. He was trained, but worked alone, and wears no bulletproof vest. First he shot the person nearest to him and those behind the counter — anyone who might reasonably stop him. He then closed the metal grate around the store, started talking and killing for 4 hours. A well timed shot or two could have taken him out.
In Paris, as a similar Islamic general attack on Jews and businesses included the killing of 12 at the humor magazine “Charlie Hebdot” A trained Islamic activist entered a kosher market, “hypercasher” with two Kalashnikov AK47s provided by the same network who armed the Charlie Hebdot killers. Ownership of most guns is illegal in France, but that makes for easy targets. On entering, he immediately killed the person next to him and shot the two people behind the counter (one died). He then asked that the store be sealed by its steel gratings so he could keep on killing in peace. Secure in the market, the attacker then asked if he should kill someone else. When every shouted no, he laughed and killed the person. The killer talked and killed for the next 4 hours while the police gathered outside and watched. One unarmed customer tried to attack him, but was killed in the process, and jeered at besides — jeers seem to be common. Eventually, the French police killed the attacker and rescued those still alive. As with the Indian attack, the support network escaped or were found non-guilty. If someone had a pistol, maybe the killing would have ended quicker.
White supmemicist, right killed 11 in Pittsburgh. Survivor, center picture will testify. From the NY Post.
In Pittsburgh, PA, 2018, a “White supremicist” entered the “tree of life synagogue” with four semi-automatic pistols (three of them Glocks). He killed 11, going from room to room, sometimes talking to people. One survivor hid under the sink for hours, unable to reach his phone in deadly fear that it would ring and expose him. Eventually the killer just left, and as he did, someone with a gun shot after him, missing. Clearly, this fellow had that gun all along but was afraid to draw it, or could not find it. I’m glad he missed, by the way. If he’d hit the guy as he left, the shooter would have gone to jail. According to US law, you can’t shoot a fleeing attacker. My lesson is that you want a gun that’s small enough to hide well and draw easily, and you want to practice enough to be comfortable using it.
Another deadly attack from “Black Hebrews”, this time organized, military stile. In Jersey City, 2019, two “Black Hebrews” attacked the patrons of an orthodox, Kosher market, starting to shoot from the street, from 50 feet away. Once they were sure that no one inside was armed, they entered and killed three individuals who were doing their best to hide. The recent Gaza attacks used this military style, too. They attacked from a distance first to drive folks into hiding, then set the buildings afire or shot cowering individuals point blank. it’s very hard to defend against this sort of attack, especially if you are unarmed, but even if you are armed and trained.
Enhanced photo from the shooting at the Jersey City Kosher market. This is a rare example of military tactics being used. Two attackers of the “Black Hebrews” started shooting from outside the store, and only entered later to finish up.
The majority of other deadly attacks are by “Islamic youths” against older Jews. The youths will enter a house, threaten, kill, and leave. In one case the victim (a professor) was beheaded on the main street. He’d shown cartoons to his class that suggested that Islam is not peaceful. As with beatings that go with “Palestine Independence” rallies, these attacks are not considered “hate crimes,” but teen violence or political expression.
Hate crimes or not, they mostly target Jews, and they seem to be religiously motivated. Typically, it’s only one or two assailants attacking a chosen, visibly orthodox individual or place. Killing is mostly in close quarters over a relatively long period, often jeering the dead. So far, none appear to use a bulletproof vest. The police do not come on time, ever.
From the above, I suggest a stubby revolver for its concealment and reliability. Carrying a gun is not a good idea if you have children in the house, or if you spend a lot of time in schools, even though these are among the locations that need defending most. You need permission to carry in large venues, including big stores, synagogues and churches, as well as most clubs.
J. Edgar Hoover’s 1939, 32 caliber, “Pocket perfect,” Detective.
A gun suggestion is a “detective special” revolver like the S+W 642 “airweight, 14.6 ounces. It’s about half of the weight of a standard Glock, and shoots five bullets of 38 caliber. A step smaller are 32 caliber revolvers as were carried by J. Edgar Hoover. Smaller yet, are 22LR and/or 22WMR, revolvers like the S+W 351C or 351 PD, and all the NAA mini revolvers, 6 to 11 oz. They are easy to carry, non-obvious, and more reliable than a semi. Five to seven bullets can be enough. Robert Kennedy was killed with a 22lr. Semi-automatic pistols are good for the range, but they need to be racked, and tend to jam in tense situations.
I suggest a revolver that takes different loads. You can practice with cheaper ammo, and carry it loaded with more expensive. Especially with semis, make sure you can draw fast and shoot accurately without jamming.
Robert Buxbaum, March 10, 2024. A common claim in the press is that guns should be banned as in Europe, or highly regulated as in New York, New Jersey and California. I disagree. Europe has a very high rate of violent crime, including quite a few deadly attacks on jews.
In Q4 2023, BYD became the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, passing Tesla in world wide sales. They mostly sell in China, and claim to make a profit while selling cars for about half the price of a Tesla. They also make robots, trucks, busses, smart phones, and batteries — including blade batteries that Tesla uses for a variant in its Berlin facility. They are a darling of the wall-street experts, in part because Warren Buffett is an investor. BYD cars look to be about as nice as Tesla’s at least from the outside and sell (In China) for a fraction of the price. The experts are convinced enough to write glowing articles, but I suspect that the experts have not invested, nor bought BYD products. — What do I know?
BYD truck. It looks good on the outside. Is it competition?
Part of the BYD charm is that it is considered socially progressive, while Tesla is seen as run by a dictatorial villain. A Delaware judge who concluded that Musk did non deserve the majority of his salary, and confiscated it. There are no such claims against BYD. BYD also has far more models than Tesla, 41 by my count, compared to Tesla’s 4. The experts seem to believe that all BYD has to do is bring their low-cost cars west, and they will own the market. My sense is that, if that was all they needed, they’d have done it already. I strongly suspect the low cost cars that are the majority of BYD’s sales are low quality versions — too low to sell in the US. Here are some numbers.
Total number of vehicles made 2023: Tesla: ~1,800,000 BYD: ~3,020,000 (1,570,000 BEV)
Net Profit 2023: Profit per employee: Profit per vehicle: Tesla: ~$9.5B (9.7%). Tesla: $67,857. Tesla: $5,280. BYD: ~$3.5B (4.1%). BYD: $5,542. BYD: $1,160
Market share based on sales in western countries 2023: Tesla: US: 4%, EU: 2.6% BYD: US: 0%, EU: 0.1%
The most telling comparison, in my opinion, is BYD’s tiny market share in western countries. Their cars sell for 1/2 what Tesla’s sell for. If their low-cost cars were as good as Tesla’s, there is no way their market penetration would be so low. My sense is that the average BYD vehicle is lacking in something. Maybe they’re underpowered, or poorly constructed, unsafe, or unreliable: suitable only for China, India, or other poor markets. I suspect that the cars BYD sells in Europe are made on a separate line. Even so, customers say that BYD cars feel “cheap.” BYD charges more for these cars in Europe than Tesla charges for its top sellers, suggesting that these vehicles are of a different, better design. Even so, the low numbers suggest that BYD does not turn a profit on the sales. I suspect they do it for PR.
Both cars look sporty. Why doesn’t the BYD sell?
Another observation is that BYD produces 5.03 vehicles per worker, per year. That’s half as many as Tesla workers produce per worker-year. It’s also about half of Ford’s Rouge plant (Detroit) worker production in the 1930s. That Ford plant was vertically integrated starting with raw materials and outputting finished cars. This low output per worker suggests that BYD is built on low wage, low skill production, or equally damning, that none of these models are really mass-produced.
A first world market favors a polished product that your mechanic is somewhat familiar with. That favors Tesla as it has significant market penetration, and a network of mechanics. Also, Tesla has built up a network of fast charge stations and reliable service providers. BYD has no particular charging infrastructure and virtually no service network. Charging price and experience is a key decider among first world customers. No American will tolerate slow charging in the snow at a high price — especially if they must travel to a charger without being sure the charger will be working when they get there. Tesla has figured out how to make charging less painful, and that’s worth a lot.
Tesla might fail, but if so I don’t think it will be because of BYD success. Months ago the experts assured us that cybertruck would be deadly a failure. I disagree, but it might be. I don’t think BYDs will be better. Government subsidies have ended in many states and countries (Germany, California…) putting a dent in Tesla sales, and they are having manufacturing difficulties, particularly with batteries. These seem fix-able, but might not be. I see relatively little first world competition in the US EV market from legacy auto companies. Maybe they know to avoid EVs. They currently make decent products, IC and EV, but lose money on every EV. They treat EVs as a passing fad. If they are right, Tesla and BYD will fail. If they are wrong, Tesla will do fine, and they may not be able to make up their lost place in the market. As for BYD, given their low production numbers, they will need some 3 million new workers and many new factories. I don’t think they can find them, nor raise the money for the factories.
Most of the data here was taken from @NicklasNilsso14. All of the opinions are mine.
The Houtis, a Shia Islamic group, have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, hitting European ships, mostly carrying goods going between China and Europe. They use ballistic missiles plus cheap drones with great effect, targeted by an Iranian spotter ship in the Red Sea narrows, the Bab el Mandab. The US response is “Prosperity Guardian.” We’ve sent four missile destroyers. and the British one. These are arrayed along the entire coastline, too much coast for 5 ships to protect, and we try to shoot down drones and missiles. We manage to shoot down most of the missiles and and drones, but some always get through, and they mostly hit US and British targets. Recently the Maersk Detroit, a US flagged ship and 3 days ago, the British tanker, Marlin Luanda, shown below. It was carrying Russian naphtha headed for China. Some months ago, The Houtis kidnapped a British ship (Jewish owned) and took it to Yemen, as described previously.
British oil tanker, Marlin Luanda, on fire in the Gulf of Aden after being hit by an Iranian missile fired by Yemen’s Houthis. The tanker is hauling Russian naphtha, headed for China.
Iran supplies the missiles, and helps choose targets. According to Kissinger the aim of their attacks, and of the attacks on Israel, is to delegitimize Sunni Moslem countries like Egypt and Turkey that have made peace with Israel and the west. Whatever the motivation, Chinese and Russian ships are not targeted, but our ships are. We don’t attack the Iranian spotter for fear of starting a war. Instead we bomb Yemen, and protect ships carrying Chinese good and Russian oil. Currently 80% of the oil tanker transits of the Suez carry Russian oil (see below).
Most of the oil trade in the Suez is Russian — yellow line. Everyone else is shown in blue-black. It’s down to 0.5 ships per day, on average.
I don’t mind helping European countries get cheap Chinese goods, but I think the the main folks to pay should be the Europeans. We’re firing expensive anti-missiles and we’re showing the strengths and vulnerabilities to the Iranians, Chinese and Russians. Currently it’s our sailors who are at risk. The US trades with China too, but our China trade is not benefitted by ‘Prosperity guardian. Mostly our China trade avoids the Suez Canal, and comes around Africa to Savana or NY, or it comes across the Pacific, directly to Los Angeles. Our India trade most goes the same way. Some used to go through the Suez before the Houtis started attacking.
France and Japan have not joined prosperity guardian. Instead they have chosen to convoy their own flagged ships, even allowing the occasional stringer to tag along. Doing this, they use fewer ships, and it seems to work better than our approach. The picture at left shows a French courvair-escort escorting two French container ships. Note how much bigger the container ships are than the French warship. Should the Houtis’s missiles get too close to a French ship, I suspect that the French would retaliate hard. I think we should switch to following the French model and convoy-protect our shipping, plus whoever wants to tag along.
Map of Yemen and the Red Sea narrows.
Shipping, insurance rates have risen to about 1% of the cargo value. It’s now so expensive that no US cargo carrier will transit the area except when needed to supply our troops. At this point it’s worth asking, “Whose property are we guarding?” Also, is this really worth the lives of US sailors? If it is, why not hit the source of the problem — The Iranian spotter. The behavior of the French and Japanese makes sense to me. Biden’s behavior here does not.
Robert Buxbaum, February 6, 2024. Iran also funds and arms Hezbollah, a group that killed 3 US soldiers two months ago, and who killed several Kurdish allied troops in Syria just yesterday, and have shelled Israel intensely for months. IMHO, you want a few, well defended bases, not in harms way in Syria, but close enough to come back fast, in force.
Both Trump and Biden are unpopular. Academics and the press favor Biden, and find it inconceivable that anyone would like Trump but polls show him leading in the country as a whole, and leading in key swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, etc. Some 15.1% more Americans have an unfavorable view of Biden than a favorable view.
Biden’s problems include his age, the border crisis, and the economy. People say they find that essentials are expensive, while luxuries are cheap, and that Biden seems out of touch, perhaps that he favors the rich (the Democratic Party is increasingly the party of billionaires). Then there are religious objections, including to diversity, or gender-affirming child surgery, or abortion till birth and doctor-assisted suicide.
Trump leads in the polls, pointing to misuse of the Justice Department including Republican civil servants fired over phony mask mandates, the many illegal immigrants, the EV agenda, even Trump’s impeachment hearings that began as soon as he was elected, based on a made up “Russian collision” dossier. There’s a claim from Twitter, that the Biden’s DOJ demanded Twitter favor Biden, and then demanded that Trump be “deplatformed”, completely silenced before the election.
The Democrats fire back that Trump is ineligible to be president as he is a seditionist — citing an anti-confederate clause of the 14th amendment. They have so far, removed him from the ballot in two battleground states, Colorado and Maine, and are looking at removing him from the ballot in several others. These moves are surprisingly popular, supported by 49% of voters, despite the fact that Trump leads in the polls.
In New York, the district attorney ran on the platform that he would “get Trump,” that is put him in prison for something, and thus stop his presidential bid. NY has already pulled Trump’s business license and has indicted Trump on 48 felony counts based on the assertion that he paid a prostitute and called it legal fees on his internal books. They also claim he over-valued his buildings. No one has ever been charged or convicted on such crimes before this, but it seems certain he will be found guilty in NY. Either way, it’s is a big drain on Trump’s time and money, and the case allows the judge to command Trump not speak. Meanwhile, the ex-prosecutor has an open mike to claim he heads a crime family, now that he’s handed the case over to another DA. The judge has threatened to jail Trump for saying the charges are bogus and the treatment unfair.
In Colorado, the decision the case is stronger – sedition. They decision to remove Trump’s name from the ballot was made by a 5 to 4 vote in the Democrat-majority Supreme Court. In Maine the Secretary of State removed his name, acting alone. The claim is that what happened January 7 was not a protest, but an insurrection, and that Trump is guilty for it, along with many others who didn’t participate. Further they maintain that it is a false narrative that it was the FBI who entered the capital, fanning the flames as a sting operation against Trump. Similarly false is any claim that the Democrats skewed the election by stuffing the ballot box or overruling laws that required voter ID. That Trump says otherwise shows that Trump is a danger to democracy, they say. They find extremely offense that he calls them the “Department of Injustice.”
According to a January 16, 2024 Ispos, ABC poll, here nearly every voter who favors Biden favors removing Trim from the ballot. Most do not require that Trump be convicted. Not that it’s unlikely that Trump will be convicted of something. In NY it’s likely to be for paying a prostitute and for saying his buildings are worth more than the DA thinks they are. In Georgia, the DA took the unusual step of indicting Trump’s lawyers and his witnesses too. She thus prevents anyone who could testify for Trump from doing so. The Georgia DA seems to have done some other illegal things, but it seems certain that she’ll win her case, even if she goes to jail in the process. Several other battle-ground states’ DAs have said thay will remove Trump from the ballot, or try. Among these are Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia — states where Trump is the leading candidate.
Behi d the effort to remove Trump, guiltier not, is a generally low opinion of the legal system. Polls show that 53% of America believes that judges decide based on their politics, not on law. If Trump is found guilty, they believe it’s politics. If he’s found innocent, tit’s also politics, according to the majority of Americans. Given that folks are convinced the judges are crooked, they want to make sure that their crooked judges are the ones to stay in power, and those with other views are kept from office. It’s a tribal view of justice, not uncommon in 3rd world countries. Man for all seasons is a classic movie/ play about it.
In Russia and China the same tribal view of justice prevails, and the same story is playing out. Putin is running for president in 2024, and has take the precaution to jail his opposition as seditionist. Chinese chairman Xi has not only jailed his opposition, but also most major business leaders. The people in these countries don’t seem to mind, and seem genuinely supportive. The press there, as here, can’t understand why anyone would support anyone but the boss, and have warned against false news in an eerily unified voice.
Efforts are underway to keep Trump off the ballot in these states where he is winning, plus Wisconsin and Minnesota, states where he’s tied or losing by a small margin. A majority people don’t want him or Biden, so removal is popular.
Robert Buxbaum, Jan 31, 2024. To me, the removal of Trump from the ballot is related to the desire for term limits, and for our support, in Ukraine for the elimination of upcoming elections. Folks like democracy, in theory, but need to make sure the wrong person doesn’t win. It’s a paradox.
The glory of American screws and bolts is their low cost ubiquity, especially in our coarse thread (UNC = United National Coarse) sizes. Between 1/4 inch and 5/8″, they are sized in 1/16″ steps, and after that in 1/8″ steps. Below 3/16″, they are sized by wire gauges, and generally they have unique pitch sizes. All US screws and bolts are measured by their diameter and threads per inch. Thus, the 3/8-16 (UNC) has an outer diameter (major diameter) of 3/8″ with 16 threads per inch (tpi). 16 tpi is an ideal thread number for overall hold strength. No other bolt has 16 threads per inch so it is impossible to use the wrong bolt in a hole tapped for 3/8-16. The same is true for basically every course thread with a very few exceptions, mainly found between 3/16″ and 1/4″ where the wire gauges transition to fractional sizes. Because of this, if you stick to UTC you are unlikely to screw up, as it were. You are also less-likely to cross-thread.
I own one of these. It’s a tread pitch gauge.
US fine threads come in a variety of standards, most notably UNF = United National Fine. No version of fine thread is as strong as coarse because while there are more threads per inch, each root is considerably weaker. The advantage of fine treads is for use with very thin material, or where vibration is a serious concern. The problem is that screwups are far more likely and this diminishes the strength even further. Consider the 7/16″ – 24 (UNF). This bolt will fit into a nut or flange tapped for 1/2″- 24. The fit will be a little loose, but you might not notice. You will be able to wrench it down so everything looks solid, but only the ends of the threads are holding. This is a accident waiting to happen. To prevent such mistakes you can try to never allow a 7/6″-24 bolt into your shop, but this is uncomfortably difficult. If you ever let a 7/6″-24 bolt in, some day someone will grab it and use it, in all likelihood with a 1/2″ -24 nut or flange, since these are super-common. Under stress, the connection will fail in the worst possible moment.
Other UNF bolts and nuts present the same screwup risk. For example, between the 3/8″-24 and 5/16″-24 (UNF), or the #10-32 (UNF) and also with the 3/16″- 32, and the latter with the #8-32 (UNC). There is also a French metric with 0.9mm — this turns out to be identical to -32 pitch. The problem appears with any bolt pair where with identical pitch and the major diameter of the smaller bolt has a larger outer diameter (major diameter) than the inner diameter (minor diameter) of the larger bolt. If these are matched, the bolts will seem to hold when tightened, but they will fail in use. You well sometimes have to use these sizes because they match with some purchased flange. If you have to use them, be careful to use the largest bolt diameter that will fit into the threaded hole.
Where I have the option, my preference is to stick to UNC as much as possible, even where vibration is an issue. In vibration situations, I prefer to add a lock nut or sometimes, an anti-vibration glue, locktite, available in different release temperatures. Locktite is also helpful to prevent gas leaks. In our hydrogen purifiers, I use lock washers on the ground connection from the power cord, for example.
I try to avoid metric, by the way. They less readily available in the US, and more expensive. The other problem with metric is that there are two varieties (Standard and French — God love the French engineering) and there are so many sizes and pitches that screwups are common. Metric bolts come in every mm diameter, and often fractional mm too. There is a 2mm, a 2.3mm, a 2.5mm, and a 2.6mm, often with overlapping pitches. The pitch of metric screws and bolts is measured by their spacing, by the way, so a 1mm metric pitch means there is 1mm between threads, the the equivalent of a 24.5 pitch in the US, and a 0.9mm pitch = US-32. Thread confusion possibilities are endless. A M6x1 (6mm OD x 1mm pitch) is easily confused with a M5x1 or a M7x1, and the latter with the M7.5×1. A M8x1.25 is easily confused with a M9x1.25, and a M14x2 with an M16x2. And then there is confusion with US bolts: a 2.5mm metric pitch is nearly identical to a US 10tpi pitch. I can not rid myself of US threads, so I avoid metric where I can. As above, problems arise if you use a smaller diameter bolt in a larger diameter nut.
For those who have to use metric, I suggest you always use the largest bolt that will fit (assuming you can find it). I try to avoid bringing odd-size bolts into their shop, that is, stick to M6, M8, M10. It’s not always possible, but it’s a suggestion. I get equipment with odd-size metric bolts too. My preference is to stick to UNC and to avoid odd numbers.
Robert Buxbaum, January 23, 2024. Note: I’ve only really discussed bolt sizes between about #4 and 1″, and I didn’t consider UNRC or UNJF or other, odd options. You can figure these issues out yourself from the above, I think.
I predicted dire times for China six years ago, when Xi Jinping amended the constitution to make himself leader for life, in charge of the government, the party, the military, and the banks. Emperor, I called him, here. It now seems the collapse has begun, or at least stagnation. Chinese history is cyclic. Good times of peace and plenty give rise to a supreme emperor whose excesses bring war and famine, or at least stagnation. The cycle repeats every 50 to 100 years. Since Nixon opened China in 1973, the country has seen 50 years of prosperity and spectacular growth, but the growth has stopped and may be in decline. The stock market (Shanghai Shenzen 300) peaked in 2021 and has declined 50% from there. It’s down 30% for the last 12 months to levels seen in December 2010. US growth seemed slower than China’s but it’s been more steady. The main US stock market, the S+P 500, has more than tripled since 2010, up 24.5% this year.
Five years of the Shanghai 300 index with hardly any change. There has hardly been change in 15 years. One could argue that the lost decade is here and on-going. .
Each year Chairman Xi’s behaves more dictatorial. Last year he arrested his predecessor, Hu Jintao in front of the Communist party. He now tracks all his citizens actions by way of face recognition and phone software, and gives demerits for wrong thinking and wrong behaviors. You lose merits by buying western cars or visiting western internet sites. Taking money abroad is generally illegal. Needless to say, such behavior causes people to want to take money abroad, just in case. Last week, Xi proposed a limit on video game playing and clamped down on banks, demanding low interest rates. This is bad for the gaming corporations and teenagers, and banks, but so far there are no protests as there is no war.
Kissinger said that war was likely, though. Xi is building the navy at a fast pace, adding fast surface ships, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and new attack airplanes. They’ve added hypersonic missiles too, and added listening stations and bases. There’s now a naval base in Djibouti, at the entrance to the Red Sea, where they oversee (or promote?) Iran’s attacks on Western shipping. Then there are the new Chinese Islands that were built to take oil and fishing rights, and to provide yet more military bases on key trade routes. These could easily be a trigger for war, but so far just one military interaction in the region. Last month, the Chinese and Philippines navy clashed over fishing!
In the Gulf of Finland last Month, a Chinese ship, New New Polarbear, destroyed the offshore cables and gas pipes between Finland and Estonia, in protest of Finland’s entry into NATO. It’s belligerent but not war. Undersea cables are not covered by the UN charter, law of the sea. Then there is the evidence that COVID-19 was the result of Chinese bioweapon development, and the Chinese spy ballon that was sent over the US. We maintain at peace, but an unsettled sort of peace — is it a preface to war? Wars don’t have to be big war against the west or Taiwan, more likely is Vietnam, IMHO.
China’s negative population growth means that property values will drop along with product consumption. Kids buy stuff; old folks don’t.
News from China is increasingly unreliable so it’s hard to tell what’s going on. There were claims of a coupe, but perhaps it was fake news. Reporters and spies have been arrested or shot so there is no window on anyone who knows. There are claims of high unemployment, and COVID deaths, and claims of a movement to “lie flat” and stop working. Perhaps that was behind the ban on excessive gaming. Who knows? Xi claims that China is self sufficient in food production, but record food shipments from the US to China suggest otherwise.
Major businesspeople have disappeared, often to reappear as changed men or women. Most recently, Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong clothing magnate, was indicted for sedition by tweets. Perhaps he just wanted to fire workers, or pay down debt, or move abroad (his daughter is). Many businesses exist just to make jobs, it seems. Not all of these businesses are efficient, or profitable. Some exist to violate US patents or steal technology, particularly military technology. I suspect that China’s hot new car company, BYD, is a money-losing, job factory, behind Tesla in every open market. Some 91 public firms have delisted over the last two years, effectively vanishing from oversight. Are they gone, or still operating as employment zombies. Will BYD join them? If China manages to avoid war, I have to expect stagnation, a “lost decade” or two, as in Japan saw from 1990 to 2010, as they unwound their unprofitable businesses.
A sign suggesting that a Chinese lost decade has begun is that China’s is seeing deflation, a negative inflation rate of -0.2%/year according to the world bank. It seems people want to hold money, and don’t want Chinese products, services, or investment. Japan saw this and tried a mix of regulation and negative interest rates to revive the interest, basically paying people to borrow in hopes they spend.
In Japan, the main cause of their deflation seems to have been an excess of borrowing against overvalued and unoccupied real estate. The borrowed money was used to support unprofitable businesses to buy more real estate. This seems to be happening in China too. As in Japan, China originally needed new lots of new apartments when they opened up and people started moving to the cities. The first apartments increased in value greatly so people built more. But now they have about 100% oversupply: one unoccupied or half-built apartment for every one occupied, with many mortgaged to the hilt against other overvalued apartments and flailing businesses.
Chinese Dept, personal and corporate match Japan’s at the start of the lost decade(s). Personal debt is at 150% of GDP, corporate debt is at65% of GDP, all propped up by real estate.
As in Japan 30 years ago, China’s corporate + personal debt is now about two times their GDP. Japan tried to stop the deflation and collapse by increased lending, and wasteful infrastructure projects. People in the know sent the borrowed money abroad confident that they would repay less when they repaid. We are already seeing this; low interest loans, money flowing abroad and a profusion of fast trains, unused roads, and unused bridges. I suspect most fast trains don’t pay off, as planes are faster and cheaper. These investments are just postponing the collapse. China is also seeing a birth dearth, 1.1 children per woman. This means that within a generation there will be half as many new workers and families to use the trains, or occupy the apartments. As the country ages, retirees will need more services with fewer people to provide them. China’s culture promotes abortion. China’s working population will decline for the next 30 years at least.
Japan came through all this without war, somewhat poorer, but unified and modern. It helped that Japan was a democracy, unified in culture, with an open press and good leaders (Abe). There was no collapse, as such, but 20 years of stagnation. China is a dictatorship, with a disunited culture, and a closed press. I think it will get through this, but it will have a much rougher time.
Per pound mile of material, the transport cost by ship is 1/4 as much as by train, and about 1/8 as much as by truck. Ships are slower, it is true, but they can go where trucks and trains can not. They cross rivers and lakes at ease and can haul weighty freight with ease. I think America could use many more ferries, particularly drive-on, fast ferries. I don’t think we need new fast rail lines, because air travel will always be faster and cheaper. The Biden administration thinks otherwise, and spends accordingly.
Amtrak gets $30 Billion for train infrastructure this year, basically nothing for ferries.
The Biden administration’s infrastructure bill, $1.2 Trillion dollars total, provides $30 Billion this year for new train lines, but includes less than 1% as much for ferries, $220 million, plus $1B for air travel. I think it’s a scandal. The new, fast train lines are shown on the map, above. Among them is a speed upgrade to the “Empire Builder” train running between Chicago and Seattle by way of Milwaukee. I don’t think this will pay off — the few people who take this train, takes it for the scenery, I think, and for the experience, not to get somewhere fast.
There is money for a new line between Cleveland and Detroit, and for completion of the long-delayed, and cost-over-run prone line between LA and San Francisco. Assuming these are built, I expect even lower ridership since the scenery isn’t that great. Even assuming no delays (and there are always delays), 110 mph is vastly slower than flying, and typically more expensive and inconvenient. Driving is yet slower, but when you drive, you arrive with your car. With a train or plane, you need car rental, typically.
New Acela train, 150 mph max. 1/4 as fast as flying at the same price.
Drive-on ferries provide a unique advantage in that you get there with your car, often much faster than you would with by driving or by train. Consider Muskegon to Milwaukee (across the lake), or Muskegon to Chicago to Milwaukee, (along the lake). Cleveland to Canada, or Detroit to Cleveland. No land would have to be purchased and no new track would have to be laid and maintained. You’d arrive, rested and fed (they typically sell food on a ferry), with your car.
There’s a wonderful song, “City of New Orleans”, sung here by Arlo Guthrie describing a ride on the historic train of that name on a trip from Chicago to New Orleans, 934 miles in about one day. Including stops but not including delays, the average speed is 48 mph, and there are always delays. On board are, according to the song, “15 restless riders, 3 conductors, and 25 sacks of mail.” The ticket price currently is $200, one way, or about as much as a plane ticket. The line loses money. I’ve argued, here, for more mail use to hep make this profitable, but the trip isn’t that attractive as a way to get somewhere, it’s more of a land-cruise. The line is scheduled for an upgrade this year, but even if upgraded to 100 mph (14 hours to New Orleans including stops?) it’s still going to be far slower than air travel, and likely more expensive, and you still have to park your car before you get on, and then rent another when you get off. And will riders like it more? I doubt it, and doubt the speed upgrade will be to 100 mph.
Lake Express, 30 mph across Lake Michigan
Ferry travel tends to cost less than train or plane travel because water traffic is high volume per trip with few conductors per passenger. At present, there are only two ferryboats traveling across Lake Michigan, between Michigan and Wisconsin, Milwaulkee to Muskegon. They are privately owned, and presumably make money. The faster is the Lake Express, 30 mph. It crosses the lake in 2.5 hours. Passenger tickets cost $52 one way, or $118 for passenger and car. That’s less than the price of an Amtrak ticket or a flight. I think a third boat would make sense and that more lines would be welcome too. Perhaps Grand Haven to Racine or Chicago.
Route of the Lake Express. I’d like to see more like this; St. Joseph to Milwaukee say, and along Lake Erie.
Currently, there are no ferries across Lake Erie. Nor are there any along Lake Erie, or even across Lake St. Clair, or along the Detroit River, Detroit to Toledo or Toledo to Cleveland. These lines would need dock facilities, but they would have ridership, I think. New York’s Staten Island ferry has good ridership, 35,000 riders on a typical day, plus cars and trucks. In charge are roughly 120 engineers, captains and mates, one employee for every 300 passengers or so. By comparison, Amtrak runs 300 trains that carry a total of87,000 passengers on an average day, mostly on the east coast. These 300 trains are run by 17,100 employees as of fiscal year 2021, one employee for every 4 passengers. Even at the slow speeds of our trains the cost is far higher per passenger and per passenger mile.
The Staten Island ferry is slow, 18.5 mph, but folks don’t seem to mind. The trip takes 20 minutes, about half as long as most people’s trips on Amtrak. There are also private ferry lines in NY, many of these on longer trips. People would take ferries for day-long trips along our rivers, I think. Fast ferries would be nice, 40 mph or more, but I think even slow ferries would have ridership and would make money. A sea cruise is better than a land cruise, especially if you can have a cabin. On the coal-steam powered, Badger, you can rent a state-room to spend the night in comfort. Truckers seem to like that they cover ground during their mandatory rest hours. The advantage is maximized, I think, for ferry trips that take 12 hours or so, 250 to 350 miles. That’s Pittsburgh to Cincinnatti or Chicago to Memphis.
New York’s Staten Island ferry leaves every 15 minutes during rush hour. Three different sizes of boat are used. The largest carry over 5000 passengers and 100 cars and trucks at a crossing.
A low risk way to promote ferry traffic between the US and Canada would be to negotiate bilateral exemption to The Jones Act and its Canadian equivalent. Currently, we allow only US ships with US crews for US travel within the US.* Cabotage it’s called, and it applies to planes as well, with exemptions. Canada has similar laws and exemptions. A sensible agreement would allow in-country and cross-country travel on both Canadian and US ships, with Canadian and/or US crew. In one stoke, ridership would double, and many lines would be profitable.
Politicians of a certain stripe support trains because they look futuristic and allow money to go to friends. Europeans brag of their fast trains, but they all lose money, and Europe had to ban many short hop flights to help their trains compete. Without this, Europeans would fly. There is room to help a friend with a new ferry, but not as much as when you buy land and lay track. We could try to lead in fancy ferries going 40 mph or faster, providing good docks, and some insurance. Investors would take little risk since a ferry route can be moved**. Don’t try that with a train.
In Detroit we have a close up of train mismanagement involving the “People Mover.” It has no ridership to speak of. Our politicians then added “The Q line” to connect to it. People avoid both lines. I think people would use a ferry along the Detroit river, though, St. Claire to Wyandotte, Detroit, Toledo — and to Cleveland or Buffalo. Our lakes and rivers are near-empty superhighways. Let’s use them.
Robert Buxbaum, January 2, 2024. *The US air cabotage act (49 U.S.C. 41703) prohibits the transportation of persons, property, or mail for compensation or hire between points of the U.S. in a foreign civil aircraft. We’ve managed exemptions, though, e.g. for US air traffic with Airbus and Embraer planes. We can do the same with ferries.
** I notice that it was New York’s ferries, and their captains, that rescued the people on Sullenberger’s plane when it went down in the Hudson River — added Jan. 6.
Leading up to the Cybertruck launch 4 weeks ago, the expert opinion was that it was a failure. Morgan Stanley, here dubbed it as one, as did Rolling Stone here. Without having driven the vehicle, the experts at Motor trend, here, declared it was worse than you thought, “a novelty” car. I’d like to differ. The experts point out that the design is fundamentally different from what we’ve made for years. They claim it’s ugly, undesirable, and hard to build. Ford’s F-150 trucks are the standard, the top selling vehicle in the US, and Cybertruck looks nothing like an F-150. I suspect that, because of the differences, the Cybertruck can hardly fail to be a success in both profit and market share.
Cybertruck pulls a flat-bed trailer at Starbase.
Start with profit. Profit is the main measure of company success. High profit is achieved by selling significant numbers at a significant profit margin. Any decent profit is a success. This vehicle could trail the F-150 sales forever and Musk could be the stupidest human on the planet, so long as Tesla sells at a profit, and does so legally, the company will succeed. Tesla already has some 2 million pre-orders, and so far they show no immediate sign of leaving despite the current price of about $80,000. Unless you think they are all lying or that Musk has horribly mispriced the product, he should make a very decent profit. My guess is he’s priced to make over $10,000 per vehicle, or $20B on 2 million vehicles. Meanwhile, no other eV company seems to be making a profit.
The largest competing electric pickup company is Rivian. They sold 16,000 electric trucks in Q3 2023, but the profit margin is -100%. This is to say, they lose $1 for every $1 worth of sales –and that’s unsustainable. Despite claims to the contrary, a money-losing business is a failure. The other main competitors are losing too. Ford is reported to lose about $50,00 per eV. According to Automotive News, here, last week, Ford decided to cut production of its electric F-150, the Lightning, by 50%. This makes sense, but provides Cybertruck a market fairly clear of US e-competition.
2024 BYD, Chinese pickup truck
Perhaps the most serious competitor is BYD, a Chinese company backed by the communist government, and Warren Buffet. They are entering the US market this month with a new pickup. It might be profitable, but BYD is relatively immune to profitability. The Chinese want dominance of the eV market and are willing to lose money for years until they get it. Fortunately for Tesla, the BYD truck looks like Rivian’s. Tesla’s trucks should exceed them in range, towing, and safety. BYD, it seems, is aiming for a lower price point and a different market, Rivian’s.
A video, here, shows the skin of a Cybertruck is bulletproof to 9mm, shotgun, and 45 caliber machine gun fire. Experts scoff at the significance of bulletproof skin — good for folks working among Mexican drug lords, or politicians, or Israelis. Tesla is aiming currently for a more upscale customer, someone who might buy a Hummer or an F-250. This is more usable and cheaper.
Don’t try this with other trucks.
Another way Cybertruck could fail is through criminal activity. Musk could be caught paying off politicians or cheating on taxes or if the trucks fail their safety tests. So far, Cybertruck seems to meet Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards by a good margin. In a video comparison, here, it appears to take front end collisions as well as an F-150, and appears better in side collisions.
This leaves production difficulty. This could prevent the cybertruck from being a big success, and the experts have all harped on this. The vehicle body is a proprietary stainless steel, 0.07″ thick. Admittedly it’s is hard to form, but Tesla seems to manage it. VIN number records indicate that Tesla had delivered 448 cybertrucks as Friday last week, many of them to showrooms, but some to customers. Drone surveys of the Gigafactory lot show that about 19 are made per day. That’s a lot more than you’d see if assembly was by hand. Assuming a typical learning curve, it’s reasonable to expect some 600 will be delivered by December 31, and that production should reach 6000 per month in mid 2024. At that rate, they’ll be making and selling at the same rate as Rivian or Ford, and making real money doing it. The stainless body might even be a plus, deterring copycat competition. Other pluses are the add-ons, like the base-camp tent option, a battery extension, a ramp, and (it’s claimed) some degree of sea worthiness. Add-ons add profit and deter direct copying (for a time).
Basecamp, tent option.
So why do I think the experts are so wrong? My sense is that these people are experts because of long experience at other companies — the competitors. They know what was tried, and that innovation failed. They know that their companies chose not to make anything like a Cybertruck, and not to provide the add-ons. They know that the big boys avoid “novelty cars” and add-ons. There is an affinity among experts for consensus and sure success, the success that comes from Chinese companies, government support and international banking. If the Cybertruck success is an insult to them and their expertise. Nonetheless, if Cybertruck succeeds, they will push their companies towards a more angular design plus add-ons. And they will claim cybertruck is no way novel, but that government support is needed to copy it.
