Category Archives: Business

Sleepwalking into WWI, and WWIII

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A remarkable book by Christopher Clark on WWI posits that WWI was an accident, entered into, by sleepwalk. That is, it was not brought on by the elaborate plan of an evil aggressor, Germany or Britain, acting for dominance or economic gain, but rather that many individuals precipitated the deadly conflict through a series of ever-more dangerous, unplanned steps. The great diplomats went on vacation following the June 28, 1914 assassination, and each minor actor felt a need to push for a previous status quo, emboldened by the certainty that nothing bad would happen, since none of the last acts had caused any serious harm, at least not to them. There was, in Clark’s view, a general numbness caused by earlier wars: in China and Russia, in Serbia and Albania, and by Italy’s invasion of Africa, and the fact that there had not been a major, deadly conflict since the Crimean war. In this environment, one nation shoving another was seen as normal conflict until a war broke out that killed millions and toppled four empires: the Russian, Austrian, German, and Ottoman.

Princip shoots Count Ferdinand, June 28, 914. Getty Immage.

Clark points out, too that the Serbs, the folks who started the war, benefited from it. They escaped from imperial control by Austria and from The Ottoman Empire. Self determination was the motivation for the assassination, and it worked too, for the Czechs, Croats, Poles, and communists. In just a few years, the former group got their own countries, and the communists took Russia, something that no one saw coming in June, 1914.

The key sleep-walk steps to war were as follows: In response to the assassination, and a decade of earlier insults, Austria-Hungary, demanded harsh cocessions from Serbia that Serbia found unacceptable. Austria Hungary, backed by Germany and Italy, declared war on Serbia. Russia then mobilized its troops for war with Germany, so Germany declared war on Russia. France, an ally of Russia, then mobilized for war with Germany, so on August 2 – 3, Germany declared war on France and invaded Luxembourg and Belgium. Why Luxembourg and Belgium — because they would not allow free transport of German troupes to attack France. This forced Great Britain to declare war on Germany, which, finally, on August 6, brought Austria-Hungary to declared war on Russia, and effectively on the rest of the Allies. Over the next few years, we (the US) were dragged in along with Japan, on our side.

What a mess, but I fear we may be sleepwalking to the same, grim altercation via our wars in Ukraine and Syria. As at the beginning of WWI, there are two big power alliances: NATO including The US and most of Europe, versus a BRICS alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, Iran, China, and South Africa, along with a few minor others. The alliances are now three years into a proxy war in Ukraine, and another one in Syria. So far the declared combatants are Russia vs Ukraine, and Turkey vs Syria, but both sides keeps harassing the other at a higher and higher pace. So far, the sleep-walk steps were that Russia invaded Crimea, in response to some insult, and then attempted to take Kiev. The NATO alliance responded provided limited weapons to Ukraine. But, as these proved insufficient, we (NATO) provided greater and more deadly weapons, plus some volunteer troops. Meanwhile Russia’s BRICS allies are selling drones and missiles into the conflict in return for Russian gold, wheat, and raw materials. One of us, perhaps Ukraine, then cut the RussianGerman gas pipeline, while China seems to have cut important communications cables in the Baltic Sea.

North Korea began sending troops, 12,000 apparently, to fight on the Russian side, while Biden has sent long-range missiles to be used for strikes deep into Russian territory, on logistic centers, train depots, food stores, airports, etc. Putin has threatened a nuclear response, but has done nothing so far beyond sending a few long range, hypersonic missiles against civilian targets and against Ukraine’s power grid. He’s lost some 600,000 Russians, and has lost control of Syria and Armenia, so he has reason to be upset. Ukraine has lost some 400,000, and is still losing territory, but is still demanding total victory, the removal of all Russian forces, including those in Crimea.

The fight has spread to Syria, where the US, Israel, and Turkey have bombed in recent days, something I would call an act of offensive war against a sovereign unstable government. It’s not totally unprevoked, of course. Syria and Iran had been attacking Israel for years from Lebanon, by way of Hezbollah jihadists. Recently Israel took out a major fraction of Hezbollah, and the jihadists (Sunni) seems to have gone back to Syria, and have removed Assad, Syria’s Shia president for life, with help from Turkey, another Sunni Moslem country. This too is an act of war. Assad retains a sliver on the coast where the Russian bases are, the red areas in the map below, but he isn’t popular with anyone at the moment. The rebel leader, Abu Mohammed al Jolani, was a member of Al Quada till 2006, and then member of ISIS (ISIL) under Abu Baghdadi till 2016 at least. He’s still on our terrorist list, though he now claims to be a progressive Moslem. Not everyone is convinced, or happy with him. Syria is divided into seven (or more) control zones, shown on the map below. He could bring peace to Syria, but his path to peace is clearly further war.

On the legal and PR front, we’ve called Russian president Putin a madman and war criminal, we support Turkey’s efforts to overthrow Assad, but complain about his attacks on the Kurds, the yellow areas, and dark green at right, and we both applaud and condemn Israeli President Netanyahu for attacking Syria in the south, and in the red sliver, destroying Syria’s navy. Meanwhile, we (the US) have taken it upon ourselves to attack ISIS (ISIL) camps in central Syria, the grey areas, as well as attacking troops (Iranian Shia) entering from Iraq. By normal definition, this would put us at war with Syria, and perhaps with Turkey since we support the Kurds in their war against Turks.

Recently we’ve decided that the rebel leader, al Jolani, might be taken off the terrorist list subject to a few conditions (I wonder which). We (Biden, Shumer) along with the International Criminal Court have called for the arrest and imprisonment of Israel’s PM Netanyahu. The Turks too have join in on this, while somewhat cheering Israel’s destruction of Assad’s navy. The Druze, allies of Israel (and us?) seem to be at war with al Jolani, and likely the Turks and Iran. They’re in south-east Syria, near Deraa, not shown by a color on the map. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to make peace with al Jolani, to secure their military bases, while Iran (Shia) has reached out to al Jolani (Sunni) in an effort to join with him in a war against Israel. It’s not quite tipped into world war, but it seems awfully close.

One possible peace maker might be the incoming US president, Trump, but the outgoing president, Biden, has done his best to tie his hands, branding him as a felon and seditionist, as well as claiming he’s a Russian asset. European leaders don’t like him either. France’s Macron might a peacemaker, but Macron’s government has fallen. The Germans or Turks might be peacemakers, but the government of Germany has nearly fallen, the economy of Germany is hurting, and Turkey is a combatant, at war with the Kurds and Druze. Iran, and Russia, though not combatants, are directly involved in the fighting, and both countries are under sanction by the US and EU, and the UN is discredited from it’s years helping Hezbolla. I thus see no clear path to peace and no peacemaker who will dial back the drama before we sleep-march into WWIII.

Robert Buxbaum, December 11, 2024

Check the screws on your door locks.

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Original hardware brass screws from my door and locks, plus one of the stainless screw that I used as a replacement.

I just replaced the door knob assembly on my home and found that it was held in place by a faceplate that was attached by two, 5/8″, brass screws. These screws, shown at right with their replacement, would not have been able to withstand a criminal, I think. Our door is metal, foam filled, and reasonably strong. I figure it would have withstood a beating, but the brass screws would not, especially since only 1/4″ of the screw is designed to catch foam. Look closely at the screws, and you will see there are two sizes of pitch, each 1/4 long. Only the last 1/4″ looks like it was ever engaged. The top 1/4″ may have been designed to catch metal, but the holes in the door were not tapped to match. The bottom 1/4″ held everything. Even without a criminal attack, the screw at right was bent and beginning to go.

Instead of reusing these awful screws or buying similar ones, I replaced them with stainless screws, 1 3/4″ long, like the one shown in the picture above. But then I had a thought — what were the other locks on my door attached with? I checked and found my deadbolt lock was held in by two of the same type of sorry, 5/8″ brass screws. So I replaced these too, using two more, 1.75″ stainless steel. Then, in my disgust, I thought to write this post. Perhaps the screws holding your door hardware is as lousy as was holding mine. Take a look.

Robert Buxbaum, November 28, 2024

This is not the most important election, 1860 was

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Every year we hear the same claim: that this the most important election of America’s history. This year is among the more contentious than most, but the issues dividing the candidates are few. Both, for example, claim they will protect the border and spur the economy. In lieu of issues, there’s name calling. Trump claims Harris is as incompetent buffoon and Harris claims Trump is a fascist dictator. The rancor practically guarantees as they’ll be riots whoever wins but, as these things go, the election is less important, and divisive than ’64 and ’68, and in particular, the election of 1860.

Following the 1860 election, election seven states ceded from the union and we had a Civil War. Even the most bleak prediction for 2024-25 is for a more peaceful transfer of power. The election of 1860 had two major issues on the ballot; one was slavery or rather the expansion of slavery to the territories, and the other was implementation of the Morrill tariffs. These import taxes, proposed by Justin Morrill and passed but not yet implemented, would have raised the average agricultural duty from 15% to to 47%. Duties on durable goods wool rise to 65%, with the burden falling disproportionately on the southern states. Duties on durable goods. There was also a price schedule that would have prevented British shippers from minimizing the effect by falsely claiming a price far below market, something China currently does. In September 1860, Republican Leader Thaddeus Stevens told a New York City audience that “the Tariff would impoverish the southern and western states, but that was essential for advancing national greatness and the prosperity of industrial workers.”

Matching the two sides to the two major issues of the day, there were four major candidates for president in 1860. All of them won states. Lincoln carried the greatest number, 18, and won the most electoral votes, 180. He was for high tariffs and against the expansion of slavery. Second was John Breckinridge, the Southern Democrat, who carried 11 states and got 72 electoral votes. He was for the expansion of slavery and against the higher tariffs. Then there was Stephen Douglas, the Northern Democrat, who was for allowing the expansion of slavery, considering it a “states right,” and also for the higher tariffs. Douglas carried only one state, Missouri, with 12 electoral votes. Finally, there was John Bell, the Constitutional Union candidate, who carried three states, Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky, representing 39 electoral votes. He opposed the expansion of slavery and also the increased tariff, but he generally believed that compromise was always possible. This was the worst vote split in US history. The worst split I’ve seen was 1968, when three candidates carried states.

Had either Bell or Douglas won, I suspect that the Civil War could have been avoided, at least temporarily. Virginia, the most important of the slave states, had shown it was willing to accept an anti-slavery president so long as he did not impose high tariffs — tariffs that benefitted the northern industrial workers and manufacturers at the expense of southern consumers and agricultural producers. Lincoln’s victory precipitated the immediate secession of 3 states. Another 4 seceded after inauguration.

The south imagined they could walk away because that’s how they read the constitution before the 13th amendment. They imagined they could win a civil war because they imagined they had British military support. “Cotton was king,” they claimed. The UK prime minister, Lord Palmerston, had told secretary Adams, “We do not like slavery, but we want cotton, and we dislike very much your Morrill tariff.” As it was, the British stayed on the sidelines, in part because of diplomacy. Besides, the gunship Monitor showed that the North could sink most any British ship that entered US waters.

As for 2024, I expect there will be riots whoever wins, but nothing more. The parties are realigning significantly, as happened in 1964-68, and neither side much understands the appeal of the other. This seems like less of a wrenching election than in 1964 and 1968, though. In ’64-’68 US boys were dying in Vietnam in numbers, and black folks and their white friends were being lynched in the south. Nothing like that is happening today. Today’s riots have been fueled by nothing more than name-calling, fear, and the occasional assassination attempt. Mild, even compared to 1968.

Robert Buxbaum, November 4, 2024. Justin Morrill is mostly remembered today for the Land-grant college act of 1862. This created an agricultural -technical college in each state. I taught at Michigan State University, Michigan’s land grant university. I’m generally a fan of tariffs, both as an aid to the domestic economy and as a tool of foreign policy. I present these views here. I got these views from Peter Cooper.

We’re depressed, allergic, overweight, alone, and demented. What causes what?

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Among the wonders of the western world is how many people are allergic to nuts compared to a few decades ago, and to gluten, and to a host of other things that hardly anyone was allergic to 50 years ago. Perhaps it’s a change in perception, but it doesn’t seem that way.

When I was in public school in NY, back in the 1960s, there was a subsidized lunch program serving, every day, peanut butter sandwiches. Peanut butter is nearly totally fat. It was ladled each day, from a giant tub, provided by the USDA, and slathered on USDA bread along with jelly from some other vat. The smell filled the lunch area, and the fats and sugars filled our stomaches. No one seemed bothered by the nuts, and no one showed obvious signs of passing out. And despite the ill diet, we were less obeease than today. Even today, in poor countries, thy still serve massive peanut butter dishes, or bread covered in lard, and these countries show fewer allergy problems, and less obesity in general.

Perhaps it is the lack of exposure to peanuts in the US that caused the allergy (sounds almost plausible), and maybe it’s the dietetic food that causes obesity, and the glut of non-gluten that causes gluten allergies. These connections may be false, but If true, it would suggest we’re in for many more problems.

Moving to depression and dementia. We’re seeing more and more of both, and at earlier ages. In our era, virtually everyone over 80 shows signs of clinical dementia, often Alzheimer’s dementia, but the rates are rising, especially in those 55-70, and it seems most every adult is depressed. I don’t know why, though lots of people on the internet have speculative explanations. There are also cures, and perhaps some work. The research behind at least one of the best hopes for an Alzheimers cure was shown to be falsified, just made up. Not that funding was stopped quite, highlighting another problem that is becoming more common: people in trust positions no longer behave in a trustworthy way. Nor are they punished for lying. Strange to add that an anti-obesity drug, Metformin, seems to actually work at weight loss, and helps against Alzheimers dementia. Then again, from other research, it seems that obesity protects from dementia.

Some of the problem seems to be societal, a lack of friendship and companionship. I could imagine that isolation leads to dementia, depression, and weight gain. Another thought, pushed by RFK Jr., is that new drugs and vaccines are responsible for allergies and ADHD, along with changes in diet. It’s possible. At least some comes from early diagnosis, and a change in the definition of dementia. Perhaps that’s the reason for the significant difference state to state. Yesterday’s curmudgeon is redefined as depressed, and drugged (more in some states than others), and becomes isolated (again more in some communities). The disoriented, lonely patient is then given anti anxiety drugs and classified as a dementia patient. It happens in some cases, but there seems to be a rise in real dementia too: the sort of stumbling and blankness that reflects general brain deterioration. As for ADHD, I’m still not convinced this is a new real disease; it could be that’s how boys always behaved.

Would we be less depressed or demented or less autistic with different vaccinations, or different foods, or with more human interaction? Would people be less isolated if they were less depressed or autistic? RFK’s family now claims that RFK Jr is demented himself for even asking these questions. My guess, totally unsupported is that the rise in allergies, dementia, obesity, and depression are related somehow, but I’m not convinced that RFK Jr. has picked out the right connection. What causes what? Perhaps someone can use statistics, or biology experiments to help untangle this stuff. It seems horribly important to the majority of Americans.

Robert Buxbaum, Sept 10, 2024. There was a. bit of a joke in the last comments: my daughter got a degree in epidemiology, and is employed in part to answer just the sort of questions I’ve posed.

Veteran owned business startup ideas

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Someone has to repair airplanes, why not you?

I started my own business, rebresearch. It puts food on my table, and provides satisfaction that I’m helping people. It seems to me that other folks, particularly veterans, could benefit from owning their own businesses. Veterans seem to possess more of the skills for successful business startup than found the general population, and I notice that veterans start businesses more than most folk do, too.

Some 50% of returning veterans from WWII started their own businesses, I’ve read, and some were very successful. Walmart, the world’s largest retail company, for example, was founded by WWII Army intelligence officer Sam Walton. Then there’s FedEx, founded by Fred Smith, a Marine Corps Veteran of Vietnam, two tours, where he earned two Purple Hearts, a Bronze Star, and Silver Star.

Both of the above are in supply/ logistics, but veterans also open real estate shops, coffee shops, construction… Their success rate is higher than non-veterans perhaps due to skills they may not appreciate: physical stamina, organization, discipline, and the ability to “get the job done.” Having a successful business requires that you either show up every day at 6:30, or 7:30 — and to have a trusted replacement ready if you can’t. Many folks in the population don’t seem to understand the need to show up. This Is not to say that starting a successful business is easy, even if you show up and know what you’re doing, but reliability and hard work go a long way. Besides, many veterans have specific skills that transfer directly. See below, some business ideas with links to veteran-started companies in each area.

Aerospace and Defense
Aerospace and Defense Contracting (85) Aerospace and Defense Consulting (81) Aerospace and Defense Parts Distributors (43)		Agriculture and Forestry
Farms (101) Land Surveying and Mapping (46) Animal Control Services (30)
Arts and Entertainment
Photography Services (311) Artists and Art Related(138) Production Studios (126)		Automotive
Auto Repair Services (214) Auto Glass and Windshield Replacement (110) Auto Windshield Repair (90)
Business Services
Consulting Services (403) Franchises (281)Information Technology (222)		Commercial Contracting
Commercial General Contractors (366) Commercial Renovation, Maintenance and Repair Services (291)Commercial Cleaning Services (252)
Construction
Construction Management Services (274) Plumbing Services (109) Custom Home Builders (101)		Education and Training
Firearms Training and Instruction (243) Leadership Training Programs (86) Martial Arts Training (83)
Employment Services
Staffing (163) Recruiting Firms (99) Human Resources Consulting (73)		Energy and Utilities
Solar Energy (92) Energy Consulting Services (73) Green Energy (63)
Engineering Services
Civil Engineering (85) Architectural Engineering Services (80) Land Surveying and Mapping Services(52)		Environmental Services
Environmental Consulting Services (73) Recycling Services(37) Environmental Engineering Services (35)
Financial Services
Financial Advisors (170) Tax Preparation Services(155) Bookkeeping Services (150)		Food and Drink
Restaurants and Dining (191) Catering (137) Commercial Sales and Delivery (114)
Government
Government Consulting (95) Government Contract Consulting (75) Government Procurement Services(38)		Health, Medical and Dental
Exercise and Rehabilitation Services (199) Wellness Programs (181) Medical Equipment and Parts (143)
Insurance Services
Insurance Agencies (174) Life Insurance (160) Auto Insurance (117)		Internet Services
Web Design (420) Search Engine Optimization (SEO) (220)Web Development (172)
Legal Services
Law Firms (261) Legal Notary Services (136) Process Server Services (94)		Lodging and Travel
Travel Services (86) Vacations and Getaways (56) Vacation Cruises (49)
Manufacturing
Wood Products Manufacturing (120) Machine Shops(115) Fabrication (108)		Marketing and Sales
Marketing Services (207) Advertising Services (120) Public Relations (PR) (43)
Nonprofit and Free Help
Veterans Service Offices (VSO) (699) Veterans Services (685) Chamber of Commerce (399)		Publishing and Printing
Printing Services (209) Graphic Design Services (113)Embroidery Services (95)
Real Estate Services
Home Inspection Companies (507) Real Estate Agents (Independent) (430) Real Estate Agencies (313)		Residential Services
Residential Construction, Repair and Improvements (919)Residential Cleaning Services (405) Residential Landscape Services (335)
Security and Safety
Security Services (234) Surveillance and Alarm Systems (205) Investigations (191)		Stores and Dealers
Clothing, Shoe Stores and Accessories (357) Online Stores(336) Food and Drink Stores (291)
Technology
Information Technology Services (521) Technology Support Services (173) Telecommunications (160)		Transportation Services
Transportation Logistics Services (214) Trucking and Transportation Companies (193) Trash and Junk Haulers(180)
veteran-owned business directory copied from https://www.veteranownedbusiness.com.

One advantage of stating a business over working for others is that you are guaranteed to get hired. And you can hire your wife, etc. Also, there’s a bigger up-side than working for others. There are tax benefits too — your car and computer can be bought with pre-tax dollars assuming you use them in the business. These are not insignificant benefits — usually your tax bracket is higher than your profit margin. You generally have to work more hours per day as an entrepreneur, but if you like the work and have the skills that might not be too bad.

Perhaps you learned cybersecurity

Veterans often have credentials and skills that are rare in the country at large, and this can set you up for a good job. A high security clearance, for example– it’s necessary for many jobs in security –or skills in airplane repair, fire-arms, martial arts, shipping, recruiting, food service, communications, security, commissary… If these areas appeal to you, you can get extra training, either while still in the military or outside, and the gov’t will often pay for it. If you’re already out, think of using your VA benefits to go to school. You’ll want to fill in gaps, too, like in accounting. Good luck.

Robert Buxbaum May 14, 2024

7% of new US vehicles were EVs in 2023. Expect slow growth in 2024.

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About 7% of new US car and truck sales in 2023 were electric, 1.2 million vehicles. Of these, about 55% were Teslas. These numbers make sense based on US manufacturing and driving habits, so I don’t expect fast sales growth in 2024.

Currently home owners are the only major group of private drivers that save on fuel cost from owning an EVs. Home owners pay relatively little for electricity, about 11¢ per kWh, and they can generally charge their EVs conveniently, at home, overnight. Charging is more expensive and inconvenient for apartment dwellers. As a result, in 2023, some 95% of US EV sales went to home owners. Over 2 to 3 years they could hope to recover in gasoline savings the $7000 more that their EVs cost compared to petrol-powered vehicles, but they still have to drive a fair amount. A full charge of 80kWh EV at home will cost about $8.80 at current rates. This will power about 250 miles at a cost of 3.5¢/mile = $8.80/250.

Home, level 2 Chargers will cost about $1500 including the electrician cost.

The cost of gasoline is about 16.5¢/mile = $3.80/gal/ 23mi/gal) suggesting that you save 13¢ per mile by owning an EV. In order to recover the extra $7000 cost of the car in two years, you’d have to drive 27,000 miles per year, or 74 miles per day. To recover the difference in three years, you must drive 50 miles per day or 18,000 miles per year. This is more than most people drive.

EVs also offer reduced maintenance, but customers can balance this against the inconvenience of long charge times and spotty availability of chargers. My sense is that the fraction of Americans who benefit and drive 50-75 miles per day is about 7%. This fraction will increase as EVs get cheaper, but families that can benefit already own an EV.

The average Tesla costs today about $3000 more than the equivalent petrol car, but that still makes it relatively expensive, and it seems that the price differential was intentionally set to match sales to Tesla’s production capacity. Tesla could make EVs cheaper than petrol cars and still make a profit on each, but if they did this, they would have too much demand. Other US auto makers are mostly lose money on EVs and are unmotivated to lower prices. Based on this, my sense is that it is unlikely that sales will be much higher in 2024 than the 1.2 million sold in 2023.

The Chinese have plenty of new EVs, and they are eager to export. Their car market is currently about 50% EV, with companies like BYD selling EVs for as little as $12,000. The Chinese government subsidizes production and powers their EVs with cheap electricity by burning coal. These cars do not seem very good, compared to Tesla, but at this price they would flood the market if allowed to compete. The US government has kept them out with tariffs and with complaints about slave labor. Trump has promised a yet higher tariff, 100% on Chinese cars, if elected. The intent is to preserve US jobs and manufacturing. This is one of those situations where tariffs are good, IMHO.

Toyota Prius, the most popular hybrid.

Hybrids are a third option, cheaper than EVs, high mpg than normal engines. Though they are sometimes touted as a transition to EVs, to me they’ seem to suit a completely different demographic: those who don’t own their own home and drive a lot. Toyota makes the most popular hybrids in the US. They cost about $4000 more than the equivalent petrol car, $30,000 for a Prius vs $26,000 for a Corolla. When using a Prius in the city, you’ll get about 50 mpg, spending 7.5¢ per mile ($3.80/gal / 50 mpg = 7.5¢). This implies a gas savings of about 9¢ per mile vs an ordinary Corolla. Based on this, you have to drive about 27,000 miles per year in the city to recover the cost difference in two years. That’s a lot, and your performance is typically worse with a hybrid: you have a heavier car with a small engine. Maintenance cost is also higher with a hybrid than with an EV: you still need oil changes, fluid changes, belts, etc. and the mpg advantage vanishes on the highway. A hard driving home owner is better off with an EV, IMHO, an apartment dweller with a hybrid. Hybrids also should make sense for taxis and local-haul trucks. I can imagine hybrid sales rising in 2024, perhaps as high as 15% of vehicle sales. What we’re all waiting for is more near-shore manufacturing (or mandates), and this is not likely in 2024.

Robert Buxbaum April 28, 2024

Why did the UK reject Trump’s trade deals?

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When the UK left the EU, they gained some economic freedom, but lost easy access to their largest trade partner. They avoided having to follow the weird green policies of the EU, and no longer had to take low cost workers from Poland, Bulgaria, Tec, but having lost easy access to European trade, the assumption was that they would want a trade deal soon, with someone, and the likely someone was the USA.

At first things went pretty well. there was the predicted crash didn’t come, showing that the top economists were talking out their hats, or trying to scare people to stay in the EU. And then Trump proposed the first of four attempts at a trade deal, and things got ugly. All four attempts were rejected in a most-forceful and insulting way.

When Trumps first forays at a trade deal were rejected, he attempt a visit in the summer of 2017. The British Parliament forbidding the visit, accepting it only by a slim majority with the PM, May making no strong case. The mayor of London protested with a blimp of Trump as a big baby, and the Queen was not sure she had time for tea (she had time for Obama). Trump cancelled the visit, and May made deals with Norway, Switzerland, Israel, Palestine, and Iceland. Why these but not the US?

Over the next two years Trump made trade deals with Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Korea, trying The UK again in July, 2019. This time, Theresa May was more welcoming — she was facing an election — but the blimp was brought out again, and allowed to follow Trump around England, along with a statue of Trump on the toilet, tweeting, and making fart sounds while saying “witch hunt,” “no collusion*”, and other comic comments. All rather insulting, and deal with the UK was signed.

I suspect Trump’s offers to the UK were similar to those with Japan, and Japan seemed very happy with the deal (Biden offered them an exit from Trump’s, and Abe stayed — and proposed Trump for the Nobel Prize. So why the British antagonism? Even if they had to say no, why didn’t they arrange a location or treatment to say no politely. India said no to Trump’s trade deal, politely, in 2020, and to the UK too.

My theory is that Theresa May was taken by the anti-Trump propaganda of Europe and particularly of the German press (see magazine covers of the time). Germany was the leader of Europe (this status has diminished), and its press presented Trump as a racist murderer. May kept trying to get back into the EU, and may have thought that ill-treating Trump would help. Boris Johnson followed May, and was pro-Trump, but his cabinet was not. They acted as if they could recreate the British empire of Queen Victoria — a silly thought. They tried for free trade deals with India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, members of the old empire, but they never quite managed anything. COVID made things worse. The UK economy stalled, Johnson was removed, and the current PM, Rishi Sunak, seems to have got nowhere with Biden. Trump re-offered his trade deal during the visit, but he was out of office; Both Biden and Sunak ignored it.

The UK needs free trade with some substantial countries. They are a hub for manufacturing, information, and banking, currently without any spokes. India likely turned them down because the UK no longer has the power to protect them from enemies, China, Iran, Russia.., nor to protect their trade. Aside from rejoining the EU (good luck there), US is the obvious partner. If personality were the problem, there would have been a deal between Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden.

Since leaving the EU, the UK is doing slightly better than Germany, but that’s not saying much. British exports were helped by the cut off of trade with Russia, but that might not last, and London is having trouble trying to remain a financial center, fighting difficult travel and work rules, and the decline of the pound. Maybe it’s Biden’s fault that there is no deal. It’s hard to tell. Last week, the British Foreign secretary, David Cameron, came to visit Trump at Mar a Lago for a good feelings chat and to start on a trade deal should Trump become president. It’s not clear that Trump will become president, but there are at least hopes for a deal, ideally signed at a distance from the baby balloon.

Robert Buxbaum, April 18, 2024 *”Russian collusion” was a big deal at the time. A dossier was supposed show that Trump was a Russian agent. It turned out the dossier was created by Democrats working with the FBI.

BYD is not first world competition for Tesla

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In Q4 2023, BYD became the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, passing Tesla in world wide sales. They mostly sell in China, and claim to make a profit while selling cars for about half the price of a Tesla. They also make robots, trucks, busses, smart phones, and batteries — including blade batteries that Tesla uses for a variant in its Berlin facility. They are a darling of the wall-street experts, in part because Warren Buffett is an investor. BYD cars look to be about as nice as Tesla’s at least from the outside and sell (In China) for a fraction of the price. The experts are convinced enough to write glowing articles, but I suspect that the experts have not invested, nor bought BYD products. — What do I know?

BYD truck. It looks good on the outside. Is it competition?

Part of the BYD charm is that it is considered socially progressive, while Tesla is seen as run by a dictatorial villain. A Delaware judge who concluded that Musk did non deserve the majority of his salary, and confiscated it. There are no such claims against BYD. BYD also has far more models than Tesla, 41 by my count, compared to Tesla’s 4. The experts seem to believe that all BYD has to do is bring their low-cost cars west, and they will own the market. My sense is that, if that was all they needed, they’d have done it already. I strongly suspect the low cost cars that are the majority of BYD’s sales are low quality versions — too low to sell in the US. Here are some numbers.

Total number of vehicles made 2023:
Tesla: ~1,800,000
BYD: ~3,020,000 (1,570,000 BEV)

Employees 2023: Vehicles / Employee 2023:
Tesla: ~140,000 Tesla: 12.86
BYD: ~631,500 BYD: 5.03

Gross Revenue 2023: Gross revenue per vehicle:
Tesla: ~$96.8B Tesla: $53,900
BYD: ~ $85B BYD: $28,100

Net Profit 2023: Profit per employee: Profit per vehicle:
Tesla: ~$9.5B (9.7%). Tesla: $67,857. Tesla: $5,280.
BYD: ~$3.5B (4.1%). BYD: $5,542. BYD: $1,160

Market share based on sales in western countries 2023:
Tesla: US: 4%, EU: 2.6%
BYD: US: 0%, EU: 0.1%

The most telling comparison, in my opinion, is BYD’s tiny market share in western countries. Their cars sell for 1/2 what Tesla’s sell for. If their low-cost cars were as good as Tesla’s, there is no way their market penetration would be so low. My sense is that the average BYD vehicle is lacking in something. Maybe they’re underpowered, or poorly constructed, unsafe, or unreliable: suitable only for China, India, or other poor markets. I suspect that the cars BYD sells in Europe are made on a separate line. Even so, customers say that BYD cars feel “cheap.” BYD charges more for these cars in Europe than Tesla charges for its top sellers, suggesting that these vehicles are of a different, better design. Even so, the low numbers suggest that BYD does not turn a profit on the sales. I suspect they do it for PR.

Both cars look sporty. Why doesn’t the BYD sell?

Another observation is that BYD produces 5.03 vehicles per worker, per year. That’s half as many as Tesla workers produce per worker-year. It’s also about half of Ford’s Rouge plant (Detroit) worker production in the 1930s. That Ford plant was vertically integrated starting with raw materials and outputting finished cars. This low output per worker suggests that BYD is built on low wage, low skill production, or equally damning, that none of these models are really mass-produced.

A first world market favors a polished product that your mechanic is somewhat familiar with. That favors Tesla as it has significant market penetration, and a network of mechanics. Also, Tesla has built up a network of fast charge stations and reliable service providers. BYD has no particular charging infrastructure and virtually no service network. Charging price and experience is a key decider among first world customers. No American will tolerate slow charging in the snow at a high price — especially if they must travel to a charger without being sure the charger will be working when they get there. Tesla has figured out how to make charging less painful, and that’s worth a lot.

Tesla might fail, but if so I don’t think it will be because of BYD success. Months ago the experts assured us that cybertruck would be deadly a failure. I disagree, but it might be. I don’t think BYDs will be better. Government subsidies have ended in many states and countries (Germany, California…) putting a dent in Tesla sales, and they are having manufacturing difficulties, particularly with batteries. These seem fix-able, but might not be. I see relatively little first world competition in the US EV market from legacy auto companies. Maybe they know to avoid EVs. They currently make decent products, IC and EV, but lose money on every EV. They treat EVs as a passing fad. If they are right, Tesla and BYD will fail. If they are wrong, Tesla will do fine, and they may not be able to make up their lost place in the market. As for BYD, given their low production numbers, they will need some 3 million new workers and many new factories. I don’t think they can find them, nor raise the money for the factories.

Most of the data here was taken from @NicklasNilsso14. All of the opinions are mine.

Robert Buxbaum February 18, 2024.

Half of Americans want to be kept from voting Trump

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Both Trump and Biden are unpopular. Academics and the press favor Biden, and find it inconceivable that anyone would like Trump but polls show him leading in the country as a whole, and leading in key swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, etc. Some 15.1% more Americans have an unfavorable view of Biden than a favorable view.

Biden’s problems include his age, the border crisis, and the economy. People say they find that essentials are expensive, while luxuries are cheap, and that Biden seems out of touch, perhaps that he favors the rich (the Democratic Party is increasingly the party of billionaires). Then there are religious objections, including to diversity, or gender-affirming child surgery, or abortion till birth and doctor-assisted suicide.

Trump leads in the polls, pointing to misuse of the Justice Department including Republican civil servants fired over phony mask mandates, the many illegal immigrants, the EV agenda, even Trump’s impeachment hearings that began as soon as he was elected, based on a made up “Russian collision” dossier. There’s a claim from Twitter, that the Biden’s DOJ demanded Twitter favor Biden, and then demanded that Trump be “deplatformed”, completely silenced before the election.

The Democrats fire back that Trump is ineligible to be president as he is a seditionist — citing an anti-confederate clause of the 14th amendment. They have so far, removed him from the ballot in two battleground states, Colorado and Maine, and are looking at removing him from the ballot in several others. These moves are surprisingly popular, supported by 49% of voters, despite the fact that Trump leads in the polls.

In New York, the district attorney ran on the platform that he would “get Trump,” that is put him in prison for something, and thus stop his presidential bid. NY has already pulled Trump’s business license and has indicted Trump on 48 felony counts based on the assertion that he paid a prostitute and called it legal fees on his internal books. They also claim he over-valued his buildings. No one has ever been charged or convicted on such crimes before this, but it seems certain he will be found guilty in NY. Either way, it’s is a big drain on Trump’s time and money, and the case allows the judge to command Trump not speak. Meanwhile, the ex-prosecutor has an open mike to claim he heads a crime family, now that he’s handed the case over to another DA. The judge has threatened to jail Trump for saying the charges are bogus and the treatment unfair.

In Colorado, the decision the case is stronger – sedition. They decision to remove Trump’s name from the ballot was made by a 5 to 4 vote in the Democrat-majority Supreme Court. In Maine the Secretary of State removed his name, acting alone. The claim is that what happened January 7 was not a protest, but an insurrection, and that Trump is guilty for it, along with many others who didn’t participate. Further they maintain that it is a false narrative that it was the FBI who entered the capital, fanning the flames as a sting operation against Trump. Similarly false is any claim that the Democrats skewed the election by stuffing the ballot box or overruling laws that required voter ID. That Trump says otherwise shows that Trump is a danger to democracy, they say. They find extremely offense that he calls them the “Department of Injustice.”

According to a January 16, 2024 Ispos, ABC poll, here nearly every voter who favors Biden favors removing Trim from the ballot. Most do not require that Trump be convicted. Not that it’s unlikely that Trump will be convicted of something. In NY it’s likely to be for paying a prostitute and for saying his buildings are worth more than the DA thinks they are. In Georgia, the DA took the unusual step of indicting Trump’s lawyers and his witnesses too. She thus prevents anyone who could testify for Trump from doing so. The Georgia DA seems to have done some other illegal things, but it seems certain that she’ll win her case, even if she goes to jail in the process. Several other battle-ground states’ DAs have said thay will remove Trump from the ballot, or try. Among these are Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia — states where Trump is the leading candidate.

Behi d the effort to remove Trump, guiltier not, is a generally low opinion of the legal system. Polls show that 53% of America believes that judges decide based on their politics, not on law. If Trump is found guilty, they believe it’s politics. If he’s found innocent, tit’s also politics, according to the majority of Americans. Given that folks are convinced the judges are crooked, they want to make sure that their crooked judges are the ones to stay in power, and those with other views are kept from office. It’s a tribal view of justice, not uncommon in 3rd world countries. Man for all seasons is a classic movie/ play about it.

In Russia and China the same tribal view of justice prevails, and the same story is playing out. Putin is running for president in 2024, and has take the precaution to jail his opposition as seditionist. Chinese chairman Xi has not only jailed his opposition, but also most major business leaders. The people in these countries don’t seem to mind, and seem genuinely supportive. The press there, as here, can’t understand why anyone would support anyone but the boss, and have warned against false news in an eerily unified voice.

Efforts are underway to keep Trump off the ballot in these states where he is winning, plus Wisconsin and Minnesota, states where he’s tied or losing by a small margin. A majority people don’t want him or Biden, so removal is popular.

Robert Buxbaum, Jan 31, 2024. To me, the removal of Trump from the ballot is related to the desire for term limits, and for our support, in Ukraine for the elimination of upcoming elections. Folks like democracy, in theory, but need to make sure the wrong person doesn’t win. It’s a paradox.

Deadly screw sizes, avoid odd numbers and UNF.

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The glory of American screws and bolts is their low cost ubiquity, especially in our coarse thread (UNC = United National Coarse) sizes. Between 1/4 inch and 5/8″, they are sized in 1/16″ steps, and after that in 1/8″ steps. Below 3/16″, they are sized by wire gauges, and generally they have unique pitch sizes. All US screws and bolts are measured by their diameter and threads per inch. Thus, the 3/8-16 (UNC) has an outer diameter (major diameter) of 3/8″ with 16 threads per inch (tpi). 16 tpi is an ideal thread number for overall hold strength. No other bolt has 16 threads per inch so it is impossible to use the wrong bolt in a hole tapped for 3/8-16. The same is true for basically every course thread with a very few exceptions, mainly found between 3/16″ and 1/4″ where the wire gauges transition to fractional sizes. Because of this, if you stick to UTC you are unlikely to screw up, as it were. You are also less-likely to cross-thread.

I own one of these. It’s a tread pitch gauge.

US fine threads come in a variety of standards, most notably UNF = United National Fine. No version of fine thread is as strong as coarse because while there are more threads per inch, each root is considerably weaker. The advantage of fine treads is for use with very thin material, or where vibration is a serious concern. The problem is that screwups are far more likely and this diminishes the strength even further. Consider the 7/16″ – 24 (UNF). This bolt will fit into a nut or flange tapped for 1/2″- 24. The fit will be a little loose, but you might not notice. You will be able to wrench it down so everything looks solid, but only the ends of the threads are holding. This is a accident waiting to happen. To prevent such mistakes you can try to never allow a 7/6″-24 bolt into your shop, but this is uncomfortably difficult. If you ever let a 7/6″-24 bolt in, some day someone will grab it and use it, in all likelihood with a 1/2″ -24 nut or flange, since these are super-common. Under stress, the connection will fail in the worst possible moment.

Other UNF bolts and nuts present the same screwup risk. For example, between the 3/8″-24 and 5/16″-24 (UNF), or the #10-32 (UNF) and also with the 3/16″- 32, and the latter with the #8-32 (UNC). There is also a French metric with 0.9mm — this turns out to be identical to -32 pitch. The problem appears with any bolt pair where with identical pitch and the major diameter of the smaller bolt has a larger outer diameter (major diameter) than the inner diameter (minor diameter) of the larger bolt. If these are matched, the bolts will seem to hold when tightened, but they will fail in use. You well sometimes have to use these sizes because they match with some purchased flange. If you have to use them, be careful to use the largest bolt diameter that will fit into the threaded hole.

Where I have the option, my preference is to stick to UNC as much as possible, even where vibration is an issue. In vibration situations, I prefer to add a lock nut or sometimes, an anti-vibration glue, locktite, available in different release temperatures. Locktite is also helpful to prevent gas leaks. In our hydrogen purifiers, I use lock washers on the ground connection from the power cord, for example.

I try to avoid metric, by the way. They less readily available in the US, and more expensive. The other problem with metric is that there are two varieties (Standard and French — God love the French engineering) and there are so many sizes and pitches that screwups are common. Metric bolts come in every mm diameter, and often fractional mm too. There is a 2mm, a 2.3mm, a 2.5mm, and a 2.6mm, often with overlapping pitches. The pitch of metric screws and bolts is measured by their spacing, by the way, so a 1mm metric pitch means there is 1mm between threads, the the equivalent of a 24.5 pitch in the US, and a 0.9mm pitch = US-32. Thread confusion possibilities are endless. A M6x1 (6mm OD x 1mm pitch) is easily confused with a M5x1 or a M7x1, and the latter with the M7.5×1. A M8x1.25 is easily confused with a M9x1.25, and a M14x2 with an M16x2. And then there is confusion with US bolts: a 2.5mm metric pitch is nearly identical to a US 10tpi pitch. I can not rid myself of US threads, so I avoid metric where I can. As above, problems arise if you use a smaller diameter bolt in a larger diameter nut.

For those who have to use metric, I suggest you always use the largest bolt that will fit (assuming you can find it). I try to avoid bringing odd-size bolts into their shop, that is, stick to M6, M8, M10. It’s not always possible, but it’s a suggestion. I get equipment with odd-size metric bolts too. My preference is to stick to UNC and to avoid odd numbers.

Robert Buxbaum, January 23, 2024. Note: I’ve only really discussed bolt sizes between about #4 and 1″, and I didn’t consider UNRC or UNJF or other, odd options. You can figure these issues out yourself from the above, I think.