Category Archives: Business

Pneumonia vaccine in the age of COVID

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A few days ago, I asked for and received the PCV-13 pneumonia vaccine, and a few days earlier, the flu shot. These vaccines are free if you are over 65, but you have to ask for them. PCV-13 is the milder of the pneumonia vaccines, providing moderate resistance to 12 common pneumonia strains, plus a strain of diphtheria. There is a stronger shot, with more side-effects. The main reason I got these vaccines was to cut my risk from COVID-19.

Some 230,00 people have died from COVID-19. Almost all none of them were under 20, and hardly any died from the virus itself. As with the common flu, they died from side infections and pneumonia. Though the vaccine I took is not 100% effective against event these 13 pneumonias, it is fairly effective, especially in the absence of co-morbidities, and has few side effects beyond stiffness in my arm. I felt it was a worthwhile protection, and further reading suggests it was more worthwhile than I’d thought at first.

It is far from clear there will be a working vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COV-19. We’ve been trying for 40 years to make a vaccine against AIDS, without success. We have also failed to create a working vaccine for SARS, MERS, or the common cold. Why should SARS-CoV-2 be different? We do have a flu vaccine, and I took it, but it isn’t very effective, viruses mutate. Despite claims that we would have a vaccine for COVID-19 by early next year, I came to imagine it would not be a particularly good vaccine, and it might have side effects. On the other hand, there is a fair amount of evidence that the pneumonia vaccine works and does a lot more good than one might expected against COVID-19.

A colleague of mine from Michigan State, Robert Root Bernstein, analyzed the effectiveness of several vaccines in the fight against COVID-19 by comparing the impact of COVID-19 on two dozen countries as a function of all the major inoculations. He found a strong correlation only with pneumonia vaccine: “Nations such as Spain, Italy, Belgium, Brazil, Peru and Chile that have the highest COVID-19 rates per million have the poorest pneumococcal vaccination rates among both infants and adults. Nations with the lowest rates of COVID-19 – Japan, Korea, Denmark, Australia and New Zealand – have the highest rates of pneumococcal vaccination among both infants and adults.” Root-Bernstein also looked at the effectiveness of adult inoculation and child inoculation. Both were effective, at about the same rate. This suggests that the the plots below are not statistical flukes. Here is a link to the scientific article, and here is a link to the more popular version.

An analysis of countries in terms of COVID rates and deaths versus pneumonia vaccination rates in children and adults. The US has a high child vaccination rate, but a low adult vaccination rate. Japan, Korea, etc. are much better. Italy, Belgium, Spain, Brazil, and Peru are worse. Similar correlations were found with child and adult inoculation, suggesting that these correlations are not flukes of statistics.

I decided to check up on Root-Bernstein’s finding by checking the state-by state differences in pneumonia vaccination rates — information available here — and found that the two US states that were hardest hit by COVID, NY and NJ, have among the lowest rates of inoculation. Of course there are other reasons at play. These states are uncommonly densely populated, and the governments of both made the unfortunate choice of sending infected patients to live in old age homes. At least half of the deaths were in these homes.

Pneumonia vaccination may also explain why the virus barely affected those under 20. Pneumonia vaccines was available only in 2000 or so. Many states then began to vaccinate about then and required it to attend school. The time of immunization could explain why those younger than 20 in the US do so well compared to older individuals, and compared to some other countries where inoculation was later. I note that China has near universal inoculation for pneumonia, and was very mildly hit.

I also took the flu shot, and had taken the MMR (measles) vaccine last year. The side effects, though bad, are less bad than the benefits, I thought, but there was another reason, and that’s mimicry. It is not uncommon that exposure to one virus or vaccine will excite the immune system to similar viruses, so-called B cells and T-cell immunity. A recent study from the Mayo Clinic, read it here, shows that other inoculations help you fight COVID-19. By simple logic, I had expected that the flu vaccine would help me this way. The following study (from Root-Bernstein again) shows little COVID benefit from flu vaccine, but evidence that MMR helps (R-squared of 0.118). Let men suggest it’s worth a shot, as it were. Similar to this, I saw just today, published September 24, 2020 in the journal, Vaccines, that the disease most molecularly similar to SARS-CoV-2 is pneumonia. If so, mimicry provides yet another reason for pneumonia vaccination, and yet another explanation for the high correlations shown above.

As a final comparison, I note that Sweden has a very high pneumonia inoculation rate, but seems to have a low mask use rate. Despite this, Sweden has done somewhat better than the US against COVID-19. Chile has a low inoculation rates, and though they strongly enforced masks and social distance, it was harder hit than we were. The correlation isn’t 100%, and masks clearly do some good, but it seems inoculation may be more effective than masks.

Robert Buxbaum, November 7, 2020.

Hand washing and masks help, just not that much.

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There are two main routes for catching flu. One is via your hands and your eyes and nose. Your hands pick up germs from the surfaces you touch, and when you touch your eyes or nose passages, the germs infect you. This was thought to be the main route for infection, and I still think it is. I’d been pushing iodine hand sanitizer for some time, the stuff used in hospitals, saying that that the alcohol hand sanitizer doesn’t work well, that it evaporates.

The other route, the one touted by the press these days is via direct cough droplets, breathing them in or getting them in your eyes. Masks and face shields are the preferred protection from this route, and the claim is that masks will stop 63% of the spread. The 63% number has an interesting history, it comes from this test with infected hamsters. Hamsters are 63% less likely to infect other hamsters when they wear a mask. Of course, the comparison has some weaknesses: hamsters don’t put their fingers in their noses, nor do they rub their eyes with their hands, and hamsters can be forced to keep the mask barrier all the time — read the study to see how.

A more realistic study, or more relevant to people, in my opinion showed a far lower effect for masks, about 20%. During the HiNi flu pandemic of 2009 a group of 1437 college students at a single university were divided into three randomized groups, see the original report here. Students at a few chosen residence halls were instructed to wash their hands regularly, use sanitizer, and wear masks. Students at other halls were either told to wear masks only, or told to go on as they pleased. This was the largest group, the control. They included students of the the largest residence hall on campus. The main results appear as the graph below, Figure 1 of the report. It shows a difference of 6% or 20%, depending on how you look at things, with the mask plus hand-health group, MPHH, doing the best.

After 6 weeks of monitoring, approximately 36% of the control group had gotten the flu or some collection of flu symptoms. The remaining 64% of the residents remained symptom free. This is he darkest line above.

Of the FM Only group, the medium line above, those instructed to wear face masks only. 30% of this group showed flu symptoms, with 70% remaining symptom free. Clearly masks do help with humans, but far less than what you’d expect from the news reports.

Sweden kept the primary schools open and allows people to wear masks and social distance at they see fit. The death toll to August 1 is identical to Michigan, or slightly bette Sweden’s top virologist recommends that the US follow suit. Open up and trust people.

The group that did best was FMHH, the group who both wore facemarks and used hand health, regular hand washing plus hand sanitizer. This group reported an average of 3.5 hours per day of mask use above the control group average. This is about as good or better than I see in Michigan. Adding the hand health provided an additional 1% improvement, or a 3% improvement, depending on how you look at these things. The press claims hand health is wasted effort, but I’m not so sure. I argue that the effect was significant, and that the hand sanitizer was bad. I argue that iodine hand wash would have done better at far less social cost.

I also note that doing nothing was not that much worse than mask use. This matches with the observation of COVID-19 in Sweden. With no enforced social distancing, Sweden did about the same as Michigan — slightly better, despite Michigan closing the schools and restaurants, and imposing some of the toughest requirements for social distancing and mask use.

Other things that affect how likely you are to get flu symptoms. I find these rustles more interesting than the main face-mask result.

There were other observations from the university study that i found isignificant. There are racial differences and social differences. The authors didn’t highlight these, but they are at least as large as the effect of mask use. Asians got the flu only 70% as often as others, while black students got it 8% more often. This matches what has been seen in the US with COVID-19. Also interesting, those with a recent flu shot got flu more often; those with physical activity 13% more often. Smokers got the flu less than non-smokers and women got it 22% more often than men. The last two are the reverse with COVID-19. I could speculate on the reasons, but clearly there is a lot going on.

Why did Asians do better than others? Perhaps Asians have had prior exposure to some similar virus, and are thus slightly immune, or perhaps they used the masks more, being more socially acceptable. Why were smokers protected? It’s likely that smoke kills germs; was that the cause. These are speculations, and as for the rest I don’t know.

I am not that bothered that the students probably didn’t wear their masks 100% of the time. Better would be better, but even with mask use 100% of the time, there are other known routes that are almost impossible to remove: clothing, food, touching your face. I still think there is a big advantage to iodine hand wash, and I suspect we would be better off opening up a bit too.

Robert Buxbaum August 7, 2020.

Hamilton and his slave-trading father in law.

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Philip Schuyler as a Major General in the Revolution. His statue was removed.

What most folks know about Alexander Hamilton’s father in law, Philip Schuyler, is that he was “loaded”, that he had three daughters, and that he quickly took to young Alexander. But an important fact varnished over is that Schuyler made his money in the slave trade, a trade that Hamilton was likely in when he met the young Schuyler daughters. Schuyler was also a slave owner, owning 13 slaves, by his record, and perhaps another 17 indentured servants working at two mansions. So far, only the Philip Schyler statue has been taken down. It seems possible that many monuments to Hamilton may follow.

Statue of Alexander Hamilton, proudly stands in front of Columbia University. The ten dollar founding father.

The play “Hamilton” proclaims Hamilton’s genius and exceptional work ethic, mentioning that, at the young age of 14 (more likely 16) he was left in charge of a trading company. This was for 5 months in 1771, while the owner was over seas doing business. Hamilton knew the business well; he’d been hired as a clerk at 11 at Beekman and Cruger, a similar import-export trading firm. What items did these firms trade — cotton, sugar, rum, and most profitable slaves. This likely was the business that kept the owner overseas for 5 months while Alexander ran the shop. There are at least two notifications of slave ships entering the harbor with human good for sale. Among Hamilton’s likely jobs would have been fattening and oiling the goods for sale. Hamilton himself seems to have owned a slave-boy named Ajax who he inherited (briefly) from his mother, Rachel. His mother is listed on the tax records as white. She owned five saves at one time, suggesting she was not entirely impoverished. Hamilton’s father, though a failed businessman, was a Scottish Laird (a Lord). As for the court-mandated transfer of Ajax from Alexander, it was to his half-brother James because James was “Legitimate.”

I base Hamilton’s age on the Nevis-St Kitts record of his birth, January 11, 1755.”[1] The play takes as a fact Hamilton’s claim to have been born two years later, January 11, 1757. I trust the written records here, and imagine Hamilton wanted to present himself as a young genius, rather than as a bright, but older fellow. In 1772, at at age 17, Hamilton wrote a “fire and brimstone” description of a deadly hurricane, describing it as “divine rebuke to human vanity and pomposity.”[2] Between this, and his skill at trading, the community leaders collected money to send him to New York, but unlike the play’s description, it was not only for further education. The deal was that he continue trading for the firm,[3] and this is likely how he met his future father in law. “[4] 

Hercules Mulligan, a revolutionary tailor: He was a spy. According to the CIA, much of the work was through his black slave, Cato.

In New York, Hamilton met Schuyler and his daughters. It seems likely that he met the father first, likely as possible customer for the slave trade from the Caribbean, or perhaps as a customer for rum and sugar. A 1772 letter in Hamilton’s handwriting [4] asks for the purchase of “two or three poor boys” for plantation work, “bound in the most reasonable manner you can.” As in the play, Hamilton was friends with John Laurens, an abolitionist, and among his first lodgings was with Hercules Mulligan, a tailor’s apprentice. Hercules is presented as black in the play, but he was quite white (see picture) with a black slave, Cato. Cato ran most of the messages. According to the play, “I’m joining the rebellion cuz I know it’s my chance
To socially advance, Instead of sewin’ some pants, I’m taking my shot. No, Hercules was socially advanced ,married into the British Admiralty, even. He was a true believer in freedom and a slave-holder. His older brother, Hugh Mulligan, was one of the traders that Hamilton was supposed to work with.[5] As for Laurens and his anti-slavery organization, most of those in the organization owned slaves, and though they opposed slavery, they could never decide on when or how to end it. There is no evidence that Cato was ever set free.

The appointment to Washingtons staff was not likely a coincidence. The elder Schuyler was one of the four top generals appointed in 1775 to serve directly under Washington. Phillip oversaw, at a distance, the disastrous attack on Quebec and the victory at Saratoga– both, Burr served admirably. Phillip’s main role was as a quartermaster/supplier, and this is not a small role. Phillip Schuyler had been a quarter-master in the French and Indian war. It’s likely that it was Schuyler who got Hamilton his appointment to Washington’s staff.

Once on Washington’s staff, Hamilton served admirably. Originally serving as a secretary, Hamilton wrote many of Washington’s dispatches. Then, according to tradition, as a cannon commander, he took particular pleasure in the attack on Princeton University. He then served well as secretary of the Treasury, and as head of the Bank of The United States, the only major US bank until Burr opened the Bank of the Manhattan company. Despite his aversion to slavery, Hamilton also continued to deal in slaves. A 1796 cash book entry records Hamilton’s payment of $250 to his father-in-law for “2 Negro servants purchased by him for me.” This is only 3 years before 1799, when New York began to end slavery in the state with the Act for the Gradual Abolition of Slavery. Children of slaves born after July 4, 1799, were to be legally free, but required indentured servitude: to age 28 for males and 25 for females. Those born before July 4, 1799 became free in 1817. There is no evidence that Hamilton was a leader in any of this, but Burr, another slave-owning abolitionist, was a leader in the NY legislature at the time.

I’m with Burr.He was flawed, a slave-owning abolitionist, but vehimently against the Alien and Sedition Acts, a Hamiltonian horror.

It seems that Robert Morris introduced Hamilton to the importance of tariffs, and to the idea of using debt service as a backing to currency. It’s brilliant idea, but Hamilton understood it and took to it. Hamilton also understood the need for a coast guard to enforce the tariffs. As for Hamilton’s character, or Burr’s. Both, in my understanding, were imperfect people who did great deeds. I’ve already written that Hamilton was likely setting up Burr for murder, perhaps because of Burr’s vehement opposition to the Alien and Sedition Acts — That’s why Hamilton wore his glasses and fiddled with the gun so much. Burr was also gaining power through his Manhattan corporation and Tammany organization. both of which got his support among the immigrants.

My intent here is not to knock the image of Hamilton, Schuyler, Laurens and Mulligan, nor to raise that of Burr, but to correct some current fictions in the play “Hamilton”, and to fight a disease of our age, the cancel culture. The cancel culture elevates their heroes (Hamilton, Mulligan) to god-status. They will lie to cover the flaws of their heroes, and will lie also to claim a drop of black blood in them; neither Hamilton nor Mulligan were black and both owned slaves, as did Burr. The other side of the cancel culture is to cancel — to eliminate the validity — of the reactionaries, the non-revolutionary. In the play, these include Samuel Seebury and Aaron Burr. Great building is almost always the work of contradictory people. They need some talent, and a willingness to act, and because building requires a group, they have to work in a group, tolerating flaws of the others in the group. It is just these flawed, contradictory builders that are being cancelled, and I don’t think that’s right or healthy.

Robert Buxbaum, August 4, 2020.

Sweden v Michigan: different approaches, same outcome.

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Sweden has scientists; Michigan has scientists. Sweden’s scientists said to trust people to social distance and let the COVID-19 disease run its course. It was a highly controversial take, but Sweden didn’t close the schools, didn’t enforce masks, and let people social distance as they would. Michigan’s scientists said to wear masks and close everything, and the governor enforced just that. She closed the schools, the restaurants, the golf courses, and even the parks for a while. In Michigan you can not attend a baseball game, and you can be fined for not wearing a mask in public. The net result: Michigan and Sweden had almost the same death totals and rates, as the graphs below show. As of July 28, 2020: Sweden had 5,702 dead of COVID-19, Michigan had 6,402. That’s 13 more dead for a population that’s 20% smaller.

Sweden’s deaths pre day. There are 5,702 COVID dead since the start, out of a population of 10.63 million. There are 79,494 confirmed COVID cases, but likely a lot more infected.

Sweden and Michigan are equally industrial, with populations in a few dense cities and a rural back-country. Both banned large-scale use of hydroxy-chloroquine. Given the large difference in social distance laws, you’d expect a vastly different death rate, with Michigan’s, presumably lower, but there is hardly any difference at all, and it’s worthwhile to consider what we might learn from this.

Michigan’s deaths pre day. There are 6,426 COVID dead since the start, out of a population of 9.99 million. There are 88,025 confirmed COVID cases, but likely a lot more infected.

What I learn from this is not that social distance is unimportant, and not that hand washing and masks don’t work, but rather it seems to me that people are more likely to social distance if they themselves are in control of the rules. This is something I also notice comparing freezer economies to communist or controlled ones: people work harder when they have more of a say in what they do. Some call this self -exploitation, but it seems to be a universal lesson.

Both Sweden and the US began the epidemic with some moderate testing of a drug called hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)and both mostly stopped in April when the drug became a political football. President Trump recommended it based on studies in France and China, but the response was many publications showing the didn’t work and was even deadly. Virtually ever western country cut back use of the drug. Brazil’s scientists objected — see here where they claim that those studies were crooked. It seems that countries that continued to use the drug had fewer COVID deaths, see graph, but it’s hard to say. The Brazilians claim that the anti HCQ studies were politically motivated, but doctors in both Sweden and the US largely stopped prescribing the drug. This seems to have been a mistake.

US hospitals stopped using HCQ in early April almost as soon as Trump recommended it. Sweden did the same.

In July, Henry Ford hospitals published this large-scale study showing a strong benefit: for HCQ: out of 2,541 patients in six hospitals, the death rate for those treated with HCQ was 13%. For those not treated with HCQ, the death rate was more than double: 26.4%. It’s not clear that this is cause and effect. It’s suggestive, but there is room for unconscious bias in who got the drug. Similarly, last week, a Yale researcher this week used epidemiological evidence to say HCQ works. This might be proof, or not. Since epidemiology is not double-blind, there is more than common room for confounding variables. By and large the newspaper experts are unconvinced by epidemiology and say there is no real evidence of HCQ benefit. In Michigan and Sweden the politicians strongly recommend continuing their approaches, by and large avoiding HCQ. In Brazil, India and much of the mideast, HCQ is popular. The countries that use HCQ claim it works. The countries that don’t claim it does not. The countries with strict lock-down say that science shows this is what’s working. The countries without, claim they are right to go without. All claim SCIENCE to support their behaviors, and likely that’s faulty logic.

Hydroxychloroquine and COVID-19 fatality rates in different countries as of early June 2020. This isn’t enough to prove HCQ effectiveness, but it’s promising, and suggests that increased use is warranted, at least among those without heart problems.

Given my choice, I’d like to see more use of HCQ. I’m not sure it works, but I’m ,sure there’s enough evidence to put it into the top tier of testing. I’d also prefer the Sweden method, of nor enforced lockdown, or a very moderate lockdown, but I live I’m Michigan where the governor claims she knows science, and I’m willing to live within the governor’s lockdown.There is good, scientific evidence that, if you don’t you get fined or go to jail.

Robert Buxbaum, July 29, 2020. As I side issue, I think iodine hand wash is a good thing. I may be wrong, but here’s my case.

Package postage from China: 70¢ for 2 oz.

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The minimum US postage rate to send a 1 oz to 8 oz package across the street is $8.30. This is the price for any size package going in “zone 1”. That is, to a nearby, instate address. It costs more to send a package to nearby states or across the country, zones 2,3,4,5,6,7, 8 You don’t get shipping updates or delivery confirmation unless you pay more. By comparison the US post office charges no more than $1.50 to Chinese companies to deliver packages of up to 4.4 lbs (2 kg) and they get shipping and delivery confirmation thrown in free. The high US rates are, in part, because the post office is losing money to subsidize postage from China.

On the internet folks are amazed at how cheap things are shipped from China (I copied this post from this Forbes article)

US producers can not compete on the sale of small items, in part, because we subsidize the shipping costs. Go to Amazon or e-Bay and you can buy from China packaged items shipped by air for a total price of $1 or so. That includes the price of the item, the shipping cost, and some profit for Amazon or eBay. A US supplier could not sell this cheap even if it were a box of air. The low shipping costs result from a poorly negotiated postage deal of 2011 between us (Obama’s negotiator) and the Chinese. Until 2021, we are committed to deliver a package of 50g or less, (2 oz) for 5 Chinese Yuan, or 70¢ at the current exchange rate of 14¢/NCY. Additional ounces are billed at 35¢ up to 4.4 lbs; use the following table of prices and apply the dollar to CNY conversion. We threw in tracking services and an e-mail confirmation for free, in part because China was poor, and we were rich. Also, the deal was pushed by e-Bay and Amazon, two big supporters of Obama’s presidency.

US suppliers cannot compete.

Adding insult to injury, Obama raised the de minimis amount for billing tariffs from the normal $100 to $800 making almost all purchases from China duty free. Obama made some complaints about unfair trade, and about the counterfeits and knockoffs but no major enforcement. In 2012 and 2014, the Obama administration signed similar postage deals with Korea, Hong Kong, and the EU. The Germans applauded as it allows them to ship goods to the US for far less than the cost of us shipping to Germany. The US post office loses money on this and makes up for it by charging us more for domestic mail.

The Washington Post praised Obama on these deals claiming that they benefitted US customer and promoted democracy. Of course, the Washington Post is owned by Amazon’s main stock holder, Jeff Bezos– someone who benefits very much by the deal. He is among the relatively few people and organizations that own the media outlets. The Post loses money on newspaper sales but benefits the owners by the propaganda value of the stories, a situation also found with Al Jazeera and the emir of Qatar.

Trump has informed China that these special rates will end when the treaty runs out in January 1, 2021. A per-package ship fee will be $3.00 for a one ounce package, with 11¢ per additional once. This is less than the domestic rate, but far higher than the current 35¢ for 1 oz. I’d probably have raised their postage even more, but this is an election year, and Biden may well reverse any deal Trump signs.

Robert Buxbaum, July 14, 2020. Though I’m appalled by this postage deal, I just bought a 50 lb kayak from China, $99.99 including shipping. The prices are too low to pass up.

Methuselah palm finds a mate after 2100 years

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The Judean date palm was extinct until 15 years ago, remembered only through pictures, eg. on ancient coins, see below, and mentions in ancient books including the psalms of David. There were also some ancient seeds, 2100 years old, that had been found buried in a jar near the entry ramp of the fortress Masada. Sarah Sallon of Israel’s Natural Medicine Research Center became convinced that these dates had medicinal as well as historical value, and badgered the archeologists for seed samples and permission to try her luck reviving this extinct plant. The archeologists thought she was nuts but eventually she got permission to try her luck with some seeds that Prof Ehud Netzer, had stored in his desk.

Dr. Elaine Solowey, Dr. Elaine Solowey, Director of the Center for Sustainable Agriculture, and, the Methuselah tree. Note the distinctive leaves. The tree is not ten feet tall and ready to mate.

Against all odds, Dr. Sallon, in 2005, succeeded in germinating one of these ancient seeds, a feat thought to be botanically impossible. Named, Methuselah it was the oldest seed ever grown, attracting wide international attention. But it was a one-off, a male without a female plant.

Methuselah was, at that point, a historic artifact – an interesting tourist attraction at the center fro sustainable agriculture. There was no way to grow the famous Judaic dates, though without a female parent. But Dr. Sallon was undeterred, she found another archaeologist who had recovered a trove of date seeds from various sites in Qumran — the site where the Dead Sea scrolls had been discovered, plus from the Wadi Makukh and the Wadi Kelt. Some of these seeds were as old as the one that produced Methuselah.

Vespasian coin with Judaean palm and the legend “Iudaea Capta.” (Judea is captured). A Judean date palm is shown along with a mourning Jew and a triumphant Roman.

A group headed by Dr. Sallon, selected a total of 34 seeds for further study, choosing specimens that appeared to be visually to be intact, whole seeds, in good condition, and without holes. Chosen to study included more seeds from Masada (8 seeds), Qumran (18 seeds), Wadi Makukh (7 seeds), and Wadi Kelt (1 seed). The seeds were identified by code numbers, photographed, and measured for weight and length (with the exception of Masada seeds, which unfortunately were not measured). One date seed, from the Qumran excavations (HU 37 A11), was selected as a control and left unplanted.

The remaining 33 seeds were subjected to a preparatory process to increase the likelihood of germination): the seeds were soaked in water for 24 hours and in gibberellic acid (5.19 mM) (OrthoGrow, USA) for 6 hours to encourage embryonic growth. This was followed by Hormoril T8 solution (5 g/liter) (Asia-Riesel, Israel) for 6 hours to encourage rooting and KF-20 organic fertilizer (10 ml/liter) (VGI, Israel) for 12 hours. All solutions were maintained at 35°C.

Following the above procedure, one seed was found to be damaged and not planted. The others were separately potted in sterile potting soil, 1 cm below the surface, and placed in a locked quarantine site at the Arava Institute of Environmental Sciences in southern Israel.

The six young trees. the two females are at the bottom right.

Six of these germinated. Periodically they were treated with KF-20 (10 ml/liter) and iron chelate (10 g/liter). Irrigation used desalinated water, as the previous study indicated that using the region’s highly mineralized water produced “tip burn” (darkening and drying of leaves). The seeds that did not germinate were removed for further testing and the shells of the seeds that did sprout were tested to determine their sex,  Of the six, two were determined to be female and four male. The female plants have been named Judith and Hannah, two Biblical names associated with children. It will be many years before they can mate, but it’s a hopeful start. The four other plants are Adam, Jonah, Urial, and Boaz. Radio-carbon dating suggests that one of these female seeds is 2100 years old, like Methuselah, while the other is only 1900 years old. See article in AAAS.

If either of the female plants survives to maturity, and if they prove to be compatible, we may yet get to eat of the famous biblical fruit. When the Bible calls Israel is called the land of milk and honey, the honey is the date honey of this tree.  Will these dry bones yet rise and live? Perhaps so. Dr. Solloway seas the revival of this plant as a symbol of hope. I do too.

Robert E. Buxbaum, June 7, 2020, There is a bit of Frankenstein in any revival of the dead, but I’m ore comfortable bringing back ancient plants than bringing back the Wooly Mammoth, the passenger pigeon, or the T Rex.

When prostitution was legal in America, 1863-65.

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Readers of this blog know that I am not a fan of very harsh punishments for crime, in particular for crimes that have no direct victim, e.g. drug possession and sales. Prostitution is another crime with no direct victim. One could argue that society as a whole is the victim, but my sense is that punishments should be minimal and targeted, e.g. to prevent involuntary human trafficking and disease. Our current laws, depicted here, are clearly not designed for this, but there was a brief period where prostitution laws did make more sense. During the civil war, civil war, prostitution was legal and regulated to prevent disease.

In 1862, Union forces captured the southern cities of Nashville and Memphis, Tenn. Major Gen. William Rosecrans set up headquarters in Nashville. Before the war, Nashville was home to 198 white prostitutes and nine  “mulatto,” operating in a two-block area known as “Smoky Row.” 

By the end of 1862,  Smokey row had grown and these numbers swelled to 1,500 “public women”. White southern women turned to prostitution out of poverty, largely. Their husbands were dead, or ill paid, and they were joined by recently freed slaves. Benton E. Dubbs, a Union private, reported a saying that “no man culd [sic] be a soldier unless he had gone through Smokey Row,” … “The street was about three-fourths of a mile long and every house or shanty on both sides was a house of ill fame. Women had no thought of dress or decency. They say Smokey Row killed more soldiers than the war.” 

By 1863, venerial disease was becoming a major problem. The Surgeon General would document 183,000 cases of venereal disease in the Union Army alone, “…the Pocks and the Clap. The cases of this complaint is numerous, especially among the officers.”  

Permit for Legal prostitution signed by Col George Spaulding.

At first General Rosecrans directed his assistant, Colonel Spaulding, to remove the women by sending them to other states, first by train, and then by boat commandeering the ship, Idaho for the purpose. The effect was horrible, not only was the ship turned back by every city, but the departure of these ladies just resulted in the appearance of a new cohort of sex-workers. By the time the Idaho had returned, Rosecrans had been relieved of command following embarrassing defeats at Chickamauga and Chattanooga . Col. Spaulding now tried a new technique to stop the plague of VD: legalized prostitution. It worked.

Women’s hospital during the war, Nashville.

For a $5/month fee a “public woman” could become a legal prostitute, or “Public Woman” so long as she submitted to monthly health inspections for a certificate of her soundness. If found infected, she was to report to a hospital dedicated to this treatment, was subject to imprisonment if she operated without the license and certificate. The effect was a major decline in sexually-transmitted disease, and an improvement (so it is claimed) in the quality of the services. The fees collected were sufficient to cover the cost of the operation and hospital, nearly.

At the end of the war, Col Spaulding and the union soldiers left Nashville, and prostitution returned to being illegal, if tolerated. One assumes that the VD rates went up as well.

George Spaulding, Congressman..

Colonel Spaulding and Maj. General Rosecrans are interesting characters beyond the above. Spaulding had entered the war as a private and rose through the ranks by merit. The rise didn’t stop at colonel. After the war, he became postmaster of Monroe Michigan, 1866 to 1870, US Treasury agent, 1871 to 1875, Mayor of Monroe, 1876 to ?, President of the board of education, a lawyer in 1878, and congressman for the MI 2nd district (Republican) 1894 -1898. He also served as board member of the Home for Girls 1885 to 1897, and postmaster of Monroe, 1899 to 1907.

William Rosecrans was a Catholic, engineer-inventor from West Point. Before the war, in 1853, he designed St. Mary’s Roman Catholic Church, one of the largest US churches at the time, site of the wedding of John Kennedy and Jacqueline Bouvier. He also designed and installed one of the first lock systems in Western Virginia. He and two partners built an early oil refinery. He patented a method of soap making and the first kerosene lamp to burn a round wick, and was one of the eleven incorporators of the Southern Pacific Railroad. After the war, he served as Ambassador to Mexico, 1868-69 and was congressman from California, 1st district (Democrat) 1880 – 1884. A true Democrat, Rosecrans could not stand either Grant or Garfield, and fought against Grant getting a retirement package.

Robert Buxbaum, June 5, 2020. There are other ways to stop the spread of sexual diseases. During the AIDS epidemic, condoms were the preferred method, and during the current COVID crisis, face masks are being touted. My preference is iodine hand wash. All methods work if they can reduce the transmission rate, Ro below 1.

Biden’s touching problem.

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Ex VP, Joe Biden has a long history of touching people in uncomfortable ways. He does it with men and women, and has a particular problem with children. As bad as it is to grab a sheriff on the leg, or Hillary Clinton when she clearly does not want to be grabbed, it’s quite a lot worse to fondle the hair and face of a child you are not related to (above). An expert reviewing the video of his many grabs, pats, and hair sniffs, came to conclude that Biden behaves like a predator.

Biden grabs a sheriff in a ways that most find inappropriate. He says’s its just his way to make a connection. Others say it’s ‘his power move.’

Adding to Biden’s touching problems, Tara Reade, one of Biden’s staffers has come forward to say that Biden not only made her feel uncomfortable, but pinned her to a wall at the capital building, penetrated her with his hand, and asked for sex. When a panel of experts went over her testimony and Biden’s denial, they came away believing Tara, and not believing Biden. Here is a video with them discussing the various tells that cause them to doubt Biden. Here is another video with the same individuals discussing Reade’s accusation.

Biden applies his power move on Secretary of State Clinton.

What’s to be done? There are still may in the Democratic party who would like to see Biden drop out in favor of someone less tainted, like Bernie. Others, like Illan Omar have concluded that despite Biden being a predator, she supports him as providing the best chance to defeat Donald Trump.

Robert Buxbaum, June 4, 2020

Brazilian scientists speak out for hydroxychloroquine

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Brazil has decided to go its own route in response to the Corona virus pandemic. They’re using minimal social distancing with a heavy reliance on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a cheap drug that they claim is effective (as has our president). Brazil has been widely criticized for this, despite so far having lower death rate per million than the US, Canada, or most of Europe. In an open letter, copied in part below, 25 Brazilian scientists speak out against the politicalization of science, and in favor of their approach to COVID-19. The full letter (here). The whole letter is very worth reading, IMHO, but especially worthwhile is their section on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), copied below.

….. Numerous countries such as the USA, Spain, France, Italy, India, Israel, Russia, Costa Rica and Senegal use the drug (HCQ) to fight covid-19, whereas other countries refrain from using HCQ as one of the strategies to contain the pandemic, betting on other controversial tactics.

Who then speaks here in the name of “science”? Which group has a monopoly on reason and its exclusive authorization to be the spokesperson of “science”? Where is such authorization found?One can choose an opinion, and base his strategy on it, this is fine, but no one should commit the sacrilege of protecting his decision risking to tarnish with it the “sacred mantle of science”.

Outraged, every day I hear mayors and governors saying at the top of their lungs that they “have followed science”. Presidents of councils and some of their advisers, and of academies and deans in their offices write letters on behalf of their entire community, as if they reflect everyone’s consensual position. Nothing could be more false.Have they followed science? Not at all! They have followed the science wing which they like, and the scientists who they chose to place around them. They ignore the other wing of science, since there are also hundreds of scientists and articles that oppose their positions and measures.

Worse, scientists are not angels. Scientists are people, and people have likes and dislikes, passions and political party preferences. Or wouldn’t they? There are many scientists, therefore, who do good without looking at whom, I know and admire many of them. But there are also pseudoscientists who use science to defend their opinion, their own pocket, or their passion. Scientists have worked and still work hard and detached to contribute to the good of humanity, many of whom are now in their laboratories, risking their lives to develop new methods of detecting coronavirus, drugs and vaccines, when they could stay “safe at home”. But, to illustrate my point, I know scientists who have published articles, some even in major journals such as “Science” or “Nature”, with data they have manufactured “during the night”; others who have removed points from their curves, or used other similar strategies. Many scientists were at Hitler’s side, weren’t they? Did they act in the name of “science”? Others have developed atom bombs. Others still develop chemical and biological weapons and illicit drugs, by design.

The Manaus’ study with chloroquine (CQ) performed here in Brazil and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) [1], is emblematic to this discussion of “science”. Scientists there used, the manuscript reveals, lethal doses in debilitated patients, many in severe conditions and with comorbidities. The profiles of the groups do not seem to have been “randomized”, since a clear “preference” in the HIGH DOSE group for risk factors is noted. Chloroquine, which is more toxic than HCQ, was used, and it seems that they even made “childish mistakes” in simple stoichiometric calculations, doubling the dosage with the error. I’m incapable of judging intentions, but justice will do it. The former Brazilian Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta quoted this study, supported it, and based on it, categorically stated: “I do not approve HCQ because I am based on ‘science, science, science’!”.

Another study published by Chinese researchers in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and which is still persistently used against HCQ was also at least revolting [2]. In it, the authors declared: “we administer 1,200 mg for 3 days, followed by 800 mg for 12 to 21 days, in patients with moderate to severe symptoms”. In other words, they gave a huge dosage of the drug that could reach the absurdity of 20 grams in the end, and it given was too late to patients (HCQ should be administered in the first symptoms or even earlier). And even worse, overdosing on HCQ or any other drug for severe cases is poisonous. What do you think, was it good science? The recommended dosage in Brazil, since May 20th, 2020, by the new Ministry of Health, for mild symptoms is 2 times 400 mg in the first day (every 12 hours) and 400 mg for 5 days for a total of 2.8 grams.

In other published studies, also in these internationally renowned journals such as The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA and BMJ [3-5], once again, “problems” are clearly noted, since or the patients were randomized in irregular ways, placing older, more susceptible or most severe and hypoxemic patients in the higher (lethal) dose groups, or more men (almost 3 times more deadly by covid than women), or more black people (in the USA, black people have displayed higher mortality) and more smokers, and where most of the deaths occurred in the first days of the studies (signs that were deaths of critically ill patients, who at this stage would be more “intoxicated” than “treated” with HCQ), or they administered HCQ isolated, when it is known that it is necessary to associate HCQ at least with azithromycin. One of these studies [5] administered HCQ only on the sixteenth day of symptoms (for really early treatment, HCQ administration should be started up to fifth day), in other words, at the end of the disease, when the drug can do little good or nothing to the patient.

These studies indicate that some scientists either forgot how “science” is done or that there is a huge effort to disprove, whatever it takes, that HCQ works. How can someone or even Councils and Academies of Medicine cite such studies as the “science” of their decisions? How can that be?

On the contrary, the study published – and today with more than 3 thousand patients tested – and carried out by Dr. Didier Raoult in France [6], using the correct dosage and at the right time, with a very low mortality rate (0.4%), and the Prevent Senior’s clinical experience in Brazil – also quite encouraging – are disqualified with very “futile” arguments such as: “Didier Raoult is a controversial and unworthy researcher”, “At Prevent Senior Clinic they were not sure of the diagnosis” (but none of the hospitalized patients with clear COVID symptoms died), “Placebo effect” (what a supernatural power of inducing our mind that reduces mortality from 40% to zero, I want this placebo!), “Study performed by a health plan company” (I do not doubt that this people indeed want to save lives, because the patients were their customers who pay their bills), and similar ephemeral arguments.…

The Brazilian scents who signed the letter. Read the whole letter here.

I admire the spunk of these fellows going agains the doctors, WHO. Beyond being a critique of bad research on a particular drug, it is a defense of science. Science is a discussion, a striving for truth. It is not supposed to demand blind allegiance to a few politically appointed experts. They’ve convinced me that the tests sponsored by the world health organization seem designed to show failure, and reminded me that there is rarely a one-size-fits-all for problems and all times.

I also find striking the highly critical response of my local newspapers and TV reporters. While they both like to highlight efforts by South America as they try entering the first world, with help from Bill gates and leftist politicians, they have been uniformly condemned Brazil for its non-left approach and now for use of HCQ. They want Sous Americans to think, but only if their conclusions are no different from those of their favorite, liberal thinkers.

Robert Buxbaum, May 28, 2020. Check out my notes on how to do science right. And by the way, you might want to use iodine hand wash to minimize your chance of getting or spreading COVID and other diseases.

Iodine is far better than soap or alcohol sanitizer.

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I’m a fan of iodine both as a hand sanitizer, and as a sanitizer for surfaces. II’ve made gallons of the stuff for my own use and to give away. Perhaps I’ll come to sell it too. Unlike soap washing or alcohol sanitizer, iodine stays on your hands for hours after you use it. Alcohol evaporates in a few seconds, and soap washes off. The result is that iodine retains killing power after you use it. The iodine that I make and use is 0.1%, a concentration that is non-toxic to humans but very toxic to viruses. Here is an article about the effectiveness of iodine against viruses and bacteria Iodine works both on external surfaces, and internally, e.g. when used as a mouthwash. Iodine kills germs in all environments, and has been used for this purpose for a century.

With normal soap or sanitizer it’s almost impossible to keep from reinfecting your hands almost as soon as you wash. I’ve embedded a video showing why that is. It should play below, but here’s the link to the video on youtube, just in case it does not.

The problem with washing your hands after you receive an item, like food, is that you’re likely to infect the sink faucet and the door knob, and the place where you set the food. Even after you wash, you’re likely to re-infect yourself almost immediately and then infect the towel. Because iodine lasts on your hands for hours, killing germs, you have a good chance of not infecting yourself. If you live locally, come by for a free bottle of sanitizer.

For those who’d like more clinical data to back up the effectiveness of iodine, here’s a link to a study, I also made a video on the chemistry of iodine relevant to why it kills germs. You might find it interesting. It appears below, but if it does not play right, Here’s a link.

The video shows two possible virus fighting interactions, including my own version of the clock reaction. The first of these is the iodine starch interaction, where iodine bonds forms an I<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup> complex, I then show that vitamin C unbinds the iodine, somewhat, by reducing the iodine to iodide, I<sup>-</sup>. I then add hydrogen peroxide to deoxidize the iodine, remove an electron. The interaction of vitamin C and hydrogen peroxide creates my version of the clock reaction. Fun stuff.

The actual virus fighting mechanism of iodine is not known, though the data we have suggests the mechanism is a binding with the fatty starches of the viral shell, the oleo-polysaccharides. Backing this mechanism is the observation that the shape of the virus does not change when attacked by iodine, and that the iodine is somewhat removable, as in the video. It is also possible that iodine works by direct oxidation, as does hydrogen peroxide or chlorine. Finally, I’ve seen a paper showing that internal iodine, more properly called iodide works too. My best guess about how that would work is that the iodide is oxidized to iodine once it is in the body.

There is one more item that is called iodine, that one might confuse with the “metallic” iodine solutions that I made, or that are sold as a tincture. These are the iodine compounds used for CAT-scan contrast. These are not iodine itself, but complex try-iodo-benzine compounds. Perhaps the simplest of these is diatrizoate. Many people are allergic to this, particularly those who are allergic to sea food. If you are allergic to this dye, that does not mean that you will be allergic to a simple iodine solution as made below.

The solution I made is essentially 0.1% iodine in water, a concentration that has been shown to be particularly effective. I add potassium iodide, plus isopropyl alcohol, 1%, 1% glycerine and 0.5% mild soap. The glycerine and soap are there to maintain the pH and to make the mix easier on your hands when it dries. I apply 5-10 ml to my hands and let the liquid dry in place.

Robert Buxbaum April 27, 2020; I’m running for water commissioner again. Wishing you a safe and happy lockdown,