Category Archives: personal relationships

When to enter a neighbors war or family dispute

6 Replies

As I write this, our favored insurgents in Syria have been over-run by our disfavored insurgents, who may be over-run by the government we are trying to topple. We have also committed to help Japan and Vietnam in their disputes with China. I’ve also had the experience of dealing with a couple going through a bitter divorce. So here are five thoughts for myself and president Obama on getting involved in other people’s problems. I’ll hope that at least one person (me) listens.

1. Learn how to wait without committing to either side so you don’t step in something really smelly. Commiserate with both sides; yes you have grievances, yes what they’ve done isn’t nice. Suggest outside review. Just don’t commit until you feel comfortable sticking with this one side in victory, defeat, or (possible) reconciliation.

In a war, even simple gifts of food or transport are support; avoid these gifts, and especially avoid gifts to both sides. Assume any support to a side will be considered treason from the other side. Supporting both sides just causes havoc, and it’s always possible that your gifts will fall in the hands of the wrong side, as in Syria.

Being helpful isn't always helpful. Matthew Deffee, The New Yorker

Being helpful isn’t always helpful, or appreciated. Learn to wait. Matthew Deffee, The New Yorker

Remind yourself that disputes are a normal part of life, that peace always comes eventually, and that disputes are sometimes good in the long run. Offer sympathy only until you really want to support one side or the other — or until they make peace. When peace comes, it’s possible that the resolution will be better than the status quo-anti. As such, perhaps long-term non-intervention is the best cure. Time often answers what wisdom does not.

2.  If you choose to support a side, only support one that openly, and traditionally supports us. No Syrian leaders have openly pledged support to the US and its allies; why ally with someone who won’t support you? The enemy of your enemy might be another enemy, as with the Taliban. In a marriage dispute, lean to support your close relative or friend — it’s less offensive than the opposite, and less likely to cause hurt. As bad as it is when two sides attack each other, it’s worse when both attack you.

Only support someone who could rule reasonably honestly and well. Chaos is worse than a dictator. Kanin from the New Yorker.

Only support someone who could rule reasonably well. Chaos is worse than a dictator. Kanin from the New Yorker.

3. If you feel it’s important to act in a neighbor’s dispute, you don’t always have to ally with either side. You can retaliate for someone blowing up a ship or killing an advisor, or beating their children by intervening at a distance. Perhaps you can use a missile (ideally against a pointless target), or sanctions, or by the UN or a volunteer force (this tends to work for the US). In family disputes, it’s often best to send a councilor or the police or child protective services. There is room to escalate or de-escalate an action like this depending on how things play out. And it’s easier to distance yourself from a 3rd party’s actions than from one’s own. It is not necessary to support either side to achieve a personal goal or protect children in a divorce.

4.  If you decide to choose sides, make sure to keep in mind the end you seek: what good you want to do, what reasonable peace you seek, then act. Do not worry that you can not do everything, but make sure you target a viable end, and that you support a side that could win and rule. Try to pick a side that’s moral and perceived as legitimate from within, but if you can’t, at least pick one that could rule the country or manage the family without your help. Don’t support a loser, or one who can’t stand on his/her own. Chaos is worse than a crooked dictator; see, for example, the French Revolution. In a fight between parents, make sure the one you support could actually raise the kids. And once the goal is achieved, don’t stay too long. If a friend tells you to go, as in Afghanistan, leave quickly. Independence is the goal we hope for — for our children, our friends, and our neighbors.

Being a fair broker of peace is a great role -- in the proper time. From the New Yorker

Being a fair broker of peace is a great role — but only for the right person in the proper time. From the New Yorker

5. Be willing to serve as an honest broker of the peace. An honest broker is very valuable, and it requires that you’re perceived as unbiassed by both sides. Wait till the right moment before offering this service, and offer it like the precious jewel it is. Offer it when asked or when the fighting dies down. If the offer is refused, be willing to go away and return to the first rule. T. Roosevelt won the Nobel peace prize for ending the Russo-Japanese war because he was a good, honest broker: someone who understood the situation and could stand back when not needed.

Robert E. Buxbaum, Dec 18, 2013. Blessed are the peacemakers. 

Masculinist history of the modern world, pt. 2: WWII mustaches

10 Replies

Continuing my, somewhat tongue in cheek, Masculinist history, part 1: beards, I thought I’d move on to mustache history, centering on WWII. I see the conflict as big mustaches vs little mustaches leading to a peace of no face hair at all. First consider that, at the start of the war, virtually all the leaders had mustaches, with similar mustached men allied. Consider that Hitler was weird and hi’s mustache was weird, and that, within a few years of peace, virtually no major leader had a hairy lip. Why?

Let me begin by speculating that the mustache is worn by the man who wishes to be seen as manly, but who also wants to appear civilized. The message of the mustache, then: I’m a leader of great vision within a civilized society. Thus visionaries like Albert Einstein, Duke Ellington, S. Dali, and T. Roosevelt, all decided to grow mustaches. The mustache may not make men into champions of a new vision, but a man with the will to champion something new will tend to wear a mustache. It is thus no surprise that a world war would begin when all the world leaders had mustaches, or why a crazy person like Hitler would wear a crazy mustache, but why is it that so few world leaders have been mustached since. Where have all the mustaches gone? Read onward.

Emperor Akihito, center, had to open Japan; Emperor Meiji, upper right, a wild beard and terror who defeated China and Russia; Emperor Hirohito, bottom left, crafty mustache. Caveat Emperor. Tojo, bottom right, the man to lead the fight and pay the price.

Emperor Akihito, upper left was induced to open Japan; Emperor Meiji, upper right, defeated China and Russia; WWII Emperor Hirohito, bottom left; General Tojo, bottom right, the man to take the fall. Caveat Emperor.

As WWII begins with the Japanese, lets look at the face hair on several Japanese  emperors’ faces. At the upper left, Mikado (Emperor) Akihito. He had no vision, drive or mustache, and was induced to open Japan to the west in 1854 in response to his advisors and Admiral Perry who sailed 4 black warships into Tokyo harbor. His successor, Emperor Meiji (upper right, bearded) won wars against China and Russia in the late 1800s (see the significance of warlike beards). Emperor Hirohito, bottom left, wore the mustache and authorized the beginning of WWII including the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the rape of Nanking. His associate, General Tojo, bottom right, also mustached lead the actual deeds and took the blame. Akihito looks feminine and unhappy, as one might understand. Meiji looks like a holy terror; and both Hirohito and his general wear mustaches trimmed in the British style. My interpretation: their goal was to build a sea-land empire based on the British model.

After Emperor Meiji defeated China and Russia, his obvious next step should have been to attack the USA, but Meiji did not. Large-mustachioed, US President, Th. Roosevelt noticed the danger and used his “talk softly and carry a big stick” deterrent. He was a man of civilization and sent a “peace delegation” of white-pained warships to Tokyo Harbor. They were painted white for peace, and to differentiate the modern, civilized Roosevelt from President Tyler of the Black warships. The message seems to have gotten through to Meiji, and we had no more trouble from him, nor from his son (no face hair). But Meiji’s grandson, Hirohito joined with Tojo, and realized that all Americans were not like Th. Roosevelt. He ceased the opportunity of American isolationism and tried to get the job done as his grandfather would have wanted. They figured, correctly, that we didn’t want war, and incorrectly, that we would give up in the face of a single military victory. Hirohito had studied in England and admired the British empire. Seeing the power of bearded George V, he came to believe that a small, but unified island nation could take and hold a mighty empire so long as the nation was strong enough and understood modern organizational management. Surely it was time Japan made its empire by taking Hong Kong from England, Vietnam from France, The Philippines from the US, and (most importantly) Malaysia from the Dutch (Malaysia had oil). What’s the worst that could happen?

Hirohito built a world-power army and navy, and invaded China successfully. He fought Chiang Kai Shek (trimmed, British mustache; he was a modernizer himself). Meanwhile, for 15 years the Japanese military developed for empire. The military college planned an attack on Pearl Harbor based on careful organization and management. When carried out Dec. 7, 1941, the attack was brilliantly successful. The next day, Dec 8-9, the same “zero” planes that had hit Hawaii, helped destroy both the British navy near Hong Kong and the US airbase in the Philippines. We never even thought to prepare as we didn’t think the Japanese were organized or advance enough. The Mitsubishi “zero” was an advanced version of a Fiat design (see my piece on Fiat’s latest). As with other Fiat products, it was small, fast, maneuverable, efficient, and unreliable.

Now look at the European leaders, axis and allies, below. In the late 1930s, all sport mustaches except for Mussolini. This might suggest a world ripe for war that would benefit Mussolini: everyone’s vision can’t come to be, and most everyone might want to ally with a feminine peace-nick. At first, that’s what happened: modern military mustached Franco took over Spain from the old-fashioned, up-mustached king of Spain and his incompetent government. Mussolini was a passive ally. Big mustached Stalin took over the Baltic countries; Mussolini was his national-socialist friend. Half-mustache Hitler then allied with Mussolini and armed the Rhineland. This scares old-fashioned mustached Giraud (France) and British Chamberlain into giving him eastern Czechoslovakia. Mussolini looks on. Chamberlain comes to believe that he has achieved peace in our time, but he has not. Now, the big mustached king of Italy, Victor Emanuel chooses no-mustache Mussolini to restore Italian unity. Mussolini goes to war and takes Libya on his second try. He almost takes Greece too. Useless, clean-shaven, general Badoglio resigns. These conquests do not lead to world war or condemnation of Italy (or Germany, or Russia) The mustachioed socialists of France, Poland, England and the US have quite a lot in common with the national socialists of Germany and Italy. We hold, like they do, that the state must make the jobs if it is to pull out of the depression, and that the state must be strong, pure, and united — something best achieved by socialism and keeping immigrants out. The theme of the New York Word’s Fair in 1939 is Peace through Progress, a theme of unrealistic optimism. For now, though, the US is neutral, and all the nations have exhibitions in NY.

War of the mustache men. Top row: axis leaders at the beginning of WWII; l-r: Hitler, Franco (Spain), King Victor Emanuel and Mussolini (Italy), and Stalin (Russia, an early ally of Hitler). Bottom row: allied leaders, l-r; King Alfonso (Spain); Chang Kai Shek (China), François Lebrun (France), Ignazy Moscicki (Poland); N. Chamberlain (UK). All are mustached except Mussolini.

Top row: axis leaders at the beginning of WWII; l-r: Hitler, Franco (Spain), King Victor Emanuel and Mussolini (Italy), and Stalin Bottom row: allied leaders, l-r; King Alfonso (Spain); Chiang Kai Shek (China), François Lebrun (France), Ignazy Moscicki (Poland); N. Chamberlain (UK). All are mustached except Mussolini.

But peace isn’t in the cards as one could tell by the mustaches. Big mustache Stalin hatches a secret pact with small-mustache Hitler. They invade Poland together in September 1939. The mustache of the masses and the mustache of the pure race join to destroy Poland in a week. Because of treaties, England and France are now at war too, but they do nothing till May 1940. Not understanding that mustaches must war, they assume no war exists. This changes when Hitler sweeps his armies through Belgium and into Paris. England rejects the mustached enemies, and elects clean-shaved Winston Churchill, a Labor liberal turned Conservative. He sports a big-stick policy and wears a big-stick cigar. His cigar is like a flaming mustache, but far more mobile.

Churchill’s policies are just as mobile as his mustache. He confidently tells the masses, “We will fight them on the beaches.” And confidently tells the elites: “Remember gentlemen, it’s not just France we’re fighting for, it’s Champaign.” A cigar, unlike a mustache, can be warlike of peaceful: in your face or out depending on the group. A Republican with at cigar is a diplomat, not a dogmatist.

Churchill finds an ally in clean-shaven, cigarette holder, segregationist FDR. “Meeting FDR is like opening your first bottle of Champaign,” says Churchill, “Getting to know him is like drinking it.” The two english-speaking countries share a special relationship and similar smoking preferences. FDR, still vowing neutrality, lends England ships tanks, and money, but sends no troupes except volunteers (the Lafayette squadron). With this diplomatic, middle road in place, FDR handily defeats the shaven, cigarette smoking, war-monger, Wendell Wilkie in the 1940 election (Wilkie used to be a Democrat). The Free French take to small mustache, Charles De Gaulle, in preference to the larger mustache, Philippe Petain, or the similarly mustached Edourd Deladier and Maurice Gamelin.

De Gaulle and Churchill do not get along. De Gaulle (small mustache) wants action. He becomes the liberation of French Africa. Meanwhile, Churchill talks war, but only to defend “this rock, this England.” De Gaulle describes the differences this way:  “I get angry when I’m right, and Churchill gets angry when he’s wrong; therefore we are angry at each other quite a lot.” Churchill claims that “going to war without the French is like going hunting without your bagpipe.”

Roosevelt has much in common with Churchill as might be guessed from the lack of face hair and the similar smoking choices. The two major clean-shaven leaders meet and pray together abroad the HMS Prince of Wales in August 1941. Roosevelt meets too and gets along with Mrs. Chiang Kai Shek (no face hair, needless to say). He sends Madame Chiang a less-than-well funded, volunteer force, The American Volunteer Group, otherwise known as The Flying Tigers. This group is given 99 obsolete planes that the French had ordered, and is put under the command of Claire Chennault, a mustached WWI flier, and self-appointed colonel. Chennault recruits the drunken dregs of the US army air corps with the promise of $500 per Japanese plane. In the few months before WWII, The Flying Tigers destroy nearly 200 Japanese planes while heavily outnumbered and out gunned. Most of the flyers are mustached. Ad-hoc Volunteer forces seem to work for the USA: T. Roosevelt had success as a self-appointed Lt. Colonel 40 years earlier. Eventually, The flying Tigers are re-absorbed into the Army Air Corps; Chennault and his Tigers take a shave and join the regulars.

Meanwhile, mustached, long haired, Albert Einstein (a visionary if ever there was one) comes to understand the potential of the atom bomb. While most of the world still believes that matter and energy and independent entities, Einstein realizes that even a small amount of mass converted to energy can destroy a city. Speaking of science and art, he says, “Everything that is really great and inspiring is created by individuals who labor in freedom.” Within 5 years, his visionary ideas will help end the war, and few scientists will sport face hair or labor in freedom. Einstein encourages FDR to build the A-bomb. FDR spends $3 billion ($70B in 2013 dollars) under the management of visionary, mustachioed General Leslie Groves. The best physicists and engineers of the US and Europe join together to build the device Einstein described; it’s the A Bomb built by the A Team.

Meanwhile back in Europe, weird mustached, Hitler attacks his ally Stalin and despite massive deaths seems to be winning (c.f. Napoleon, 140 years earlier). Stalin joins the shaven allies (for now) against Germany, and immediately sets to steal the secret of the A Bomb. Churchill doesn’t trust him, a good call since Stalin is still allied with the mustached Mikado of Japan in the East against Britain. And then the Pearl Harbor attack, December 7, 1941, and everything changes. On December 8 Congress declares war on Japan, and Hitler declares war on us (perhaps the stupidest move of the 20th century). Churchill says he had the first good night’s sleep in years, but does nothing to protect the English navy or air force from Japan’s zero fighters. The HMS Prince of Wales is sunk December 10. The Canadian cost and California oil tanks are attacked by Japanese submarine-fired cannon. And what about Stalin? Through all of this, he remains allied with Japan and with us (what a man). It’s something you might have expected from his mustache.

Allied leaders toward the end of WWII. De Gaulle, Stalin, Churchill, FDR, Chiang Kai Shek, Mao Tze Tung. Only de Gaulle and Stalin have mustaches; Stalin is still an ally of Japan; Mao and Chiang at war. The US and UK share a special relationship.

Decline of the mustache. Allied leaders early 1945. l-r: De Gaulle, Stalin, Churchill, FDR, Chiang Kai Shek, Mao Tze Tung. Only de Gaulle and Stalin have mustaches; Stalin is still an ally of Japan; Mao and Chiang at war over China. The US and UK share a special relationship.

US dollars and Russian manpower turn the tide in Europe. Hitler kills himself and is replaced by clean-shaven Keitel who sues for peace (too little, too late). Mussolini flees Italy for Switzerland, and gets help killing himself. Fascist-free Italy turns to a mustache-free leader: General Badoglio of the failed Greek invasion. Stalin takes over Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Hungary, and East Germany. Churchill objects and is tossed out of office while negotiating at Yalta. He’s replaced by small mustached Clement Attlee who sees no problem with Stalin’s expansion. His is a  grand (socialist) vision for England.

Civil-rightist Republican from NY, Tom Dewey is the major presidential candidate to host a mustache.

Civil-rightist NY Republican, Tom Dewey, the last mustached presidential hopeful, loses.

Fresh-faced, smoker, FDR dies in a liaison with a woman not his wife, and is followed by feisty, fresh-faced, non-smokier, Harry S. Truman, who continues FDR’s vision and drops two A-Bombs on Japan as twice pay-back for Pearl harbor. Stalin switches sides, sort of, for now: Japan is now his enemy, but Mao, not Chiang is a friend. Hirohito sees the new (atomic) light and the Russian army; he surrenders to the Americans. His mustache is much reduced at surrender (see below). Hirohito, still the visionary, admits he’s not a god, nor is he the gate to God (Mikado means heavenly gate; the title stops being used except for light opera). Tojo takes the blame for the war, and is executed. Mao Tze Tung conquers China after Chang Kai Shek flees to Taiwan. Stalin turns on his hairless, hapless, ex-allies. He keeps eastern Europe in contravention of the Yalta agreements, and kills a few million of his troupes: a peacetime army is dangerous. Franco keeps power in Spain.

Small-mustache Attlee builds a British A-Bomb, and takes over most of British business including The Bank of England, civil aviation, the coal mines, the steel industry, the railways, most road haulage, canals, cable and wireless, electricity and gas, and The Thomas Cooke travel agency. His grand vision provides England full employment, better work conditions, and health care, but also rationing, starvation and a lack of fuel. Attlee tries to stop Jewish migration to Israel and the formation of the state. He remains in power till 1950, becoming the last, and perhaps greatest, of several great, mustached, British prime ministers. Churchill’s shaven face returns to oversee England’s stagnation. Click for Churchill-Attlee jokes, jibes and insights.

In the US, clean-shaven Truman wins re-election against the last mustachioed presidential candidate, New York, civil-rightist, Republican, Thomas Dewey. De Gaulle is tossed out of office, but returns to build France’s A- bomb and reject NATO. De Gaulle’s little mustache is the last face hair seen on the leader of a nuclear nation.

The war ends here. Hirohito, McArthur, and Mr A-Bomb. Hirohito now has a smaller stature and mustache. Tojo gets executed.

The war ends here. Hirohito, McArthur, and Mr. A-Bomb. Hirohito now has a smaller stature and a much smaller mustache (looks like Tom Dewey, or every racist Japanese depiction). Tojo gets executed for Hirohito’s crimes. And the world moves to cautious shaven leaders and the ever-present nuclear threat.

And now the key question: why do mustaches lose favor so fast? My thought is that the Bomb is to blame. That, and the relative failures of mustached leaders in Europe. It’s a new dangerous world, with no place for men with big plans who might use the A-bomb to get-the-job-done. This is a weapon that kills more than soldiers and civilians; it could kill elites too, and no elitist wants a leader who might kill one of the elite. The A-Bomb is never again used in war, but it is always in the war room. Nuclear leaders must stay calm, and give the image of one who will use the bomb only as a last resort, to protect the home-land, or never. China, Pakistan, India, North Korea (and Israel) get “defensive” A-bombs but make no move to use them in anger. Goldwater claims he might, and is handily defeated in 1964. After WWII, all nuclear power leaders are more-or-less feminine looking, if not more feminist. Is this the future? Check out pt 1: Beards, Republicans, and Communists.

Dr. Robert E. Buxbaum, Nov. 28, 2013. I’m not sure if these post is ridiculous, or if it’s brilliant. At the least, it’s an observation of a pattern, and any observed pattern may lead to truth. I’ve written on modern architecture, art,  how to climb a ladder without falling off, plus on guns, curtains, crime, healthcare, heat bills, nuclear power, and the minimum wage.

A Masculinist History of the Modern World, pt. 1: Beards

7 Replies

Most people who’ve been in university are familiar with feminist historical analysis: the history of the world as a long process of women’s empowerment. I thought there was a need for a masculinist history of the world, too, and as this was no-shave November, I thought it should focus on the importance of face hair in the modern world. I’d like to focus this post on the importance of beards, particularly in the rise of communism and of the Republican party. I note that all the early communists and Republicans were bearded. More-so, the only bearded US presidents have been Republicans, and that their main enemies from Boss Tweed, to Castro to Ho Chi Minh, have all been bearded too. I note too, that communism and the Republican party have flourished and stagnated along with the size of their beards, with a mustache interlude of the early to mid 20th century. I’ll shave that for my next post.

Marxism and the Republican Party started at about the same time, bearded. They then grew in parallel, with each presenting a face of bold, rugged, machismo, fighting the smooth tongues and chins of the Democrats and of Victorian society,and both favoring extending the franchise to women and the oppressed through the 1800s against opposition from weak-wristed, feminine liberalism.

Marx and Engles (middle) wrote the Communist Manifesto in 1848, the same year that Lincoln joined the new Republican Party, and the same year that saw Louis Napoleon (right) elected in France. The communists both wear full bards, but there is something not-quite sincere in the face hair at right and left.

Marx and Engels (middle) wrote the Communist Manifesto in 1848, the same year that Lincoln joined the new Republican Party, and the same year that saw Louis Napoleon (right) elected in France. The communists both wear full bards, but there is something not-quite sincere in the face hair at right and left.

Karl Marx (above, center left, not Groucho, left) founded the Communist League with Friedrich Engels, center right, in 1847 and wrote the communist manifesto a year later, in 1848. In 1848, too, Louis Napoleon would be elected, and the same year 1848 the anti-slavery free-soil party formed, made up of Whigs and Democrats who opposed extending slavery to the free soil of the western US. By 1856 the Free soils party had collapsed, along with the communist league. The core of the free soils formed the anti-slavery Republican party and chose as their candidate, bearded explorer John C. Fremont under the motto, “Free soil, free silver, free men.” For the next century, virtually all Republican presidential candidates would have face hair.

Lincoln the Whig had no beard -- he was the western representative of the party of Eastern elites. Lincoln the Republican grew whiskers. He was a log-cabin frontiersman, rail -splitter.

Lincoln, the Whig, had no beard — he was the western representative of the party of eastern elites. Lincoln, the Republican, grew whiskers. He was now a log-cabin frontiersman, rail-splitter.

In Europe, revolution was in the air: the battle of the barricades against clean-chined, Louis Napoleon. Marx (Karl) writes his first political economic work, the Critique of Political Economy, in 1857 presenting a theory of freedom by work value. The political economic solution of slavery: abolish property. Lincoln debates Douglas and begins a run for president while still clean-shaven. While Mr. Lincoln did not know about Karl Marx, Marx knew about Lincoln. In the 1850s and 60s he was employed as a correspondent  for the International Herald Tribune, writing about American politics, in particular about the American struggle with slavery and inflation/ deflation cycles.

William Jennings Bryan, 3 time Democrat presidential candidate, opponent of alcohol, evolution, and face hair.

William Jennings Bryan was three-times the Democratic presidential candidate; more often than anyone else. He opposed alcohol, gambling, big banks, intervention abroad, monopoly business, teaching evolution, and gold — but he supported the KKK, and unlike most Democrats, women’s suffrage.

As time passed, bearded frontier Republicans would fight against the corruption of Tammany Hall, and the offense to freedom presented by prohibition, anti industry sentiment, and anti gambling laws. Against them, clean-shaven Democrat elites could claim they were only trying to take care of a weak-willed population that needed their help. The Communists would gain power in Russia, China, and Vietnam fighting against elites too, not only in their own countries but American and British elites who (they felt) were keeping them down by a sort of mommy imperialism.

In the US, moderate Republicans (with mustaches) would try to show a gentler side to this imperialism, while fighting against Democrat isolationism. Mustached Communists would also present a gentler imperialism by helping communist candidates in Europe, Cuba, and the far east. But each was heading toward a synthesis of ideas. The republicans embraced (eventually) the minimum wage and social security. Communists embraced (eventually) some limited amount of capitalism as a way to fight starvation. In my life-time, the Republicans could win elections by claiming to fight communism, and communists could brand Republicans as “crazy war-mongers”, but the bureaucrats running things were more alike than different. When the bureaucrats sat down together, it was as in Animal Farm, you could look from one to the other and hardly see any difference.

The history of Communism seen as a decline in face hair. The long march from the beard to the bare.

The history of Communism seen as a decline in face hair. The long march from the beard to the bare. From rugged individualism to mommy state socialism. Where do we go from here?

Today both movements provide just the barest opposition to the Democratic Party in the US, and to bureaucratic socialism in China and the former Soviet Union. All politicians oppose alcohol, drugs, and gambling, at least officially; all oppose laser faire, monopoly business and the gold standard in favor of government created competition and (semi-controlled) inflation. All oppose wide-open immigration, and interventionism (the Republicans and Communists a little less). Whoever is in power, it seems the beardless, mommy conservatism of William Jennings Bryan has won. Most people are happy with the state providing our needs, and protecting our morals. is this to be the permanent state of the world? There is no obvious opposition to the mommy state. But without opposition won’t these socialist elites become more and more oppressive? I propose a bold answer, not one cut from the old cloth; the old paradigms are dead. The new opposition must sprout from the bare chin that is the new normal. Behold the new breed of beard.

The future opposition must grow from the barren ground of the new normal.

The future opposition must grow from the barren ground of the new normal. Another random thought on the political implications of no-shave November.

by Robert E. Buxbaum, No Shave, November 15, 2013. Keep watch for part 2 in this horrible (tongue in) cheek series: World War 2: Big mustache vs little mustache. See also: Roosevelt: a man, a moose, a mustache, and The surrealism of Salvador: man on a mustache.

 

How to make fine lemonade

As part of discussing a comment by H.L. Mencken, that a philosopher was a man in a dark room looking for a black cat that wasn’t there, I alluded to the idea that a good person should make something or do something, perhaps make lemonade, but I gave no recipe. Here is the recipe for lemonade something you can do with your life that benefits everyone around:

The key is to use lots of water, and not too much lemon. Start a fresh lemon and two 16 oz glasses. Cut the lemon in half and squeeze half into each glass, squeezing out all of the juice by hand (you can use a squeezer). Ideally, you should pass the juice through a screen for the pits, but if you don’t have one it’s OK — pits sink to the bottom. Add 8 oz of water and 2 tbs of sugar to each (1/8 cup). Stir well until the sugar dissolves, add the lemon rind (I like to cut this into 3rds); stir again and add a handful of ice. This should get you to 3/4″ of the top, but if not add more water. Enjoy.

For a more-adult version, use less water and sugar, but add a shot of Cognac and a shot of Cointreau. It’s called a side-car, one of the greatest of all drinks.

Robert E. Buxbaum *82

Self Esteem Cartoon

7 Replies
Having potential makes a fine breakfast, but a lousy dinner.

Barbara Smaller cartoon, from The New Yorker.

Is funny because ……  it holds a mirror to the adulteration of adulthood: our young adults come out of college with knowledge, some skills, and lots of self-esteem, but with a lack of direction and a lack of focus in what they plan to do with their talents and education. One part of the problem is that kids enter college with no focused major or work background beyond an expectation that they will be leaders when they graduate.

In a previous post I’d suggested that Detroit schools should teach shop as a way to build responsibility. On further reflection, most schools should require shop, or similar subjects where tangible products are produced and where quality of output is apparent and directly related to the student, e.g. classical music, representative art, automotive tuning. Responsibility is not well taught through creative writing or non-representative art, as here quality is in the eye of the beholder.

My sense is that it’s not enough to teach a skill, you have to teach an aesthetic about the skill (Is this a good job), and a desire to put the skill to use. Two quotes of my own invention: “it’s not enough to teach a man how to fish, you have to teach him to actually do it, or he won’t even eat for a day.” Also, “Having potential makes a fine breakfast, but a lousy dinner” (if you use my quotes please quote me). If you don’t like these, here’s one from Peter Cooper, the founder of my undergraduate college. “The problem with Harvard and Yale is that they teach everything about doing honest business except that you are supposed to do it.”

by R.E. Buxbaum,  Sept 22, 2013; Here’s another personal relationship cartoon, and a thought about engineering job-choice.

Murder rate in Finland, Japan higher than in US

6 Replies

The murder rate in Finland and Japan is higher than in the US if suicide is considered as a type of murder. In the figure below, I’ve plotted total murder rates (homicide plus suicide) for several developed-world countries. The homicide component is in blue, with the suicide rate above it, in green. In terms of this total, the US is seen to be about average among the developed counties. Mexico has the highest homicide rate for those shown, Japan has the highest suicide rate, and Russia has this highest total murder rate shown (homicide + suicide): nearly double that of the US and Canada. In Russia and Japan, some .02% of the population commit suicide every year. The Scandinavian countries are quite similar to the US, and Japan, and Mexico are far worse. Italy, Greece and the UK are better than the US, both in terms of low suicide rate and low homicide rate.

Combined homicide and suicide rates for selected countries, 2005.


Homicide and suicide rates for selected countries, 2005 Source: Wikipedia.

In the US, pundants like Piers Morgan like to use our high murder rate as an indicator of the ills of American society: loose gun laws are to blame, they say, along with the lack of social welfare safety net, a lack of support for the arts, and a lack of education and civility in general. Japan, Canada, and Scandinavia are presented as near idyls, in these regards. When murder is considered to include suicide though, the murder-rate difference disappears. Add to this, that violent crime rates are higher in Europe, Canada, and the UK, suggesting that clean streets and education do not deter crime.

The interesting thing though is suicide, and what it suggests about happiness. According to my graphic, the happiest, safest countries appear to be Italy and Greece. Part of this is likely weather , people commit suicide more in cold countries, but another part may be that some people (malcontents?) are better served by dirty, noisy cafés and pubs where people meet and complain, and are not so well served by clean streets and civility. It’s bad enough to be a depressed outsider, but it’s really miserable if everything around you is clean, and everyone is polite but busy.

Yet another thought about the lower suicide rates in the US and Mexico, is that some of the homicide in these countries is really suicide by proxy. In the US and Mexico depressed people (particularly men) can go off to war or join gangs. They still die, but they die more heroically (they think) by homicide. They volunteer for dangerous army missions or to attack a rival drug-lord outside a bar. Either they succeed in killing someone else, or they’re shot dead. If you’re really suicidal and can’t join the army, you could move to Detroit; the average house sold for $7100 last year (it’s higher now, I think), and the homicide rate was over 56 per 100,000. As bad as that sounds, it’s half the murder rate of Greenland, assuming you take suicide to be murder.

R.E. Buxbaum, Sept 14, 2013

The Scientific Method isn’t the method of scientists

12 Replies

A linchpin of middle school and high-school education is teaching ‘the scientific method.’ This is the method, students are led to believe, that scientists use to determine Truths, facts, and laws of nature. Scientists, students are told, start with a hypothesis of how things work or should work, they then devise a set of predictions based on deductive reasoning from these hypotheses, and perform some critical experiments to test the hypothesis and determine if it is true (experimentum crucis in Latin). Sorry to say, this is a path to error, and not the method that scientists use. The real method involves a few more steps, and follows a different order and path. It instead follows the path that Sherlock Holmes uses to crack a case.

The actual method of Holmes, and of science, is to avoid beginning with a hypothesis. Isaac Newton claimed: “I never make hypotheses” Instead as best we can tell, Newton, like most scientists, first gathered as much experimental evidence on a subject as possible before trying to concoct any explanation. As Holmes says (Study in Scarlet): “It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment.”

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts (Holmes, Scandal in Bohemia).

Holmes barely tolerates those who hypothesize before they have all the data: “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” (Scandal in Bohemia).

Then there is the goal of science. It is not the goal of science to confirm some theory, model, or hypothesis; every theory probably has some limited area where it’s true. The goal for any real-life scientific investigation is the desire to explain something specific and out of the ordinary, or do something cool. Similarly, with Sherlock Holmes, the start of the investigation is the arrival of a client with a specific, unusual need – one that seems a bit outside of the normal routine. Similarly, the scientist wants to do something: build a bigger bridge, understand global warming, or how DNA directs genetics; make better gunpowder, cure a disease, or Rule the World (mad scientists favor this). Once there is a fixed goal, it is the goal that should direct the next steps: it directs the collection of data, and focuses the mind on the wide variety of types of solution. As Holmes says: , “it’s wise to make one’s self aware of the potential existence of multiple hypotheses, so that one eventually may choose one that fits most or all of the facts as they become known.” It’s only when there is no goal, that any path will do. 

In gathering experimental data (evidence), most scientists spend months in the less-fashionable sections of the library, looking at the experimental methods and observations of others, generally from many countries, collecting any scrap that seems reasonably related to the goal at hand. I used 3 x5″ cards to catalog this data and the references. From many books and articles, one extracts enough diversity of data to be able to look for patterns and to begin to apply inductive logic. “The little things are infinitely the most important” (Case of Identity). You have to look for patterns in the data you collect. Holmes does not explain how he looks for patterns, but this skill is innate in most people to a greater or lesser extent. A nice set approach to inductive logic is called the Baconian Method, it would be nice to see schools teach it. If the author is still alive, a scientist will try to contact him or her to clarify things. In every SH mystery, Holmes does the same and is always rewarded. There is always some key fact or observation that this turns up: key information unknown to the original client.

Based on the facts collected one begins to create the framework for a variety of mathematical models: mathematics is always involved, but these models should be pretty flexible. Often the result is a tree of related, mathematical models, each highlighting some different issue, process, or problem. One then may begin to prune the tree, trying to fit the known data (facts and numbers collected), into a mathematical picture of relevant parts of this tree. There usually won’t be quite enough for a full picture, but a fair amount of progress can usually be had with the application of statistics, calculus, physics, and chemistry. These are the key skills one learns in college, but usually the high-schooler and middle schooler has not learned them very well at all. If they’ve learned math and physics, they’ve not learned it in a way to apply it to something new, quite yet (it helps to read the accounts of real scientists here — e.g. The Double Helix by J. Watson).

Usually one tries to do some experiments at this stage. Homes might visit a ship or test a poison, and a scientist might go off to his, equally-smelly laboratory. The experiments done there are rarely experimenti crucae where one can say they’ve determined the truth of a single hypothesis. Rather one wants to eliminated some hypotheses and collect data to be used to evaluate others. An answer generally requires that you have both a numerical expectation and that you’ve eliminated all reasonable explanations but one. As Holmes says often, e.g. Sign of the four, “when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”. The middle part of a scientific investigation generally involves these practical experiments to prune the tree of possibilities and determine the coefficients of relevant terms in the mathematical model: the weight or capacity of a bridge of a certain design, the likely effect of CO2 on global temperature, the dose response of a drug, or the temperature and burn rate of different gunpowder mixes. Though not mentioned by Holmes, it is critically important in science to aim for observations that have numbers attached.

The destruction of false aspects and models is a very important part of any study. Francis Bacon calls this act destruction of idols of the mind, and it includes many parts: destroying commonly held presuppositions, avoiding personal preferences, avoiding the tendency to see a closer relationship than can be justified, etc.

In science, one eliminates the impossible through the use of numbers and math, generally based on your laboratory observations. When you attempt to the numbers associated with our observations to the various possible models some will take the data well, some poorly; and some twill not fit the data at all. Apply the deductive reasoning that is taught in schools: logical, Boolean, step by step; if some aspect of a model does not fit, it is likely the model is wrong. If we have shown that all men are mortal, and we are comfortable that Socrates is a man, then it is far better to conclude that Socrates is mortal than to conclude that all men but Socrates is mortal (Occam’s razor). This is the sort of reasoning that computers are really good at (better than humans, actually). It all rests on the inductive pattern searches similarities and differences — that we started with, and very often we find we are missing a piece, e.g. we still need to determine that all men are indeed mortal, or that Socrates is a man. It’s back to the lab; this is why PhDs often take 5-6 years, and not the 3-4 that one hopes for at the start.

More often than not we find we have a theory or two (or three), but not quite all the pieces in place to get to our goal (whatever that was), but at least there’s a clearer path, and often more than one. Since science is goal oriented, we’re likely to find a more efficient than we fist thought. E.g. instead of proving that all men are mortal, show it to be true of Greek men, that is for all two-legged, fairly hairless beings who speak Greek. All we must show is that few Greeks live beyond 130 years, and that Socrates is one of them.

Putting numerical values on the mathematical relationship is a critical step in all science, as is the use of models — mathematical and otherwise. The path to measure the life expectancy of Greeks will generally involve looking at a sample population. A scientist calls this a model. He will analyze this model using statistical model of average and standard deviation and will derive his or her conclusions from there. It is only now that you have a hypothesis, but it’s still based on a model. In health experiments the model is typically a sample of animals (experiments on people are often illegal and take too long). For bridge experiments one uses small wood or metal models; and for chemical experiments, one uses small samples. Numbers and ratios are the key to making these models relevant in the real world. A hypothesis of this sort, backed by numbers is publishable, and is as far as you can go when dealing with the past (e.g. why Germany lost WW2, or why the dinosaurs died off) but the gold-standard of science is predictability.  Thus, while we a confident that Socrates is definitely mortal, we’re not 100% certain that global warming is real — in fact, it seems to have stopped though CO2 levels are rising. To be 100% sure you’re right about global warming we have to make predictions, e.g. that the temperature will have risen 7 degrees in the last 14 years (it has not), or Al Gore’s prediction that the sea will rise 8 meters by 2106 (this seems unlikely at the current time). This is not to blame the scientists whose predictions don’t pan out, “We balance probabilities and choose the most likely. It is the scientific use of the imagination” (Hound of the Baskervilles). The hope is that everything matches; but sometimes we must look for an alternative; that’s happened rarely in my research, but it’s happened.

You are now at the conclusion of the scientific process. In fiction, this is where the criminal is led away in chains (or not, as with “The Woman,” “The Adventure of the Yellow Face,” or of “The Blue Carbuncle” where Holmes lets the criminal free — “It’s Christmas”). For most research the conclusion includes writing a good research paper “Nothing clears up a case so much as stating it to another person”(Memoirs). For a PhD, this is followed by the search for a good job. For a commercial researcher, it’s a new product or product improvement. For the mad scientist, that conclusion is the goal: taking over the world and enslaving the population (or not; typically the scientist is thwarted by some detail!). But for the professor or professional research scientist, the goal is never quite reached; it’s a stepping stone to a grant application to do further work, and from there to tenure. In the case of the Socrates mortality work, the scientist might ask for money to go from country to country, measuring life-spans to demonstrate that all philosophers are mortal. This isn’t as pointless and self-serving as it seems, Follow-up work is easier than the first work since you’ve already got half of it done, and you sometimes find something interesting, e.g. about diet and life-span, or diseases, etc. I did some 70 papers when I was a professor, some on diet and lifespan.

One should avoid making some horrible bad logical conclusion at the end, by the way. It always seems to happen that the mad scientist is thwarted at the end; the greatest criminal masterminds are tripped by some last-minute flaw. Similarly the scientist must not make that last-mistep. “One should always look for a possible alternative, and provide against it” (Adventure of Black Peter). Just because you’ve demonstrated that  iodine kills germs, and you know that germs cause disease, please don’t conclude that drinking iodine will cure your disease. That’s the sort of science mistakes that were common in the middle ages, and show up far too often today. In the last steps, as in the first, follow the inductive and quantitative methods of Paracelsus to the end: look for numbers, (not a Holmes quote) check how quantity and location affects things. In the case of antiseptics, Paracelsus noticed that only external cleaning helped and that the help was dose sensitive.

As an example in the 20th century, don’t just conclude that, because bullets kill, removing the bullets is a good idea. It is likely that the trauma and infection of removing the bullet is what killed Lincoln, Garfield, and McKinley. Theodore Roosevelt was shot too, but decided to leave his bullet where it was, noticing that many shot animals and soldiers lived for years with bullets in them; and Roosevelt lived for 8 more years. Don’t make these last-minute missteps: though it’s logical to think that removing guns will reduce crime, the evidence does not support that. Don’t let a leap of bad deduction at the end ruin a line of good science. “A few flies make the ointment rancid,” said Solomon. Here’s how to do statistics on data that’s taken randomly.

Dr. Robert E. Buxbaum, scientist and Holmes fan wrote this, Sept 2, 2013. My thanks to Lou Manzione, a friend from college and grad school, who suggested I reread all of Holmes early in my PhD work, and to Wikiquote, a wonderful site where I found the Holmes quotes; the Solomon quote I knew, and the others I made up.

Mechanical Engineer v Civil Engineer Joke

10 Replies

What’s the difference between a mechanical engineer and a civil engineer?

 

 

Mechanical engineers make weapons; civil engineers make targets.

 

 

Is funny because ….. it’s sort of true. Much of engineering is war-related, and always was. In earlier times, an engineer was someone who made engines of war: catapults, battering rams, and the like. Nowadays, mechanical engineers are the main designers for tanks, cannons, and ships. A civil engineer is one whose projects have civilian applications. But as these projects have military uses (roads, ports, offices, and bridges, for example), civilian projects are major targets for an opposing army.

An observation about war and peace: if you are really at making peacetime products, you’re a hero in your country and outside; if you design weapons, you are vilified by the enemy and likely to become a prisoner in your own land. Consider the designers of the atom bomb in the US, Russia, Israel, India, or Iran. They can’t go abroad, and are likely suspect at home. The leaders have to worry that these scientists will give the same weapons to their enemies (it’s happened) or that they will not be dedicated enough to make the next iteration of the weapon (ditto).

My advice: specialize items for peacetime or civilian use if you can. Those who make better cars, music, art or architecture are welcome everywhere; advances in death usually rebound on the inventor. Here’s a joke comparing chemists and chemical engineers, a piece on a favorite car engine advance, on perfect tuning of musical instruments, an architecture joke, and a control engineer joke. People like civil engineers.

What sort of guy does a king keep locked in the castle dungeon — not the common thief.  #wordstothewise.

R. E. Buxbaum, August 1, 2013. I’m a chemical engineer, who makes hydrogen stuff and consults, mostly for peace-time use.

Control engineer joke

6 Replies

What made the control engineer go crazy?

 

He got positive feedback.

Is funny because …… it’s a double entente, where both meanings are true: (1) control engineers very rarely get compliments (positive feedback); the aim of control is perfection, something that’s unachievable for a dynamic system (and generally similar to near perfection: the slope at a maximum is zero). Also (2) systems go unstable if the control feedback is positive. This can happen if the controller was set backwards, but more usually happens when the response is too fast or too extreme. Positive feedback pushes a system further to error and the process either blows up, or (more commonly) goes wildly chaotic, oscillating between two or more “strange attractor” states.

It seems to me that hypnosis, control-freak love, and cult behaviors are the result of intentionally produced positive feedback. Palsies, economic cycles, and global warming are more likely the result of unintentional positive feedback. In each case, the behavior is oscillatory chaotic.

The normal state of Engineering is lack of feedback. Perhaps this is good because messed up feedback leads to worse results. From xykd.

Our brains give little reliable feedback on how well they work, but that may be better than strong, immediate feedback, as that could lead to bipolar instability. From xkcd. For more on this idea, see Science and Sanity, by Alfred Korzbski (mini youtube)

Control engineers tend to be male (85%), married (80%), happy people (at least they claim to be happy). Perhaps they know that near-perfection is close enough for a complex system in a dynamic world, or that one is about as happy as believes ones-self to be. It also helps that control engineer salaries are about $95,000/ year with excellent benefits and low employment turnover.

Here’s a chemical engineer joke I made up, and an older engineering joke. If you like, I’ll be happy to consult with you on the behavior of your processes.

By Dr. Robert E. Buxbaum, July 4, 2013

Surrealism Jokes

What is it that is red and white, polka-dotted, filled with moisture, and hangs from trees in the winter?

 

Unity

 

Is funny because …… it’s more true than truth. Whatever claims to be unity must include the red and white, polka-dotted, moist items that hang from trees. Otherwise it wouldn’t be unity. Surrealism jokes should not be confused with Zen Jokes. Eg this. and that.  As a practical matter, you can tell surrealists from Buddhists because surrealists are drunks and have hair. And you know why Dali wore a mustache?

 

To pass unobserved

Dali's mustache without dali; notice how the mustache obscures the man.

Dali’s mustache without Dali, from Dali’s Mustache, the only book (to my knowledge) about a part of an artist. There are many books about Picasso, for example, but none about his left foot.

See how it’s true. The mustache takes the place of the man, standing in for him, or here the lack of him. Surrealism sees the absurd dream realism that is beyond the surd. “If you act the genius you will be one.” See? It even speaks for him, when needed.

Dali and his mustache agree, they love art for art's sake.

Dali and his mustache agree, they love art for art’s sake.

So how many surrealists does it take to screw in a lightbulb?  The fish.

by R. E. Buxbaum, June 14, 2013