Category Archives: politics

Sleepwalking into WWI, and WWIII

Leave a reply

A remarkable book by Christopher Clark on WWI posits that WWI was an accident, entered into, by sleepwalk. That is, it was not brought on by the elaborate plan of an evil aggressor, Germany or Britain, acting for dominance or economic gain, but rather that many individuals precipitated the deadly conflict through a series of ever-more dangerous, unplanned steps. The great diplomats went on vacation following the June 28, 1914 assassination, and each minor actor felt a need to push for a previous status quo, emboldened by the certainty that nothing bad would happen, since none of the last acts had caused any serious harm, at least not to them. There was, in Clark’s view, a general numbness caused by earlier wars: in China and Russia, in Serbia and Albania, and by Italy’s invasion of Africa, and the fact that there had not been a major, deadly conflict since the Crimean war. In this environment, one nation shoving another was seen as normal conflict until a war broke out that killed millions and toppled four empires: the Russian, Austrian, German, and Ottoman.

Princip shoots Count Ferdinand, June 28, 914. Getty Immage.

Clark points out, too that the Serbs, the folks who started the war, benefited from it. They escaped from imperial control by Austria and from The Ottoman Empire. Self determination was the motivation for the assassination, and it worked too, for the Czechs, Croats, Poles, and communists. In just a few years, the former group got their own countries, and the communists took Russia, something that no one saw coming in June, 1914.

The key sleep-walk steps to war were as follows: In response to the assassination, and a decade of earlier insults, Austria-Hungary, demanded harsh cocessions from Serbia that Serbia found unacceptable. Austria Hungary, backed by Germany and Italy, declared war on Serbia. Russia then mobilized its troops for war with Germany, so Germany declared war on Russia. France, an ally of Russia, then mobilized for war with Germany, so on August 2 – 3, Germany declared war on France and invaded Luxembourg and Belgium. Why Luxembourg and Belgium — because they would not allow free transport of German troupes to attack France. This forced Great Britain to declare war on Germany, which, finally, on August 6, brought Austria-Hungary to declared war on Russia, and effectively on the rest of the Allies. Over the next few years, we (the US) were dragged in along with Japan, on our side.

What a mess, but I fear we may be sleepwalking to the same, grim altercation via our wars in Ukraine and Syria. As at the beginning of WWI, there are two big power alliances: NATO including The US and most of Europe, versus a BRICS alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, Iran, China, and South Africa, along with a few minor others. The alliances are now three years into a proxy war in Ukraine, and another one in Syria. So far the declared combatants are Russia vs Ukraine, and Turkey vs Syria, but both sides keeps harassing the other at a higher and higher pace. So far, the sleep-walk steps were that Russia invaded Crimea, in response to some insult, and then attempted to take Kiev. The NATO alliance responded provided limited weapons to Ukraine. But, as these proved insufficient, we (NATO) provided greater and more deadly weapons, plus some volunteer troops. Meanwhile Russia’s BRICS allies are selling drones and missiles into the conflict in return for Russian gold, wheat, and raw materials. One of us, perhaps Ukraine, then cut the RussianGerman gas pipeline, while China seems to have cut important communications cables in the Baltic Sea.

North Korea began sending troops, 12,000 apparently, to fight on the Russian side, while Biden has sent long-range missiles to be used for strikes deep into Russian territory, on logistic centers, train depots, food stores, airports, etc. Putin has threatened a nuclear response, but has done nothing so far beyond sending a few long range, hypersonic missiles against civilian targets and against Ukraine’s power grid. He’s lost some 600,000 Russians, and has lost control of Syria and Armenia, so he has reason to be upset. Ukraine has lost some 400,000, and is still losing territory, but is still demanding total victory, the removal of all Russian forces, including those in Crimea.

The fight has spread to Syria, where the US, Israel, and Turkey have bombed in recent days, something I would call an act of offensive war against a sovereign unstable government. It’s not totally unprevoked, of course. Syria and Iran had been attacking Israel for years from Lebanon, by way of Hezbollah jihadists. Recently Israel took out a major fraction of Hezbollah, and the jihadists (Sunni) seems to have gone back to Syria, and have removed Assad, Syria’s Shia president for life, with help from Turkey, another Sunni Moslem country. This too is an act of war. Assad retains a sliver on the coast where the Russian bases are, the red areas in the map below, but he isn’t popular with anyone at the moment. The rebel leader, Abu Mohammed al Jolani, was a member of Al Quada till 2006, and then member of ISIS (ISIL) under Abu Baghdadi till 2016 at least. He’s still on our terrorist list, though he now claims to be a progressive Moslem. Not everyone is convinced, or happy with him. Syria is divided into seven (or more) control zones, shown on the map below. He could bring peace to Syria, but his path to peace is clearly further war.

On the legal and PR front, we’ve called Russian president Putin a madman and war criminal, we support Turkey’s efforts to overthrow Assad, but complain about his attacks on the Kurds, the yellow areas, and dark green at right, and we both applaud and condemn Israeli President Netanyahu for attacking Syria in the south, and in the red sliver, destroying Syria’s navy. Meanwhile, we (the US) have taken it upon ourselves to attack ISIS (ISIL) camps in central Syria, the grey areas, as well as attacking troops (Iranian Shia) entering from Iraq. By normal definition, this would put us at war with Syria, and perhaps with Turkey since we support the Kurds in their war against Turks.

Recently we’ve decided that the rebel leader, al Jolani, might be taken off the terrorist list subject to a few conditions (I wonder which). We (Biden, Shumer) along with the International Criminal Court have called for the arrest and imprisonment of Israel’s PM Netanyahu. The Turks too have join in on this, while somewhat cheering Israel’s destruction of Assad’s navy. The Druze, allies of Israel (and us?) seem to be at war with al Jolani, and likely the Turks and Iran. They’re in south-east Syria, near Deraa, not shown by a color on the map. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to make peace with al Jolani, to secure their military bases, while Iran (Shia) has reached out to al Jolani (Sunni) in an effort to join with him in a war against Israel. It’s not quite tipped into world war, but it seems awfully close.

One possible peace maker might be the incoming US president, Trump, but the outgoing president, Biden, has done his best to tie his hands, branding him as a felon and seditionist, as well as claiming he’s a Russian asset. European leaders don’t like him either. France’s Macron might a peacemaker, but Macron’s government has fallen. The Germans or Turks might be peacemakers, but the government of Germany has nearly fallen, the economy of Germany is hurting, and Turkey is a combatant, at war with the Kurds and Druze. Iran, and Russia, though not combatants, are directly involved in the fighting, and both countries are under sanction by the US and EU, and the UN is discredited from it’s years helping Hezbolla. I thus see no clear path to peace and no peacemaker who will dial back the drama before we sleep-march into WWIII.

Robert Buxbaum, December 11, 2024

This is not the most important election, 1860 was

Leave a reply

Every year we hear the same claim: that this the most important election of America’s history. This year is among the more contentious than most, but the issues dividing the candidates are few. Both, for example, claim they will protect the border and spur the economy. In lieu of issues, there’s name calling. Trump claims Harris is as incompetent buffoon and Harris claims Trump is a fascist dictator. The rancor practically guarantees as they’ll be riots whoever wins but, as these things go, the election is less important, and divisive than ’64 and ’68, and in particular, the election of 1860.

Following the 1860 election, election seven states ceded from the union and we had a Civil War. Even the most bleak prediction for 2024-25 is for a more peaceful transfer of power. The election of 1860 had two major issues on the ballot; one was slavery or rather the expansion of slavery to the territories, and the other was implementation of the Morrill tariffs. These import taxes, proposed by Justin Morrill and passed but not yet implemented, would have raised the average agricultural duty from 15% to to 47%. Duties on durable goods wool rise to 65%, with the burden falling disproportionately on the southern states. Duties on durable goods. There was also a price schedule that would have prevented British shippers from minimizing the effect by falsely claiming a price far below market, something China currently does. In September 1860, Republican Leader Thaddeus Stevens told a New York City audience that “the Tariff would impoverish the southern and western states, but that was essential for advancing national greatness and the prosperity of industrial workers.”

Matching the two sides to the two major issues of the day, there were four major candidates for president in 1860. All of them won states. Lincoln carried the greatest number, 18, and won the most electoral votes, 180. He was for high tariffs and against the expansion of slavery. Second was John Breckinridge, the Southern Democrat, who carried 11 states and got 72 electoral votes. He was for the expansion of slavery and against the higher tariffs. Then there was Stephen Douglas, the Northern Democrat, who was for allowing the expansion of slavery, considering it a “states right,” and also for the higher tariffs. Douglas carried only one state, Missouri, with 12 electoral votes. Finally, there was John Bell, the Constitutional Union candidate, who carried three states, Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky, representing 39 electoral votes. He opposed the expansion of slavery and also the increased tariff, but he generally believed that compromise was always possible. This was the worst vote split in US history. The worst split I’ve seen was 1968, when three candidates carried states.

Had either Bell or Douglas won, I suspect that the Civil War could have been avoided, at least temporarily. Virginia, the most important of the slave states, had shown it was willing to accept an anti-slavery president so long as he did not impose high tariffs — tariffs that benefitted the northern industrial workers and manufacturers at the expense of southern consumers and agricultural producers. Lincoln’s victory precipitated the immediate secession of 3 states. Another 4 seceded after inauguration.

The south imagined they could walk away because that’s how they read the constitution before the 13th amendment. They imagined they could win a civil war because they imagined they had British military support. “Cotton was king,” they claimed. The UK prime minister, Lord Palmerston, had told secretary Adams, “We do not like slavery, but we want cotton, and we dislike very much your Morrill tariff.” As it was, the British stayed on the sidelines, in part because of diplomacy. Besides, the gunship Monitor showed that the North could sink most any British ship that entered US waters.

As for 2024, I expect there will be riots whoever wins, but nothing more. The parties are realigning significantly, as happened in 1964-68, and neither side much understands the appeal of the other. This seems like less of a wrenching election than in 1964 and 1968, though. In ’64-’68 US boys were dying in Vietnam in numbers, and black folks and their white friends were being lynched in the south. Nothing like that is happening today. Today’s riots have been fueled by nothing more than name-calling, fear, and the occasional assassination attempt. Mild, even compared to 1968.

Robert Buxbaum, November 4, 2024. Justin Morrill is mostly remembered today for the Land-grant college act of 1862. This created an agricultural -technical college in each state. I taught at Michigan State University, Michigan’s land grant university. I’m generally a fan of tariffs, both as an aid to the domestic economy and as a tool of foreign policy. I present these views here. I got these views from Peter Cooper.

China’s space station and the ISS, a comparison

Leave a reply

It gets so little notice from the news agencies that many will be surprised to find that China has a space station. It’s known alternately as the Tiangong Space Station or the CSS, Chinese Space Station; it’s smaller than the International Space Station, ISS, but it’s not small. Here is a visual and data comparison, both from Wikipedia.

China’s space station is smaller than the ISS, but just about as capable. Cooperation leads to messiness (and peace?)

The ISS has far more solar panels, but the power input is similar because the CSS panels are of higher efficiency. As shown in the table below, the mass of the ISS is about 4.5 times that of CSS but the habitable volume is only 3 times greater than of CSS, and the claimed crew size is similar, of 3 to 6 compared to 7. The CSS is less messy, less noisy, with less mass, and more energy efficiency. Part of the efficiency comes from that the CSS uses ion propulsion thrusters to keep the station in orbit, while the ISS uses chemical rockets. The CSS thus seems better, on paper. To some extent that’s because it’s more modern.

Another reason that the ISS is more messy is that it’s a collaboration. A major part of its mission is to develop peaceful cooperation between the US, Europe and Russia. It’s been fairly successful at this, especially in the first two decades, and part of making sure parts from The US, Russia, Europe, Japan, and Canada all work together is that many different standards must be tolerated and connected. The ISS tolerates different space suits, different capsules, different connections, and different voltages. The result is researchers communicate, and work together on science, sending joint messages of peace to the folks on earth. Peace is an intended product.

By contrast, the Chinese space station is solely Chinese. There are no interconnection issues, but also no peace dividend. It has a partially military purpose too, including operation of killer satellites, and some degree of data mining. This was banned for ISS. So far the CSS has hosted Chinese astronauts. No Chinese astronauts have visited the ISS, either.

Long march 6A rocket set to supply the CSS. It is very similar to the Delta IV.

India was asked to join the ISS, but has declined, wishing to follow China’s path of space independence. The Indian Space Research Organization plans to launch a small space station on its own, Gaganyaan, in 2025, and after that, a larger version. That’s a shame, though it’s not clear how long cooperation will continue on the ISS, either. See the movie I.S.S. (2023) for how this might play out. Currently, there is a tradition of cooperation about ISS, and it’s held despite the War in Ukraine. The various nations manage to work together in space and on the ground, launching people and materials to the ISS, and working together reliability.

Although it isn’t a direct part of the space stations, I should mention the troubles of the Boeing Star-liner capsule that took two astronauts to the ISS compared to the apparently flawless record of the CSS. The fact is, I’m not bothered by failures, so long as we learn from them. I suspect Boeing will learn, and suspect that this and other flailing projects would be in worse shape without the ISS. Besides, the ISS has been a major catalyst in the development of SpaceX, a US success story that China seems intent on trying to copy. SpaceX was originally funded, at low level, to serve as a backup to Boeing, but managed to bypass them. They now provide cheaper, more reliable travel through use of reusable boosters. The program supplying CSS uses traditional, disposable rockets, the Long March 5 and 6 and 7. These resemble the Atlas V, Delta IV and Delta IV Heavy. They appear to be reliable, but I suspect they are costly too. China is currently developing a series of reusable rocket systems. The Long March 9, for example will have the same lift capacity as SapceX’s Starship, we’re told. Will the Indian program choose this rocket to lift their space station, or will they choose SpaceX, or something else? The advantages of a reusable product mostly show up when you get to reuse it, IMHO.

Robert Buxbaum, September 10, 2024.

We’re depressed, allergic, overweight, alone, and demented. What causes what?

Leave a reply

Among the wonders of the western world is how many people are allergic to nuts compared to a few decades ago, and to gluten, and to a host of other things that hardly anyone was allergic to 50 years ago. Perhaps it’s a change in perception, but it doesn’t seem that way.

When I was in public school in NY, back in the 1960s, there was a subsidized lunch program serving, every day, peanut butter sandwiches. Peanut butter is nearly totally fat. It was ladled each day, from a giant tub, provided by the USDA, and slathered on USDA bread along with jelly from some other vat. The smell filled the lunch area, and the fats and sugars filled our stomaches. No one seemed bothered by the nuts, and no one showed obvious signs of passing out. And despite the ill diet, we were less obeease than today. Even today, in poor countries, thy still serve massive peanut butter dishes, or bread covered in lard, and these countries show fewer allergy problems, and less obesity in general.

Perhaps it is the lack of exposure to peanuts in the US that caused the allergy (sounds almost plausible), and maybe it’s the dietetic food that causes obesity, and the glut of non-gluten that causes gluten allergies. These connections may be false, but If true, it would suggest we’re in for many more problems.

Moving to depression and dementia. We’re seeing more and more of both, and at earlier ages. In our era, virtually everyone over 80 shows signs of clinical dementia, often Alzheimer’s dementia, but the rates are rising, especially in those 55-70, and it seems most every adult is depressed. I don’t know why, though lots of people on the internet have speculative explanations. There are also cures, and perhaps some work. The research behind at least one of the best hopes for an Alzheimers cure was shown to be falsified, just made up. Not that funding was stopped quite, highlighting another problem that is becoming more common: people in trust positions no longer behave in a trustworthy way. Nor are they punished for lying. Strange to add that an anti-obesity drug, Metformin, seems to actually work at weight loss, and helps against Alzheimers dementia. Then again, from other research, it seems that obesity protects from dementia.

Some of the problem seems to be societal, a lack of friendship and companionship. I could imagine that isolation leads to dementia, depression, and weight gain. Another thought, pushed by RFK Jr., is that new drugs and vaccines are responsible for allergies and ADHD, along with changes in diet. It’s possible. At least some comes from early diagnosis, and a change in the definition of dementia. Perhaps that’s the reason for the significant difference state to state. Yesterday’s curmudgeon is redefined as depressed, and drugged (more in some states than others), and becomes isolated (again more in some communities). The disoriented, lonely patient is then given anti anxiety drugs and classified as a dementia patient. It happens in some cases, but there seems to be a rise in real dementia too: the sort of stumbling and blankness that reflects general brain deterioration. As for ADHD, I’m still not convinced this is a new real disease; it could be that’s how boys always behaved.

Would we be less depressed or demented or less autistic with different vaccinations, or different foods, or with more human interaction? Would people be less isolated if they were less depressed or autistic? RFK’s family now claims that RFK Jr is demented himself for even asking these questions. My guess, totally unsupported is that the rise in allergies, dementia, obesity, and depression are related somehow, but I’m not convinced that RFK Jr. has picked out the right connection. What causes what? Perhaps someone can use statistics, or biology experiments to help untangle this stuff. It seems horribly important to the majority of Americans.

Robert Buxbaum, Sept 10, 2024. There was a. bit of a joke in the last comments: my daughter got a degree in epidemiology, and is employed in part to answer just the sort of questions I’ve posed.

Fewer serial killers, more mass shootings, blame unfriendliness not lax gun laws

Leave a reply

It’s hard to notice the lack of something, but there’s been a sharp drop-off in the the number of serial killers. Nearly gone are folks like John Wayne Gacy (the clown killer), Jeffrey Dahmer (severed heads, cannibalism, necrophilia), Gary Ridgway, “The Green River Killer” (71 prostitutes killed). Mostly, they were sexual sadists, men who’d have sex with strangers (able or female) and then kill them. In 1987, there were 198 active in the US and many more inactive; by 2018 it was down to 12. And these few are less-prolific, and less-colorful, like Anthony Robinson, “the shopping cart killer”, who killed 4-6 in DC, transporting the bodies in shopping carts.

It’s not clear why there are so few these days. Perhaps it’s the prevalence of surveillance cameras, or improvements in DNA and other pic technology. But these explanations don’t explain why there were so few before 1960. There were some mass murderers, “Jack the Ripper,” “the Boston Strangler” but few before 1960.

Police like to credit the drop off to their detective skills, but there are still plenty of violent crimes that go unsolved, about half the murders in Detroit for example, or most of the rapes in Europe. I suspect that serial killing spiked up in the 60s because of a spike in friendliness, and spiked down in the 2000s because it ended. Before the hippy era, people were cautious of gangsters, rapists, homosexuals, and spies under the bed. But that changed in the 60s. Folks thought it was cool to hitchhike, or pick up random guys. Now, we’re back to being cautious.

A personal story: I was visiting Toronto in the late 1980s and someone I didn’t know overheard that I was planning to drive back to Detroit that afternoon. He asked if I would not mind driving his teenaged daughters to Detroit to see their grandmother, and I said “yes.” At the border, the guards asked who these girls were, and I said I didn’t know. I hadn’t asked. The border guards let us through without passports after a call to the grandmother. I would not be as ready to offer a ride today, and the parents would not be as trusting, nor would the guards.

Serial killings are down since 1990, but mass shootings are up.

Despite much the stricter gun laws, there’s been a rise in crime and a steady growth in the number of murderers in our major cities. There’s also been a rise in synagogue attacks, and a rise in mass murders. These folks kill many in one day or as part of gang-drug activity. Stricter gun laws seem to have made things worse, not better. They do not stop the killers and they hamper the defenders. I took a look at synagogue attacks, and find a pistol would have helped.

On a societal level, I think it would help to have fewer illegal aliens, or aliens who enter with no positive record or skills. It would help to have psychological treatment and lockup for crazy folks and prisoners. Currently, we send violent crazy folks out on the streets until they do something true horrific. More consistent prison sentences are needed for criminals too. We’ now’ve come to use the courts for political theater: Biden’s son should not go to jail for years because he lied on a gun purchase, nor should Trump get for putting down a prostitute as “legal fees”. Nor is his half-billion dollar fine appropriate. Minor crime deserves minor punishment. As a result of our crazy courts, violent criminals are let go as with the MSU killings near me. He was a crazy violent black man, and there was no way, in the law to give him a short sentence, or counseling, or job training. When our incarcerated leave prison, they have anger, plus no jobs or skills. Don’t be surprised when these folks turn to violent crime.

Robert Buxbaum, June 23, 2024

Germany’s hydrogen trains and boats almost make sense

1 Reply

Germany’s green transition is a disaster. Twenty years ago, Germany had 23 nuclear power plants that generated 30% of the country’s electricity cleanly, cheaply, and reliably. These plants have all been shut by the government as part of a commitment to clean energy. What could be cleaner? Germany has switched to a mix of wind and solar, plus a significant shift to coal power. Wind and solar use a lot of land compared to nuclear, and they break down leaving fields of debris. There is now a lack of electricity to power homes and industries, and what power there is, is unreliable, due to the many dark windless days in Germany.

The lack of reliable electricity is crippling German industry now that Russian gas has been cut off. In this environment, why would the Germans order special trains and boats that burn, hydrogen that’s made from electricity and natural gas? My understanding of the reason is that, Germany sometimes has too much wind power and nothing to do with it. They plan to store this excess by making hydrogen that they can use to power their trains and boats. The cost is high, and the efficiency is poor, but the electricity is free.

Hydrogen is not as compact a fuel as gasoline, nor is it as cheap as electricity, but it’s cleaner than gas, and in some ways it’s better than battery-stored electricity. While hydrogen takes a lot of storage space relative to gasoline, high pressure helps, and the storage is cheaper than with batteries. Also, hydrogen fuel is transferred faster than electric fuels. Trains and ships are chosen for hydrogen because they are good at carrying bulky items. The transition to hydrogen is relatively straightforward with trains, since many are already powered by electricity. Hydrogen fuel cells can make the electricity on board (in theory), while avoiding the need for expensive overhead wires. The idea sort-of makes sense.

Germany’s first hydrogen train. cancelled after 1 year of poor operating.

The first German train to use hydrogen powered them with fuel cells that generated electricity. It began service in October 2022, but the fuel cells proved unreliable. Service ended one year later, October 2023, replaced by polluting diesel (see here). The Hannover line plans to replace these with battery-powered trains over the next few years. There are also plans for a hydrogen-powered ferry, but it is not clear why the ferry should prove more reliable than the train, or cheaper.

San Francisco’s hydrogen-powered ferry, $30 million, 15 knots top speed, 75 passengers, no cars. Long delayed.

In the US, the Biden administration has paid, so far, $30 million for a hydrogen ferry in San Francisco. It’s two years behind schedule and over cost, taking only 75 passengers and no cars at 15 knots, 17mph. In the US, and likely in Germany, most of the hydrogen will be made from natural gas. A better solution, I think would be to power the ferris and trains by natural gas and to store the excess electricity in land-based batteries or as land-based hydrogen for land-based fuel cells.

Germany is committed to electric trains, though, and hydrogen provides a route to power these trains with excess electricity. German customers take the train, in part, because they like them, and in part because German politicians have banned short-hop planes on competing routes, and subsidized electric trains. Yet another option to balance times of excess solar and wind power would be to subsidize electric cars, or at least allow theirs owners to trade electricity: to buy electricity when it’s cheap and resell it to the grid when demand and prices are high.

Robert Buxbaum, June 8, 2024

Veteran owned business startup ideas

Leave a reply
Someone has to repair airplanes, why not you?

I started my own business, rebresearch. It puts food on my table, and provides satisfaction that I’m helping people. It seems to me that other folks, particularly veterans, could benefit from owning their own businesses. Veterans seem to possess more of the skills for successful business startup than found the general population, and I notice that veterans start businesses more than most folk do, too.

Some 50% of returning veterans from WWII started their own businesses, I’ve read, and some were very successful. Walmart, the world’s largest retail company, for example, was founded by WWII Army intelligence officer Sam Walton. Then there’s FedEx, founded by Fred Smith, a Marine Corps Veteran of Vietnam, two tours, where he earned two Purple Hearts, a Bronze Star, and Silver Star.

Both of the above are in supply/ logistics, but veterans also open real estate shops, coffee shops, construction… Their success rate is higher than non-veterans perhaps due to skills they may not appreciate: physical stamina, organization, discipline, and the ability to “get the job done.” Having a successful business requires that you either show up every day at 6:30, or 7:30 — and to have a trusted replacement ready if you can’t. Many folks in the population don’t seem to understand the need to show up. This Is not to say that starting a successful business is easy, even if you show up and know what you’re doing, but reliability and hard work go a long way. Besides, many veterans have specific skills that transfer directly. See below, some business ideas with links to veteran-started companies in each area.

Aerospace and Defense
Aerospace and Defense Contracting (85) Aerospace and Defense Consulting (81) Aerospace and Defense Parts Distributors (43)		Agriculture and Forestry
Farms (101) Land Surveying and Mapping (46) Animal Control Services (30)
Arts and Entertainment
Photography Services (311) Artists and Art Related(138) Production Studios (126)		Automotive
Auto Repair Services (214) Auto Glass and Windshield Replacement (110) Auto Windshield Repair (90)
Business Services
Consulting Services (403) Franchises (281)Information Technology (222)		Commercial Contracting
Commercial General Contractors (366) Commercial Renovation, Maintenance and Repair Services (291)Commercial Cleaning Services (252)
Construction
Construction Management Services (274) Plumbing Services (109) Custom Home Builders (101)		Education and Training
Firearms Training and Instruction (243) Leadership Training Programs (86) Martial Arts Training (83)
Employment Services
Staffing (163) Recruiting Firms (99) Human Resources Consulting (73)		Energy and Utilities
Solar Energy (92) Energy Consulting Services (73) Green Energy (63)
Engineering Services
Civil Engineering (85) Architectural Engineering Services (80) Land Surveying and Mapping Services(52)		Environmental Services
Environmental Consulting Services (73) Recycling Services(37) Environmental Engineering Services (35)
Financial Services
Financial Advisors (170) Tax Preparation Services(155) Bookkeeping Services (150)		Food and Drink
Restaurants and Dining (191) Catering (137) Commercial Sales and Delivery (114)
Government
Government Consulting (95) Government Contract Consulting (75) Government Procurement Services(38)		Health, Medical and Dental
Exercise and Rehabilitation Services (199) Wellness Programs (181) Medical Equipment and Parts (143)
Insurance Services
Insurance Agencies (174) Life Insurance (160) Auto Insurance (117)		Internet Services
Web Design (420) Search Engine Optimization (SEO) (220)Web Development (172)
Legal Services
Law Firms (261) Legal Notary Services (136) Process Server Services (94)		Lodging and Travel
Travel Services (86) Vacations and Getaways (56) Vacation Cruises (49)
Manufacturing
Wood Products Manufacturing (120) Machine Shops(115) Fabrication (108)		Marketing and Sales
Marketing Services (207) Advertising Services (120) Public Relations (PR) (43)
Nonprofit and Free Help
Veterans Service Offices (VSO) (699) Veterans Services (685) Chamber of Commerce (399)		Publishing and Printing
Printing Services (209) Graphic Design Services (113)Embroidery Services (95)
Real Estate Services
Home Inspection Companies (507) Real Estate Agents (Independent) (430) Real Estate Agencies (313)		Residential Services
Residential Construction, Repair and Improvements (919)Residential Cleaning Services (405) Residential Landscape Services (335)
Security and Safety
Security Services (234) Surveillance and Alarm Systems (205) Investigations (191)		Stores and Dealers
Clothing, Shoe Stores and Accessories (357) Online Stores(336) Food and Drink Stores (291)
Technology
Information Technology Services (521) Technology Support Services (173) Telecommunications (160)		Transportation Services
Transportation Logistics Services (214) Trucking and Transportation Companies (193) Trash and Junk Haulers(180)
veteran-owned business directory copied from https://www.veteranownedbusiness.com.

One advantage of stating a business over working for others is that you are guaranteed to get hired. And you can hire your wife, etc. Also, there’s a bigger up-side than working for others. There are tax benefits too — your car and computer can be bought with pre-tax dollars assuming you use them in the business. These are not insignificant benefits — usually your tax bracket is higher than your profit margin. You generally have to work more hours per day as an entrepreneur, but if you like the work and have the skills that might not be too bad.

Perhaps you learned cybersecurity

Veterans often have credentials and skills that are rare in the country at large, and this can set you up for a good job. A high security clearance, for example– it’s necessary for many jobs in security –or skills in airplane repair, fire-arms, martial arts, shipping, recruiting, food service, communications, security, commissary… If these areas appeal to you, you can get extra training, either while still in the military or outside, and the gov’t will often pay for it. If you’re already out, think of using your VA benefits to go to school. You’ll want to fill in gaps, too, like in accounting. Good luck.

Robert Buxbaum May 14, 2024

Why did the UK reject Trump’s trade deals?

Leave a reply

When the UK left the EU, they gained some economic freedom, but lost easy access to their largest trade partner. They avoided having to follow the weird green policies of the EU, and no longer had to take low cost workers from Poland, Bulgaria, Tec, but having lost easy access to European trade, the assumption was that they would want a trade deal soon, with someone, and the likely someone was the USA.

At first things went pretty well. there was the predicted crash didn’t come, showing that the top economists were talking out their hats, or trying to scare people to stay in the EU. And then Trump proposed the first of four attempts at a trade deal, and things got ugly. All four attempts were rejected in a most-forceful and insulting way.

When Trumps first forays at a trade deal were rejected, he attempt a visit in the summer of 2017. The British Parliament forbidding the visit, accepting it only by a slim majority with the PM, May making no strong case. The mayor of London protested with a blimp of Trump as a big baby, and the Queen was not sure she had time for tea (she had time for Obama). Trump cancelled the visit, and May made deals with Norway, Switzerland, Israel, Palestine, and Iceland. Why these but not the US?

Over the next two years Trump made trade deals with Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Korea, trying The UK again in July, 2019. This time, Theresa May was more welcoming — she was facing an election — but the blimp was brought out again, and allowed to follow Trump around England, along with a statue of Trump on the toilet, tweeting, and making fart sounds while saying “witch hunt,” “no collusion*”, and other comic comments. All rather insulting, and deal with the UK was signed.

I suspect Trump’s offers to the UK were similar to those with Japan, and Japan seemed very happy with the deal (Biden offered them an exit from Trump’s, and Abe stayed — and proposed Trump for the Nobel Prize. So why the British antagonism? Even if they had to say no, why didn’t they arrange a location or treatment to say no politely. India said no to Trump’s trade deal, politely, in 2020, and to the UK too.

My theory is that Theresa May was taken by the anti-Trump propaganda of Europe and particularly of the German press (see magazine covers of the time). Germany was the leader of Europe (this status has diminished), and its press presented Trump as a racist murderer. May kept trying to get back into the EU, and may have thought that ill-treating Trump would help. Boris Johnson followed May, and was pro-Trump, but his cabinet was not. They acted as if they could recreate the British empire of Queen Victoria — a silly thought. They tried for free trade deals with India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, members of the old empire, but they never quite managed anything. COVID made things worse. The UK economy stalled, Johnson was removed, and the current PM, Rishi Sunak, seems to have got nowhere with Biden. Trump re-offered his trade deal during the visit, but he was out of office; Both Biden and Sunak ignored it.

The UK needs free trade with some substantial countries. They are a hub for manufacturing, information, and banking, currently without any spokes. India likely turned them down because the UK no longer has the power to protect them from enemies, China, Iran, Russia.., nor to protect their trade. Aside from rejoining the EU (good luck there), US is the obvious partner. If personality were the problem, there would have been a deal between Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden.

Since leaving the EU, the UK is doing slightly better than Germany, but that’s not saying much. British exports were helped by the cut off of trade with Russia, but that might not last, and London is having trouble trying to remain a financial center, fighting difficult travel and work rules, and the decline of the pound. Maybe it’s Biden’s fault that there is no deal. It’s hard to tell. Last week, the British Foreign secretary, David Cameron, came to visit Trump at Mar a Lago for a good feelings chat and to start on a trade deal should Trump become president. It’s not clear that Trump will become president, but there are at least hopes for a deal, ideally signed at a distance from the baby balloon.

Robert Buxbaum, April 18, 2024 *”Russian collusion” was a big deal at the time. A dossier was supposed show that Trump was a Russian agent. It turned out the dossier was created by Democrats working with the FBI.

Einstein’s theory of diffusion in liquids, and my extension.

Leave a reply

In 1905 and 1908, Einstein developed two formulations for the diffusion of a small particle in a liquid. As a side-benefit of the first derivation, he demonstrated the visible existence of molecules, a remarkable piece of work. In the second formulation, he derived the same result using non-equilibrium thermodynamics, something he seems to have developed on the spot. I’ll give a brief version of the second derivation, and will then I’ll show off my own extension. It’s one of my proudest intellectual achievements.

But first a little background to the problem. In 1827, a plant biologist, Robert Brown examined pollen under a microscope and noticed that it moved in a jerky manner. He gave this “Brownian motion” the obvious explanation: that the pollen was alive and swimming. Later, it was observed that the pollen moved faster in acetone. The obvious explanation: pollen doesn’t like acetone, and thus swims faster. But the pollen never stopped, and it was noticed that cigar smoke also swam. Was cigar smoke alive too?

Einstein’s first version of an answer, 1905, was to consider that the liquid was composed of atoms whose energy was a Boltzmann distribution with an average of E= kT in every direction where k is the Boltzmann constant, and k = R/N. That is Boltsman’s constant equals the gas constant, R, divided by Avogadro’s number, N. He was able to show that the many interactions with the molecules should cause the pollen to take a random, jerky walk as seen, and that the velocity should be faster the less viscous the solvent, or the smaller the length-scale of observation. Einstein applied the Stokes drag equation to the solute, the drag force per particle was f = -6πrvη where r is the radius of the solute particle, v is the velocity, and η is the solution viscosity. Using some math, he was able to show that the diffusivity of the solute should be D = kT/6πrη. This is called the Stokes-Einstein equation.

In 1908 a French physicist, Jean Baptiste Perrin confirmed Einstein’s predictions, winning the Nobel prize for his work. I will now show the 1908 Einstein derivation and will hope to get to my extension by the end of this post.

Consider the molar Gibbs free energy of a solvent, water say. The molar concentration of water is x and that of a very dilute solute is y. y<<1. For this nearly pure water, you can show that µ = µ° +RT ln x= µ° +RT ln (1-y) = µ° -RTy.

Now, take a derivative with respect to some linear direction, z. Normally this is considered illegal, since thermodynamic is normally understood to apply to equilibrium systems only. Still Einstein took the derivative, and claimed it was legitimate at nearly equilibrium, pseudo-equilibrium. You can calculate the force on the solvent, the force on the water generated by a concentration gradient, Fw = dµ/dz = -RT dy/dz.

Now the force on each atom of water equals -RT/N dy/dz = -kT dy/dz.

Now, let’s call f the force on each atom of solute. For dilute solutions, this force is far higher than the above, f = -kT/y dy/dz. That is, for a given concentration gradient, dy/dz, the force on each solute atom is higher than on each solvent atom in inverse proportion to the molar concentration.

For small spheres, and low velocities, the flow is laminar and the drag force, f = 6πrvη.

Now calculate the speed of each solute atom. It is proportional to the force on the atom by the same relationship as appeared above: f = 6πrvη or v = f/6πrη. Inserting our equation for f= -kT/y dy/dz, we find that the velocity of the average solute molecule,

v = -kT/6πrηy dy/dz.

Let’s say that the molar concentration of solvent is C, so that, for water, C will equal about 1/18 mols/cc. The atomic concentration of dilute solvent will then equal Cy. We find that the molar flux of material, the diffusive flux equals Cyv, or that

Molar flux (mols/cm2/s) = Cy (-kT/6πrηy dy/dz) = -kTC/6πrη dy/dz -kT/6πrη dCy/dz.

where Cy is the molar concentration of solvent per volume.

Classical engineering comes to a similar equation with a property called diffusivity. Sp that

Molar flux of y (mols y/cm2/s) = -D dCy/dz, and D is an experimentally determined constant. We thus now have a prediction for D:

D = kT/6πrη.

This again is the Stokes Einstein Equation, the same as above but derived with far less math. I was fascinated, but felt sure there was something wrong here. Macroscopic viscosity was not the same as microscopic. I just could not think of a great case where there was much difference until I realized that, in polymer solutions there was a big difference.

Polymer solutions, I reasoned had large viscosities, but a diffusing solute probably didn’t feel the liquid as anywhere near as viscous. The viscometer measured at a larger distance, more similar to that of the polymer coil entanglement length, while a small solute might dart between the polymer chains like a rabbit among trees. I applied an equation for heat transfer in a dispersion that JK Maxwell had derived,

where κeff is the modified effective thermal conductivity (or diffusivity in my case), κl and κp are the thermal conductivity of the liquid and the particles respectively, and φ is the volume fraction of particles. 

To convert this to diffusion, I replaced κl by Dl, and κp by Dp where

Dl = kT/6πrηl

and Dp = kT/6πrη.

In the above ηl is the viscosity of the pure, liquid solvent.

The chair of the department, Don Anderson didn’t believe my equation, but agreed to help test it. A student named Kit Yam ran experiments on a variety of polymer solutions, and it turned out that the equation worked really well down to high polymer concentrations, and high viscosity.

As a simple, first approximation to the above, you can take Dp = 0, since it’s much smaller than Dl and you can take Dl to equal Dl = kT/6πrηl as above. The new, first order approximation is:

D = kT/6πrηl (1 – 3φ/2).

We published in Science. That is I published along with the two colleagues who tested the idea and proved the theory right, or at least useful. The reference is Yam, K., Anderson, D., Buxbaum, R. E., Science 240 (1988) p. 330 ff. “Diffusion of Small Solutes in Polymer-Containing Solutions”. This result is one of my proudest achievements.

R.E. Buxbaum, March 20, 2024

Defending against deadly attacks on Jews.

Leave a reply

There have been many attacks on Jewish schools, homes , and markets. The press likes to blame white supremicists. But in the US, Islamicists and “Black Hebrews” have been the more regular assailants. Along with them are equal opportunity killers — those who kill, for no obvious reason. I note that mostly attackers don’t wear body armor, suggesting that a small revolver is the best choice for defense. The police come, but never in time.

The Monsey, NY, 2019 attack is fairly typical of a small-scale hate crime, though it was not charged as such. A member of the “Black Hebrew” movement who had attacked Jews in the. past, always released by police, waled into a Channuka celebration in a home in Monsey, NY, pulled a large knife, and stabbed the rabbi and four others before being chased out by folks with chairs. One of those stabbed died from the wounds, and several others spent time in hospital. The attacker, undeterred, drove attack another Jewish establishment, a nearby orthodox shul, and attacked there. It seems he’d committed an anti-Jewish stabbing shortly before this murder, but was released as always before the final, deadly attack. As with most black on Jewish attacks, this was not ruled a hate crime by the police.

Kessler before the attack. The claim is that his flag triggered an accidental attack by Professor Alnaji and his compatriot.

In the US Islamic on Jewish attacks tend to be ruled as accidents or legitimate expressions, and never as hate crimes. In Thousand Oaks California, 2023, Paul Kessler 69 was standing with an Israeli flag (right) when two Islamic activists crossed the street to shout at him. One of them, Professor Loay Abdelfattah Alnaji, hit him fatally on the head with a bull horn. The police ruled it accidental, involuntary manslaughter, despite that it was two on one, deliberate, premeditated, and the assailant kept yelling: “stop killing our children,” even after Kessler was down after being hit. Alnaji is free on bail of $50K. It was not ruled a hate crime.

Poway synagog shooter, Shot four, killed one before gun jammed.

The court reacts quite differently to white on Jewish crimes, ruling these hate crimes and punishing to the full extent of the law. An example, in Poway, CA, 2019, a white man, left, entered the Orthodox, Chabad synagog during services carrying a semi-automatic pistol. He shot and killed the first person he met, then shot the rabbi, entered a side room, and shot two more, an adult and an 8 year old. Then his gun jammed. At that point he left, and called 911. He claimed he hated Jews, Moslems, and President Trump. I note that gun jams are common in stressful situations, but police showing up in time is uncommon. A revolver for personal defense would’ve helped, but they are mostly illegal in California — not that the antigun laws deterred the killer.

Organized attacks are more deadly, and almost impossible to defend against. They tend to be Islamic. The recent attack on a music festival in Israel, for example. An air – land assault with machine guns by an armed group civilians (and UN workers!) that left 1500 dead, and 250 captured. Most of the victims were unarmed, but some were armed. They were over-run, and killed. It is very hard to defend against multiple assailants with training and the advantage of surprise.

A smaller-scale versions of these military stile Islamic attacks have play out regularly around the world. For example, Mumbai, 2019, two Islamic activists entered an orthodox Jewish hostel and school, and barricaded themselves in. Over the course of three days, they killed the rabbi and his wife, and five of their children. It was part of a wider program of well-planned attacks on Jews and Jewish businesses in India. The two perpetrators were eventually killed by the police, but the support network escaped justice. These are the folks who planned the attack, and armed the two; IMHO they are as guilty as the murderers.

The shooter who attacked the Hyper Kasher kosher store in Paris. He was trained, but worked alone, and wears no bulletproof vest. First he shot the person nearest to him and those behind the counter — anyone who might reasonably stop him. He then closed the metal grate around the store, started talking and killing for 4 hours. A well timed shot or two could have taken him out.

In Paris, as a similar Islamic general attack on Jews and businesses included the killing of 12 at the humor magazine “Charlie Hebdot” A trained Islamic activist entered a kosher market, “hypercasher” with two Kalashnikov AK47s provided by the same network who armed the Charlie Hebdot killers. Ownership of most guns is illegal in France, but that makes for easy targets. On entering, he immediately killed the person next to him and shot the two people behind the counter (one died). He then asked that the store be sealed by its steel gratings so he could keep on killing in peace. Secure in the market, the attacker then asked if he should kill someone else. When every shouted no, he laughed and killed the person. The killer talked and killed for the next 4 hours while the police gathered outside and watched. One unarmed customer tried to attack him, but was killed in the process, and jeered at besides — jeers seem to be common. Eventually, the French police killed the attacker and rescued those still alive. As with the Indian attack, the support network escaped or were found non-guilty. If someone had a pistol, maybe the killing would have ended quicker.

White supmemicist, right killed 11 in Pittsburgh. Survivor, center picture will testify. From the NY Post.

In Pittsburgh, PA, 2018, a “White supremicist” entered the “tree of life synagogue” with four semi-automatic pistols (three of them Glocks). He killed 11, going from room to room, sometimes talking to people. One survivor hid under the sink for hours, unable to reach his phone in deadly fear that it would ring and expose him. Eventually the killer just left, and as he did, someone with a gun shot after him, missing. Clearly, this fellow had that gun all along but was afraid to draw it, or could not find it. I’m glad he missed, by the way. If he’d hit the guy as he left, the shooter would have gone to jail. According to US law, you can’t shoot a fleeing attacker. My lesson is that you want a gun that’s small enough to hide well and draw easily, and you want to practice enough to be comfortable using it.

Another deadly attack from “Black Hebrews”, this time organized, military stile. In Jersey City, 2019, two “Black Hebrews” attacked the patrons of an orthodox, Kosher market, starting to shoot from the street, from 50 feet away. Once they were sure that no one inside was armed, they entered and killed three individuals who were doing their best to hide. The recent Gaza attacks used this military style, too. They attacked from a distance first to drive folks into hiding, then set the buildings afire or shot cowering individuals point blank. it’s very hard to defend against this sort of attack, especially if you are unarmed, but even if you are armed and trained.

Enhanced photo from the shooting at the Jersey City Kosher market. This is a rare example of military tactics being used. Two attackers of the “Black Hebrews” started shooting from outside the store, and only entered later to finish up.

The majority of other deadly attacks are by “Islamic youths” against older Jews. The youths will enter a house, threaten, kill, and leave. In one case the victim (a professor) was beheaded on the main street. He’d shown cartoons to his class that suggested that Islam is not peaceful. As with beatings that go with “Palestine Independence” rallies, these attacks are not considered “hate crimes,” but teen violence or political expression.

Hate crimes or not, they mostly target Jews, and they seem to be religiously motivated. Typically, it’s only one or two assailants attacking a chosen, visibly orthodox individual or place. Killing is mostly in close quarters over a relatively long period, often jeering the dead. So far, none appear to use a bulletproof vest. The police do not come on time, ever.

From the above, I suggest a stubby revolver for its concealment and reliability. Carrying a gun is not a good idea if you have children in the house, or if you spend a lot of time in schools, even though these are among the locations that need defending most. You need permission to carry in large venues, including big stores, synagogues and churches, as well as most clubs.

J. Edgar Hoover’s 1939, 32 caliber, “Pocket perfect,” Detective.

A gun suggestion is a “detective special” revolver like the S+W 642 “airweight, 14.6 ounces. It’s about half of the weight of a standard Glock, and shoots five bullets of 38 caliber. A step smaller are 32 caliber revolvers as were carried by J. Edgar Hoover. Smaller yet, are 22LR and/or 22WMR, revolvers like the S+W 351C or 351 PD, and all the NAA mini revolvers, 6 to 11 oz. They are easy to carry, non-obvious, and more reliable than a semi. Five to seven bullets can be enough. Robert Kennedy was killed with a 22lr. Semi-automatic pistols are good for the range, but they need to be racked, and tend to jam in tense situations.

I suggest a revolver that takes different loads. You can practice with cheaper ammo, and carry it loaded with more expensive. Especially with semis, make sure you can draw fast and shoot accurately without jamming.

Robert Buxbaum, March 10, 2024. A common claim in the press is that guns should be banned as in Europe, or highly regulated as in New York, New Jersey and California. I disagree. Europe has a very high rate of violent crime, including quite a few deadly attacks on jews.