If nothing sticks to teflon, how do you stick teflon to a pan? PFAS.

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When I was eight or nine year old, I went to the 1963-64 World’s Fair in New York. Among the attractions, in “the kitchen of the future”, I saw the first version of an amazing fry-pan that was coated with plastic. You could cook an egg on that plastic without any oil, and the egg didn’t stick. The plastic was called teflon, a DuPont innovation, whose molecule is shown below.

The molecular structure of Teflon. There is an interior carbon backbone that is completely enclosed with tightly bound fluorine atoms. The net result is a compound that does not bind readily to anything else.

Years later, I came to understand that Teflon’s high-temperature stability and non-stick properties derive from the carbon-fluorine bonds. These bonds are much stronger than the carbon-hydrogen bonds found in food, and most solid, organic things. Because of the strength of the carbon-fluorine bond, Teflon is resistant to oxidation, and to chemical interaction with other molecules, e.g. in food. It does not even interact with water, making it hydrophobic and non-wetting on metals. The carbon-carbon bonds in the middle remained high temperature stable, in part because they were completely shielded by the fluorine atoms.

This is a PFAS. The left side is just like teflon, and very hydrophobic. The right side is hydrophilic and highly bonding to pans, and many other things like water or cotton.

But as remarkable as teflon’s non-stick properties are, perhaps the most amazing thing was that it somehow sticks to the pan. For the first generation pans I saw, it didn’t stick very well. Still, the DuPont engineers had found a way to stick non-stick Teflon to a metal for long enough to cook many meals. If they had not found this trick, teflon would not have the majority of its value, but how did they do it? It turns out they used a thin coating of a di-functional compound called PFAS, a a polyfluoro sulphonyl (or polyfluoroalkyl) substance. The molecular structure of a common PFAS, is shown above.

Each molecule of PFAS has one end that’s teflon-like and another end that’s different. The non-Teflon end, in this case a sulfonyl group, is chosen to be both high temperature stable and sticky to metal oxides. The sulphonyl group above is highly polar, and acidic. Acidic will bind to bases, like metal oxides. The surface of the metal pan is prepared by applying a thin layer of oxide or amidine, making it a polar base. The PFAS is then applied, then Teflon. The Teflon-end of the PFAS is bound to teflon by the hydrophobicity of everything else rejecting it.

There are many other uses for PFAS. For example, PFAS is applied to clothing to make it wrinkle free and stain resistant. It can also be used as a super soap, making uncommonly stable foams and bubbles. It is also used in fire-fighting and plane de-icing. Finally, PFAS is the main component of Nafion, the most common membrane for PEM fuel cells. (I can think of yet other applications..) There is just one small problem with PFAS, though. Like teflon, this molecule is uncommonly stable. It doesn’t readily decompose in nature. That would be a small problem if we were sure that PFAS was safe. As it happens it seems safe, but we’re not totally sure.

The safety of PFAS was studied extensively before PFAS-teflon pans was put on the market, but the methodology has been questioned. Large doses of PFAS were fed to test animals, and their health observed. Since the test animals showed no real signs of ill-health though some showed a slight liver enlargement, PFAS was accepted as safe for humans at a lower exposure dose. PFAS was approved for use on pans and allowed to be dumped under conditions where humans would be exposed to 1/1000 of that used on the animals. The assumption was that there would be little or no health hazard at these low exposure levels.

But low risk is not no risk, and today one can sue for even the hint of an effect though use of a class action suit. That is, lawyers sue on behalf of all the people who might have been damaged. My city was sued successfully this way for complicity in sewage over-flows. Of course, since the citizens being paid by the suit are the same ones who have to pay for the damage, only the lawyers benefit. Still, the law is the law, and at least for some judges, putting anyone at risk is enough evidence of willful disregard to hand down a stinging judgement against the evil doer. Judges have begun awarding large claims for PFAS too. While no individual can get the claim more than a tiny amount of money, the lawyers can do very well.

There is no new evidence that PFAS is dangerous, but none is needed if you can get yourself the right judge. In this regard, an industry of judicial tourism has sprung up, where class-action lawyers travel to districts where the judges are favorable. For Teflon suits, the bust hunting grounds are in New York, New Hampshire, and California, and the worst are blood-red states like Wyoming and Utah. Just as different judges promote different precedents, different states allow vastly different PFAS concentrations in the water. A common standard, one used by Michigan, is 70 ppt, 1 billion times stricter than the amounts tested on animals. This is roughly 500 times stricter than the acceptable concentratios for lead, a known poison. The standard in New York is 7 times stricter than Michigan, 10 ppt. The standard in North Carolina is 140,000 ppt, in in several states there is no legal limit to PFAS dumping. There is no scientific logic to all of this, and skeptical view is that the states that rule more strictly for PFAS than lead do so make money for lawyers. Lead is everyone in the natural environment, so you can’t sue as easily for lead. PFAS is a man-made intruder, though, and a strict standard helps lawyers sue. You can find a summary of state by state regulations here.

Any guideline stricter than about 1000 ppt, presents a challenge to the water commissioner who must measure it and enforce the law. There are tricks, though. You can use the surfactant quality of PFAS to concentrate it by a factor of 100 or more. To do this, you take a sample of river water and create bubbles. Any bubbles that form will be highly concentrated in PFAS. Once PFAS can be identified this way, and the concentrators estimated, the polluters can be held liable. Whether we benefit from the strict rulings is another story. If I were making the law for Michigan, I’d probably choose a limit about 1 ppb, but I’m not making the law. The law, as written, may be an idiot, as Bumble said, but the Law is the Law.

In terms of Michigan fishing, while some rivers have PFAS concentrators above the MI-legal limit, they are generally not far over the line. I would trust the fish in the Huron River, even west of Wixom road but I’d suggest you avoid any foam you find floating there. The PFAS content of foam will be much higher than that of the water in general.

Robert E. Buxbaum, June 30, 2020, edited July 8, 2020. There are seven compounds known as PFAS’s: perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), perfluoroheptanoic acid (PFHpA), and perfluorobutanesulfonic acid (PFBS).

Methuselah palm finds a mate after 2100 years

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The Judean date palm was extinct until 15 years ago, remembered only through pictures, eg. on ancient coins, see below, and mentions in ancient books including the psalms of David. There were also some ancient seeds, 2100 years old, that had been found buried in a jar near the entry ramp of the fortress Masada. Sarah Sallon of Israel’s Natural Medicine Research Center became convinced that these dates had medicinal as well as historical value, and badgered the archeologists for seed samples and permission to try her luck reviving this extinct plant. The archeologists thought she was nuts but eventually she got permission to try her luck with some seeds that Prof Ehud Netzer, had stored in his desk.

Dr. Elaine Solowey, Dr. Elaine Solowey, Director of the Center for Sustainable Agriculture, and, the Methuselah tree. Note the distinctive leaves. The tree is not ten feet tall and ready to mate.

Against all odds, Dr. Sallon, in 2005, succeeded in germinating one of these ancient seeds, a feat thought to be botanically impossible. Named, Methuselah it was the oldest seed ever grown, attracting wide international attention. But it was a one-off, a male without a female plant.

Methuselah was, at that point, a historic artifact – an interesting tourist attraction at the center fro sustainable agriculture. There was no way to grow the famous Judaic dates, though without a female parent. But Dr. Sallon was undeterred, she found another archaeologist who had recovered a trove of date seeds from various sites in Qumran — the site where the Dead Sea scrolls had been discovered, plus from the Wadi Makukh and the Wadi Kelt. Some of these seeds were as old as the one that produced Methuselah.

Vespasian coin with Judaean palm and the legend “Iudaea Capta.” (Judea is captured). A Judean date palm is shown along with a mourning Jew and a triumphant Roman.

A group headed by Dr. Sallon, selected a total of 34 seeds for further study, choosing specimens that appeared to be visually to be intact, whole seeds, in good condition, and without holes. Chosen to study included more seeds from Masada (8 seeds), Qumran (18 seeds), Wadi Makukh (7 seeds), and Wadi Kelt (1 seed). The seeds were identified by code numbers, photographed, and measured for weight and length (with the exception of Masada seeds, which unfortunately were not measured). One date seed, from the Qumran excavations (HU 37 A11), was selected as a control and left unplanted.

The remaining 33 seeds were subjected to a preparatory process to increase the likelihood of germination): the seeds were soaked in water for 24 hours and in gibberellic acid (5.19 mM) (OrthoGrow, USA) for 6 hours to encourage embryonic growth. This was followed by Hormoril T8 solution (5 g/liter) (Asia-Riesel, Israel) for 6 hours to encourage rooting and KF-20 organic fertilizer (10 ml/liter) (VGI, Israel) for 12 hours. All solutions were maintained at 35°C.

Following the above procedure, one seed was found to be damaged and not planted. The others were separately potted in sterile potting soil, 1 cm below the surface, and placed in a locked quarantine site at the Arava Institute of Environmental Sciences in southern Israel.

The six young trees. the two females are at the bottom right.

Six of these germinated. Periodically they were treated with KF-20 (10 ml/liter) and iron chelate (10 g/liter). Irrigation used desalinated water, as the previous study indicated that using the region’s highly mineralized water produced “tip burn” (darkening and drying of leaves). The seeds that did not germinate were removed for further testing and the shells of the seeds that did sprout were tested to determine their sex,  Of the six, two were determined to be female and four male. The female plants have been named Judith and Hannah, two Biblical names associated with children. It will be many years before they can mate, but it’s a hopeful start. The four other plants are Adam, Jonah, Urial, and Boaz. Radio-carbon dating suggests that one of these female seeds is 2100 years old, like Methuselah, while the other is only 1900 years old. See article in AAAS.

If either of the female plants survives to maturity, and if they prove to be compatible, we may yet get to eat of the famous biblical fruit. When the Bible calls Israel is called the land of milk and honey, the honey is the date honey of this tree.  Will these dry bones yet rise and live? Perhaps so. Dr. Solloway seas the revival of this plant as a symbol of hope. I do too.

Robert E. Buxbaum, June 7, 2020, There is a bit of Frankenstein in any revival of the dead, but I’m ore comfortable bringing back ancient plants than bringing back the Wooly Mammoth, the passenger pigeon, or the T Rex.

When prostitution was legal in America, 1863-65.

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Readers of this blog know that I am not a fan of very harsh punishments for crime, in particular for crimes that have no direct victim, e.g. drug possession and sales. Prostitution is another crime with no direct victim. One could argue that society as a whole is the victim, but my sense is that punishments should be minimal and targeted, e.g. to prevent involuntary human trafficking and disease. Our current laws, depicted here, are clearly not designed for this, but there was a brief period where prostitution laws did make more sense. During the civil war, civil war, prostitution was legal and regulated to prevent disease.

In 1862, Union forces captured the southern cities of Nashville and Memphis, Tenn. Major Gen. William Rosecrans set up headquarters in Nashville. Before the war, Nashville was home to 198 white prostitutes and nine  “mulatto,” operating in a two-block area known as “Smoky Row.” 

By the end of 1862,  Smokey row had grown and these numbers swelled to 1,500 “public women”. White southern women turned to prostitution out of poverty, largely. Their husbands were dead, or ill paid, and they were joined by recently freed slaves. Benton E. Dubbs, a Union private, reported a saying that “no man culd [sic] be a soldier unless he had gone through Smokey Row,” … “The street was about three-fourths of a mile long and every house or shanty on both sides was a house of ill fame. Women had no thought of dress or decency. They say Smokey Row killed more soldiers than the war.” 

By 1863, venerial disease was becoming a major problem. The Surgeon General would document 183,000 cases of venereal disease in the Union Army alone, “…the Pocks and the Clap. The cases of this complaint is numerous, especially among the officers.”  

Permit for Legal prostitution signed by Col George Spaulding.

At first General Rosecrans directed his assistant, Colonel Spaulding, to remove the women by sending them to other states, first by train, and then by boat commandeering the ship, Idaho for the purpose. The effect was horrible, not only was the ship turned back by every city, but the departure of these ladies just resulted in the appearance of a new cohort of sex-workers. By the time the Idaho had returned, Rosecrans had been relieved of command following embarrassing defeats at Chickamauga and Chattanooga . Col. Spaulding now tried a new technique to stop the plague of VD: legalized prostitution. It worked.

Women’s hospital during the war, Nashville.

For a $5/month fee a “public woman” could become a legal prostitute, or “Public Woman” so long as she submitted to monthly health inspections for a certificate of her soundness. If found infected, she was to report to a hospital dedicated to this treatment, was subject to imprisonment if she operated without the license and certificate. The effect was a major decline in sexually-transmitted disease, and an improvement (so it is claimed) in the quality of the services. The fees collected were sufficient to cover the cost of the operation and hospital, nearly.

At the end of the war, Col Spaulding and the union soldiers left Nashville, and prostitution returned to being illegal, if tolerated. One assumes that the VD rates went up as well.

George Spaulding, Congressman..

Colonel Spaulding and Maj. General Rosecrans are interesting characters beyond the above. Spaulding had entered the war as a private and rose through the ranks by merit. The rise didn’t stop at colonel. After the war, he became postmaster of Monroe Michigan, 1866 to 1870, US Treasury agent, 1871 to 1875, Mayor of Monroe, 1876 to ?, President of the board of education, a lawyer in 1878, and congressman for the MI 2nd district (Republican) 1894 -1898. He also served as board member of the Home for Girls 1885 to 1897, and postmaster of Monroe, 1899 to 1907.

William Rosecrans was a Catholic, engineer-inventor from West Point. Before the war, in 1853, he designed St. Mary’s Roman Catholic Church, one of the largest US churches at the time, site of the wedding of John Kennedy and Jacqueline Bouvier. He also designed and installed one of the first lock systems in Western Virginia. He and two partners built an early oil refinery. He patented a method of soap making and the first kerosene lamp to burn a round wick, and was one of the eleven incorporators of the Southern Pacific Railroad. After the war, he served as Ambassador to Mexico, 1868-69 and was congressman from California, 1st district (Democrat) 1880 – 1884. A true Democrat, Rosecrans could not stand either Grant or Garfield, and fought against Grant getting a retirement package.

Robert Buxbaum, June 5, 2020. There are other ways to stop the spread of sexual diseases. During the AIDS epidemic, condoms were the preferred method, and during the current COVID crisis, face masks are being touted. My preference is iodine hand wash. All methods work if they can reduce the transmission rate, Ro below 1.

Biden’s touching problem.

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Ex VP, Joe Biden has a long history of touching people in uncomfortable ways. He does it with men and women, and has a particular problem with children. As bad as it is to grab a sheriff on the leg, or Hillary Clinton when she clearly does not want to be grabbed, it’s quite a lot worse to fondle the hair and face of a child you are not related to (above). An expert reviewing the video of his many grabs, pats, and hair sniffs, came to conclude that Biden behaves like a predator.

Biden grabs a sheriff in a ways that most find inappropriate. He says’s its just his way to make a connection. Others say it’s ‘his power move.’

Adding to Biden’s touching problems, Tara Reade, one of Biden’s staffers has come forward to say that Biden not only made her feel uncomfortable, but pinned her to a wall at the capital building, penetrated her with his hand, and asked for sex. When a panel of experts went over her testimony and Biden’s denial, they came away believing Tara, and not believing Biden. Here is a video with them discussing the various tells that cause them to doubt Biden. Here is another video with the same individuals discussing Reade’s accusation.

Biden applies his power move on Secretary of State Clinton.

What’s to be done? There are still may in the Democratic party who would like to see Biden drop out in favor of someone less tainted, like Bernie. Others, like Illan Omar have concluded that despite Biden being a predator, she supports him as providing the best chance to defeat Donald Trump.

Robert Buxbaum, June 4, 2020

Brazilian scientists speak out for hydroxychloroquine

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Brazil has decided to go its own route in response to the Corona virus pandemic. They’re using minimal social distancing with a heavy reliance on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a cheap drug that they claim is effective (as has our president). Brazil has been widely criticized for this, despite so far having lower death rate per million than the US, Canada, or most of Europe. In an open letter, copied in part below, 25 Brazilian scientists speak out against the politicalization of science, and in favor of their approach to COVID-19. The full letter (here). The whole letter is very worth reading, IMHO, but especially worthwhile is their section on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), copied below.

….. Numerous countries such as the USA, Spain, France, Italy, India, Israel, Russia, Costa Rica and Senegal use the drug (HCQ) to fight covid-19, whereas other countries refrain from using HCQ as one of the strategies to contain the pandemic, betting on other controversial tactics.

Who then speaks here in the name of “science”? Which group has a monopoly on reason and its exclusive authorization to be the spokesperson of “science”? Where is such authorization found?One can choose an opinion, and base his strategy on it, this is fine, but no one should commit the sacrilege of protecting his decision risking to tarnish with it the “sacred mantle of science”.

Outraged, every day I hear mayors and governors saying at the top of their lungs that they “have followed science”. Presidents of councils and some of their advisers, and of academies and deans in their offices write letters on behalf of their entire community, as if they reflect everyone’s consensual position. Nothing could be more false.Have they followed science? Not at all! They have followed the science wing which they like, and the scientists who they chose to place around them. They ignore the other wing of science, since there are also hundreds of scientists and articles that oppose their positions and measures.

Worse, scientists are not angels. Scientists are people, and people have likes and dislikes, passions and political party preferences. Or wouldn’t they? There are many scientists, therefore, who do good without looking at whom, I know and admire many of them. But there are also pseudoscientists who use science to defend their opinion, their own pocket, or their passion. Scientists have worked and still work hard and detached to contribute to the good of humanity, many of whom are now in their laboratories, risking their lives to develop new methods of detecting coronavirus, drugs and vaccines, when they could stay “safe at home”. But, to illustrate my point, I know scientists who have published articles, some even in major journals such as “Science” or “Nature”, with data they have manufactured “during the night”; others who have removed points from their curves, or used other similar strategies. Many scientists were at Hitler’s side, weren’t they? Did they act in the name of “science”? Others have developed atom bombs. Others still develop chemical and biological weapons and illicit drugs, by design.

The Manaus’ study with chloroquine (CQ) performed here in Brazil and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) [1], is emblematic to this discussion of “science”. Scientists there used, the manuscript reveals, lethal doses in debilitated patients, many in severe conditions and with comorbidities. The profiles of the groups do not seem to have been “randomized”, since a clear “preference” in the HIGH DOSE group for risk factors is noted. Chloroquine, which is more toxic than HCQ, was used, and it seems that they even made “childish mistakes” in simple stoichiometric calculations, doubling the dosage with the error. I’m incapable of judging intentions, but justice will do it. The former Brazilian Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta quoted this study, supported it, and based on it, categorically stated: “I do not approve HCQ because I am based on ‘science, science, science’!”.

Another study published by Chinese researchers in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and which is still persistently used against HCQ was also at least revolting [2]. In it, the authors declared: “we administer 1,200 mg for 3 days, followed by 800 mg for 12 to 21 days, in patients with moderate to severe symptoms”. In other words, they gave a huge dosage of the drug that could reach the absurdity of 20 grams in the end, and it given was too late to patients (HCQ should be administered in the first symptoms or even earlier). And even worse, overdosing on HCQ or any other drug for severe cases is poisonous. What do you think, was it good science? The recommended dosage in Brazil, since May 20th, 2020, by the new Ministry of Health, for mild symptoms is 2 times 400 mg in the first day (every 12 hours) and 400 mg for 5 days for a total of 2.8 grams.

In other published studies, also in these internationally renowned journals such as The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA and BMJ [3-5], once again, “problems” are clearly noted, since or the patients were randomized in irregular ways, placing older, more susceptible or most severe and hypoxemic patients in the higher (lethal) dose groups, or more men (almost 3 times more deadly by covid than women), or more black people (in the USA, black people have displayed higher mortality) and more smokers, and where most of the deaths occurred in the first days of the studies (signs that were deaths of critically ill patients, who at this stage would be more “intoxicated” than “treated” with HCQ), or they administered HCQ isolated, when it is known that it is necessary to associate HCQ at least with azithromycin. One of these studies [5] administered HCQ only on the sixteenth day of symptoms (for really early treatment, HCQ administration should be started up to fifth day), in other words, at the end of the disease, when the drug can do little good or nothing to the patient.

These studies indicate that some scientists either forgot how “science” is done or that there is a huge effort to disprove, whatever it takes, that HCQ works. How can someone or even Councils and Academies of Medicine cite such studies as the “science” of their decisions? How can that be?

On the contrary, the study published – and today with more than 3 thousand patients tested – and carried out by Dr. Didier Raoult in France [6], using the correct dosage and at the right time, with a very low mortality rate (0.4%), and the Prevent Senior’s clinical experience in Brazil – also quite encouraging – are disqualified with very “futile” arguments such as: “Didier Raoult is a controversial and unworthy researcher”, “At Prevent Senior Clinic they were not sure of the diagnosis” (but none of the hospitalized patients with clear COVID symptoms died), “Placebo effect” (what a supernatural power of inducing our mind that reduces mortality from 40% to zero, I want this placebo!), “Study performed by a health plan company” (I do not doubt that this people indeed want to save lives, because the patients were their customers who pay their bills), and similar ephemeral arguments.…

The Brazilian scents who signed the letter. Read the whole letter here.

I admire the spunk of these fellows going agains the doctors, WHO. Beyond being a critique of bad research on a particular drug, it is a defense of science. Science is a discussion, a striving for truth. It is not supposed to demand blind allegiance to a few politically appointed experts. They’ve convinced me that the tests sponsored by the world health organization seem designed to show failure, and reminded me that there is rarely a one-size-fits-all for problems and all times.

I also find striking the highly critical response of my local newspapers and TV reporters. While they both like to highlight efforts by South America as they try entering the first world, with help from Bill gates and leftist politicians, they have been uniformly condemned Brazil for its non-left approach and now for use of HCQ. They want Sous Americans to think, but only if their conclusions are no different from those of their favorite, liberal thinkers.

Robert Buxbaum, May 28, 2020. Check out my notes on how to do science right. And by the way, you might want to use iodine hand wash to minimize your chance of getting or spreading COVID and other diseases.

Iodine is far better than soap or alcohol sanitizer.

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I’m a fan of iodine both as a hand sanitizer, and as a sanitizer for surfaces. II’ve made gallons of the stuff for my own use and to give away. Perhaps I’ll come to sell it too. Unlike soap washing or alcohol sanitizer, iodine stays on your hands for hours after you use it. Alcohol evaporates in a few seconds, and soap washes off. The result is that iodine retains killing power after you use it. The iodine that I make and use is 0.1%, a concentration that is non-toxic to humans but very toxic to viruses. Here is an article about the effectiveness of iodine against viruses and bacteria Iodine works both on external surfaces, and internally, e.g. when used as a mouthwash. Iodine kills germs in all environments, and has been used for this purpose for a century.

With normal soap or sanitizer it’s almost impossible to keep from reinfecting your hands almost as soon as you wash. I’ve embedded a video showing why that is. It should play below, but here’s the link to the video on youtube, just in case it does not.

The problem with washing your hands after you receive an item, like food, is that you’re likely to infect the sink faucet and the door knob, and the place where you set the food. Even after you wash, you’re likely to re-infect yourself almost immediately and then infect the towel. Because iodine lasts on your hands for hours, killing germs, you have a good chance of not infecting yourself. If you live locally, come by for a free bottle of sanitizer.

For those who’d like more clinical data to back up the effectiveness of iodine, here’s a link to a study, I also made a video on the chemistry of iodine relevant to why it kills germs. You might find it interesting. It appears below, but if it does not play right, Here’s a link.

The video shows two possible virus fighting interactions, including my own version of the clock reaction. The first of these is the iodine starch interaction, where iodine bonds forms an I<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup> complex, I then show that vitamin C unbinds the iodine, somewhat, by reducing the iodine to iodide, I<sup>-</sup>. I then add hydrogen peroxide to deoxidize the iodine, remove an electron. The interaction of vitamin C and hydrogen peroxide creates my version of the clock reaction. Fun stuff.

The actual virus fighting mechanism of iodine is not known, though the data we have suggests the mechanism is a binding with the fatty starches of the viral shell, the oleo-polysaccharides. Backing this mechanism is the observation that the shape of the virus does not change when attacked by iodine, and that the iodine is somewhat removable, as in the video. It is also possible that iodine works by direct oxidation, as does hydrogen peroxide or chlorine. Finally, I’ve seen a paper showing that internal iodine, more properly called iodide works too. My best guess about how that would work is that the iodide is oxidized to iodine once it is in the body.

There is one more item that is called iodine, that one might confuse with the “metallic” iodine solutions that I made, or that are sold as a tincture. These are the iodine compounds used for CAT-scan contrast. These are not iodine itself, but complex try-iodo-benzine compounds. Perhaps the simplest of these is diatrizoate. Many people are allergic to this, particularly those who are allergic to sea food. If you are allergic to this dye, that does not mean that you will be allergic to a simple iodine solution as made below.

The solution I made is essentially 0.1% iodine in water, a concentration that has been shown to be particularly effective. I add potassium iodide, plus isopropyl alcohol, 1%, 1% glycerine and 0.5% mild soap. The glycerine and soap are there to maintain the pH and to make the mix easier on your hands when it dries. I apply 5-10 ml to my hands and let the liquid dry in place.

Robert Buxbaum April 27, 2020; I’m running for water commissioner again. Wishing you a safe and happy lockdown,

How not to make an atom bomb

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There are many books on how the atom bomb was made. They are histories of the great men who succeeded at site Y, Los Alamos, usually with a sidelight of the economics and politics in the US at the time. It’s sometimes noted that there was an equally great German group working too, and one in Japan and in Russia, that they didn’t succeed, but it’s rarely discussed what they did wrong. Nor does anyone make clear why so many US scholars were needed. What did all those great US minds to do? The design seems sort-of obvious; it appears in the note Einstein sent to Roosevelt, so what were all these people thinking about all that time, and why did the Germans fail? By way of answer, let me follow the German approach to this problem, an approach that won’t get you anywhere, or anywhere that I’ve seen.

It seems that everyone knew that making a bomb was possible, that it would be fearsomely powerful, and that it would be made using a chain reaction in uranium or plutonium. Everyone seems to have understood that there must be a critical mass: use less and there is no explosion, use more and there is one. The trick was how to bring enough uranium together make the thing go off, and as a beginning to that, there is the concept of “a barn.” A barn is a very small unit of area = 10−24 cm², and a typical atom has a cross-section of a few barns. Despite this, it is generally thought to be very easy to hit an atom at the nucleus, that is, at the right spot, as easy as hitting the board side of a barn (hence the name). The cross section of a uranium atom is 600 barnes at room temperature, or 6×10−22 cm². But each cubic centimeter of uranium holds .5 x 1023 atoms. Based on this, it comes out that a thermal neutron that enters a 1 cm cube of uranium has a virtual certainty of hitting an atom — there are 3 cm² of atoms in a 1 cm² box. You could hardly miss.

Each uranium atom gives off a lot of energy when hit with a neutron, but neutrons are hard to come by, so a practical bomb would have to involve a seed neutron that hits a uranium atom and releases two or more neutrons along with energy. The next neutron has to hit another nucleus, and it has to releases two or more. As it happens uranium atoms, when hit release on average 2.5 neutrons, so building a bomb seems awfully easy.

But things get more difficult as the neutron speeds get greater, and as the atoms of uranium get hotter. The cross-section of the uranium atom goes down as the temperature goes up. What’s more the uranium atoms start to move apart fast. The net result is that the bomb can blow itself apart before most of the uranium atoms are split. At high speed, the cross -section of a uranium atom decreases to about 5 barnes you thus need a fairly large ball of uranium if you expect that each neutron will hit something. So how do you deal with this. For their first bomb, the American scientists made a 5 kg (about) sphere of plutonium, a man-made uranium substitute, and compressed it with explosives. The explosion had to be symmetrical and very fast. Deciding how fast, and if the design would work required a room full of human “computers”. The German scientists, instead made flat plates of uranium and slowed the neutrons down using heavy water. The heavy water slowed the neutrons, and thus, increased the effective size of the uranium atoms. Though this design seems reasonable, I’m happy to say, it can not ever work well; long before the majority of the reaction takes place, the neutrons get hot, and the uranium atoms fly apart, and you get only a small fraction of the promised bang for your bomb.

How fast do you need to go to get things right? Assume you want to fusion 4 kg of uranium, or 1 x 1025 atoms. In that case, hitting atoms has to be repeated some 83 times. In tech terms, that will take 83 shakes (83 shakes of a lamb’s tail, as it were). This requires getting the ball compressed in the time it takes for a high speed neutron to go 83 x 3 cm= 250 cm. That would seem to require 1 x 10-7 seconds, impossibly fast, but it turns out, you can go somewhat slower. How much slower? It depends, and thus the need for the computers. And how much power do you get? Gram for gram, uranium releases about 10 million times more energy than TNT, but costs hardly more. That’s a lot of bang for the buck.

Robert Buxbaum, Mar 29, 2020.

The power of men’s hats

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Here’s a joke from 3rd grade: why do Indians wear feather headdresses? …… To keep their wig warm. One of the main reasons to wear a hat is to keep your head warm. Men generally wear hats outside only, and mainly to keep warm, or to keep the sun off your eyes. We thus show below a delivery boy in a knitted cap (called at torque in Canada), and a boss is a stylish fedora. The two hats keep the head warm, but the fedora protects the eyes too, and the different styles establish who you are in the social chain. It is a good thing when fashion works this way, and uncool, in my mind, when messages are reversed or unclear. It’s equally uncool to see a delivery boy in a fedora as an executive in a wool cap. Either one looks pretentious to me. One is dressing up, the other dressing down or confused. Women’s hats generally look confused to me, in part because there is no such thing as a real business-woman’s hat.

Photo by Andy Barnham.(previously spelled wrong)

Nowadays, many business men don’t wear hats, even outdoors in the sun and cold. This seems like a bad idea, but what would I know? Perhaps the problem is what to do with the hat when you come indoors. You can take it off, but then what. Emily post claims that leaving the hat on indoors is usually considered rude, though not always, and traces this back to medieval knights and to the flag code. Indoors, the delivery boy can stuff his knit hat into his pocket, or roll it into a smaller version on his head, a beanie. The fedora wearer must look for a hat rack, or accept looking rude.

Of course the lack of a hat presents problems too. Without one, you leave your hair to signal your social status and political cultural associations. For a man without a hat there are only three styles of hair: short, medium, or long. Short hair says you are a conventionalist drone, long hair, that you’re a hippy or artist, and with middle-length hair you’re …. uncertain? trans? androgynous? No matter how you slice it, it’s not a good look. Adding a mustache or beard makes it even more awkward, in my opinion, see below. I have previously written about the power of mustaches — that they send a message that you are warrior, and beards — that you are a man of fervor, — or of religious or aristocratic sympathies. But combine a mustache with middle-length hair and you begin to look like another Hitler or Stalin.

Wearing a hat allows for a great variety of social messaging, whether worn with or without facial hair. Some hats are expensive, others cheap; some signal religious affiliation, others are strongly secular, or hip. Some folks wear hats that are suitable only for work or sports, like a hard-hat, bicycle helmet, or a straw boater. They tell folks you’re busy with an activity right now. But most people who wear hats, choose one that’s multidimensional, suitable for sport and work. There is the classic Kangol cap that suggests a certain artsy vibe, or the peak cap or newsboy — that suggests (I imagine) a higher level of worker.

working man in cap

Perhaps the most popular flex-hats in the US are the baseball hat, and its relative the trucker’s hat (you adjust the size on a truckers hat using a band int he back). In the US, you can wear these on the job, or off. I think they work indoors too, but what do I know. The baseball and peaked cap suggests you are higher on the social ladder than the truckers cap, but all of them suggest you draw a paycheck. And they often say a lot more. If your trucker’s hat says, NRA, or John Deere, or Oakland As, there enough information given to start a conversation. Depending on what your cap says, you will be welcome in some societies, not welcome in others. Don’t wear your MAGA hat to a Biden rally.

There is power in hats too. A man in a policeman’s cap is a cop, even if he’s without the rest of his police gear. With no hat, the same man in uniform is a mall security guard. The postal person or UPS delivery person is on the job if wearing his USPS baseball cap or knit. An expensive visor cap, like the kangol suggest artistic status, and an expensive newsboy, or peaked cap. suggests a sort of work-life balance. It was worn by Prince Charles in the 1980s, and by me in 2020.

Although a fedora is a boss-man’s hat, I never wear one since I associate them with mobsters, hipsters, lounge singers, and Jimmy Hoffa. For more formal occasions, when not wearing a peaked cap, I wear a Homburg. Churchill wore a Homburg. In England, there is a level above this, the top-hat, and one slightly between the Homberg and fedora, the derby. In the US, none of these really caught on. The derby is sort of comic, sort of social climber. Chaplin wore one, as did Laurel and Hardy. Derby hats tend to get punched through in old-time comedies. It’s the same with most middle of the road approaches — they appeal to no one.

Robert Buxbaum, March 5, 2020.

Virus and cancer treatment by your immune system

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There are two standard treatments for a disease. One is through a chemical, pill or shot, often using a patented antibiotic or antiviral molecule, sometimes a radioactive chemical or anti-inflammatory. There have been quite a lot of success with these molecules especially against bacterial disease. E.g. penicillin, a molecule found in cheese, was quite effective against infection, syphilis, and even the viral disease, rabies. Still, in surprisingly many cases, a molecule that you’d expect should cure a disease does not. For this reason, recent research has looked into the other approach to a cure — use your own immune system.

In the most basic version of this approach, that of Paracelcius, is to give the patient nothing beyond sunshine, a clean dressing, and good food. In surprisingly many cases, this is enough to allow the patient’s own immune system will fight the disease successfully. Currently, this seems like our best option to fight COVID-19, the new Wuhan coronavirus.; antivirals seem to have no particular effect on COVID-19, as with rabies, but patients do get better on their own with time, and there is some indication that sunlight helps too, at least in fighting the disease spread, and perhaps in effecting a cure.

Your immune system is remarkably flexible. When it is up to the task, as in the video below white blood cells multiply enormously around the invader and attack. The white cells do not harm your body cells nor those of friendly bacteria, but rally to kill nearly any invader, even one the cells have never seen before. There is a minimum of side effects (fever, tiredness) but these go away after the invader is gone. The immune system then keeps the memory of the invader alive via “Memory T cells” so that it can attack more quickly if the same invader is seen again. This is what we call immunity, and it’s a type of protection that you generally don’t get from pills.

View post on imgur.com

Unfortunately, not every disease is fought well by the immune system alone. Measles, for example, or smallpox. For several of these diseases we’ve found we can activate the patient’s immune system with a vaccination, even after the patient contacts the disease. An injection of a weaker form of the disease seems to help kick-start the patients own immune system. Vaccination tends to have bad side-effects, but for many diseases, e.g. measles, the bad is outweighed by the good. Interestingly we’ve begun to use this approach on some cancers, too, and it seems to work. Immune therapy, it’s called.

Immune therapy is not generally the first line approach to cancer, but it might be the best for slow cancers, like prostate. Generally, in the fight against cancer, the preferred method is to removes as much of cancer cells as possible, and treat any missed cells using a mix of radiation and chemicals. This works but there are a lot of side-effects. Immune therapy is sort of similar, in a way. Instead of irradiating the bad cells inside the body, one takes the cancer cells outside of the body (or the virus molecules) and uses radiation and chemicals to knock off bits. These bits, a weakened form of the cancer or of the virus, are then cultured and re-injected into the body. Sometimes it works, sometimes not. For melanoma, skin cancer, immune therapy is found to works about 1/4 of the time. Why not more? It seems that sometimes the immune system gets “exhausted” fighting a foe that’s to much for it. And sometimes the activated immune system starts attacking the host body. This is an auto-immune response.

Dr. Robert E. Buxbaum, February 21, 2020

COVID-19 is worse than SARS, especially for China.

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The corona virus, COVID-19 is already a lot worse than SARS, and it’s likely to get even worse. As of today, there are 78,993 known cases and 2,444 deaths. By comparison, from the first appearance of SARS about December 1 2002, there have been a total of 8439 cases and 813 deaths. It seems the first COVID-19 patient was also about December 1, but the COVID-19 infection moved much faster. Both are viral infections, but it seems the COVID virus is infectious for more days, including days when the patient is asymptomatic. Quarantine is being used to stop COVID-19; it was successful with SARS. As shown below, by July 2003 SARS had stopped, essentially. I don’t think COVID-19 will stop so easily.

The process of SARS, worldwide; a dramatic rise and it’s over by July 2003. Source: Int J Health Geogr. 2004; 3: 2. Published online 2004 Jan 28. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-3-2.

We see that COVID-19 started in November, like SARS, but we already have 10 times more cases than the SARS total, and 150 times more than we had at this time during the SARS epidemic. If the disease stops in July, as with SARS, we should expect to see about a total of 150 times the current number of cases: about 12 million cases by July 2020. Assuming a death rate of 2.5%, that suggests 1/4 million dead. This is a best case scenario, and it’s not good. It’s about as bad as the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968-69, a pandemic that killed 60,000 approximately in the US, and which remains with us, somewhat today. By the summer of 69, the spreading rate R° (R-naught) fell below 1 for and the disease began to die out, a process I discussed previously regarding measles and the atom bomb, but the disease re-emerged, less infectious the next winter and the next. A good quarantine is essential to make this best option happen, but I don’t believe the Chinese have a good-enough quarantine.

Several things suggest that the Chinese will not be able to stop this disease, and thus that the spread of COVID-19 will be worse than that of the HK flu and much worse than SARS. For one, both those disease centered in Hong Kong, a free, modern country, with resources to spend, and a willingness to trust its citizens. In fighting SARS, HK passed out germ masks — as many as anyone needed, and posted maps of infection showing places where you can go safely and where you should only go with caution. China is a closed, autocratic country, and it has not treated quarantine this way. Little information is available, and there are not enough masks. The few good masks in China go to the police. Health workers are dying. China has rounded up anyone who talks about the disease, or who they think may have the disease. These infected people are locked up with the uninfected in giant dorms, see below. In rooms like this, most of the uninfected will become infected. And, since the disease is deadly, many people try to hide their exposure to avoid being rounded up. In over 80% of COVID cases the symptoms are mild, and somewhat over 1% are asymptomatic, so a lot of people will be able to hide. The more people do this, the poorer the chance that the quarantine will work. Given this, I believe that over 10% of Hubei province is already infected, some 1.5 million people, not the 79,000 that China reports.

Wuhan quarantine “living room”. It’s guaranteed to spread the disease as much as it protects the neighbors.

Also making me think that quarantine will not work as well here as with SARS, there is a big difference in R°, the transmission rate. SARS infected some 2000 people over the first 120 days, Dec. 1 to April 1. Assuming a typical infection time of 15 days, that’s 8 cycles. We calculate R° for this stage as the 8th root of 2000, 8√2000 = 2.58. This is, more or less the number in the literature, and it is not that far above 1. To be successful, the SARS quarantine had to reduce the person’s contacts by a factor of 3. With COVID-19, it’s clear that the transmission rate is higher. Assuming the first case was December 1, we see that there were 73,437 cases in only 80. R° is calculated as the 5 1/3 root of 73,437. Based on this, R° = 8.17. It will take a far higher level of quarantine to decrease R° below 1. The only good news here is that COVID-19 appears to be less deadly than SARS. Based on Chinese numbers the death rate appears to be about 2000/73,437, or about 3%, varying with age (see table), but these numbers are overly high. I believe there are a lot more cases. Meanwhile the death rate for SARS was over 9%. For most people infected with COVID-19, the symptoms are mild, like a cold; for another 18% it’s like the flu. A better estimate for the death rate of COVID-19 is 0.5-1%, less deadly than the Spanish flu of 1918. The death rate on the Diamond Princess was 3/600 = 0.5%, with 24% infected.

The elderly are particularly vulnerable. It’s not clear why.

Backing up my value of R°, consider the case of the first Briton to contact the disease. As reported by CNN, he got it at conference in Singapore in late January. He left the conference, asymptomatic on January 24, and spent the next 4 days at a French ski resort where he infected one person, a child. On January 28, he flew to England where he infected 8 more before checking himself into a hospital with mild symptoms. That’s nine people infected over 3 weeks. We can expect that schools, factories, and prisons will be even more hospitable to transmission since everyone sits together and eats together. As a worst case extrapolation, assume that 20% of the world population gets this disease. That’s 1.5 billion people including 70 million Americans. A 1% death rate suggests we’ll see 700,000 US deaths, and 15 million world-wide this year. That’s almost as bad as the Spanish flu of 1918. I don’t think things will be that bad, but it might be. The again, it could be worse.

If COVID-19 follows the 1918 flu model, the disease will go into semi-remission in the summer, and will re-emerge in the fall to kill another few hundred thousand Americans in the next fall and winter, and the next after that. Woodrow Wilson got the Spanish Flu in the fall of 1918, after it had passed through much of the US, and it nearly killed him. COVID-19 could continue to rampage every year until a sufficient fraction of the population is immune or a vaccine is developed. In this scenario, quarantine will have no long-term effect. My sense is that quarantine and vaccine will work enough in the US to reduce the effect of COVID-19 to that of the Hong Kong flu (1968), so that the death rate will be only 0.1 – 0.2%. In this scenario, the one I think most likely, the US will experience some 100,000 deaths, that is 0.15% of 20% of the population, mostly among the elderly. Without good quarantine or vaccines, China will lose at least 1% of 20% = about 3 million people. In terms of economics, I expect a slowdown in the US and a major problem in China, North Korea, and related closed societies.

Robert Buxbaum, February 18, 2020. (Updated, Feb. 23, I raised the US death totals, and lowered the totals for China).