Beavers, some of the best dam builders

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I ran for water commissioner in 2016 (Oakland county, Michigan; I’ll be running again in 2020), and one of my big issues was improving our rivers. Many are dirty and “flashy”. Shortly after a rain they rise too high and move dangerously fast. At other times, they become, low, smelly, and almost disappear. There are flash floods in these rivers, few fish or frogs, and a major problem with erosion. A big part of a solution, I thought, would be to add few small dams, and to refurbish a few others by adding over-flow or underflow weirs. We had a small dam in the middle of campus at Michigan State University where I’d taught, and I’d seen that it did wonders for river control, fishing, and erosion. The fellow I was running against had been removing small dams in the belief that this made the rivers “more natural”. The Sierra Club thought he was right doing this; the fishing community and some homeowners and MSU alumni thought I was. My problem was that I was a Republican running in a Democratic district. Besides, the county executive, L. Brooks Patterson (also a Republican) was a tightwad. Among my the first stops on my campaign trail was to his office, and while he liked many of my ideas, and promised to support me, he didn’t like the idea of spending money on dams. I suggested, somewhat facetiously, using beavers, and idea that’s grown on me since. I’m still not totally convinced it’s a good idea, but bear with me as I walk you through it.

Red Cedar River dam as seen from behind the Michigan State University Administration Building.

Small dam on the Red Cedar River at Michigan State University behind the Administration Building. The dam provided good fishing and canoeing, and cleaned the water somewhat.

The picture at right shows the dam on the Red Cedar River right behind the Administration building at Michigan State University, looking south. During normal times the dam slows the river flow and raises the water level high enough to proved a good canoe trail, 2 1/2 miles to Okemos. Kids would fish behind the dam, and found it a very good fishing spot. The slow flow meant less erosion, and some pollution control. The speed of flow and the height of the river are related; see calculation here. After a big rain, a standing wave (a “jump”) would set up at the dam, raising its effective height by three or four feet. Students would surf the standing wave. More importantly, the three or four feet of river rise provided retention so that the Red Cedar did little damage. Some picnic area got flooded, but that was a lot better than having a destructive torrent. Here’s some more on the benefits of dams.

Between July 31 and Aug 1 the Clinton River rose nine feet in 3 hours, sending 130,000,000 cubic feet of water and sewage to lake St Clair.

Between July 31 and Aug 1 the Clinton River rose nine feet in 3 hours, sending 130,000,000 cubic feet of water to lake St Clair.

The Sierra club supported (supports) my opponent, in part because he supports natural rivers, without dams. I think they are wrong about this, and about their political support in general. Last night, following a 1 1/2 inch rain, the Clinton River flash flooded, going from 5.2 feet depth to 14 feet depth in just two hours. My sense is that the natural state of our rivers had included beavers and beaver dams until at least the mid 1700s. I figured that a few well-designed dams, similar to those at Michigan State would do wonders to stop this. Among the key locations were Birmingham, on the Rouge, Rochester, near Oakland University, Auburn Hills, and the Clinton River gorge, and near Lawrence Technical University. If we could not afford to build man-made dams, I figured we could seed some beaver into nearby nature areas, and let the beavers dam the rivers for free. It would bring back the natural look of these areas, as in the picture below. And engineers at Lawrence Tech and Oakland University might benefit from seeing the original dam engineers at work.

Beaver dam on a branch of the Huron River. Beavers are some of the best dam builders.

Beaver dam on a branch of the Huron River. A rather professional and attractive job at a bargain price.

Beavers are remarkably diligent. Once they set about a task, they build the basics of a dam in a few days, then slowly improve it like any good craftsman. As with modern dams, beaver dams begin with vertical piles set into the river bottom. Beavers then fill in the dam with cross-pieces, moving as much as 1000 lbs of wood in a night to add to the structure and slow the flow. They then add mud. They use their hearing to detect leaks, and slowly plug the leaks till the dam is suitably tight. Most of the streams I identified are narrow and pass through wooded areas. I think a beaver might dam them in a few days. Based on the amount of wood beavers move, and the fact that beavers are shaped like big woodchucks, I was able to answer the age-old question: how much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood — see my calculation here.

Me, visiting the DNR to talk beavers

Me, visiting the DNR to talk beavers

There are a few things to check out before I start hiring beavers to take care of Oakland county flooding, and I have not checked them all out yet. Beavers don’t necessarily build where you want or as solidly, and sometimes they don’t build at all. If there are no predators, beavers can get lazy and just build a low-water lodge and a high water lodge, moving from one to the other as the river rises and falls. Hiring a beaver is like hiring an artistic contractor, it seems: you don’t necessarily get what you ask for, and sometimes you get more. Given the flash flooding we have, it’s hard to picture they’d make things worse, but what do I know? In some cases, e.g. the Red Run near the 12 towns drain, the need is for more than a beaver can deliver. Still, without beavers, the need would be for a billion gallons of retention on the Clinton alone, a 10 billion dollar project if carried out as my opponent likes to build. So, with no budget to work with, my next stop was at the Department of Natural Resources Customer Service Center (Lansing). I had some nice chats with beaver experts, and I’m happy to say they liked the idea, or at least they were not opposed. I’ve yet to talk to the Michigan director of dams, and will have to see what he has to say, but so far it seems like, if I get elected in 2020, I’ll be looking for some hard-working beavers, willing to relocate. I’d like to leave it to Beaver.

Robert E. Buxbaum, August 2, 2018. I still don’t get the Sierra Club’s idea of what a natural river would look like, or their commitment to Democrats. In my opinion, a river should include beavers, fish, and fishermen, and drainage should be done by whoever can do it best. Sierra club folks are welcomed to comment below.

Less than 1 year to the crash

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Stock market crashes happen for a reason, and generally the reason is that owning stock is seen as less profitable than owning bonds, gold, guns, or hundred-dollar bills stuffed into one’s mattress. For this essay, I thought I might explain the reasoning behind the alarm bells that virtually every economist has been sounding. For the last year and a half they’ve been sure a severe correction is imminent. The reason has to do with price and predictions of profitability.

Let’s begin with Nobel Laureate economist, Paul Krugman of the New York Times. He has been predicting severe job losses, and a permanent stock collapse since Trump’s election in November 2016. Virtually every week he announces that the end is near, and every month the economy looked better. A lesser man would give up, but he has not. Why? Mostly it’s his hatred of all things Trumpian: Krugman can not accept that Trump could avoid destroying the economy, and con not imagine that any investor would see things otherwise.

Apparently some folks felt otherwise, and caused unemployment to drop and the market to rise. but then, in September 2017, Krugman’s dire predictions were echoed by Robert Schiller, 2013 Nobel winner, and author of a textbook the majority of schools use to teach market analysis. Robert Schiller, has argued that valuations are extremely expensive. “This stock market bears striking similarities to that of 1929. “The market is about as highly priced as it was in 1929,” “In 1929 from the peak to the bottom, it was 80 percent down. And the market really wasn’t much higher than it is now in terms of my CAPE [cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings] ratio. So, you give pause when you notice that.”

What Schiller is referring to is his particular version of the price to earnings ratio, the price of the average stock share divided by the amount of the average earnings per share. Schiller’s CAPE version uses the ten-year, inflation-averaged earnings, rather than today’s earnings, and finds the ratio is high, as the graph below shows. When he made these comments, this ratio was 25, nearly as high as the 1929 peak. The ratio is now higher, 32.74, higher than it stood on “Black Tuesday.” Why this number is important is that the profitability of a stock-share is merely the inverse of the Price/ Earnings ratio. The current ratio, 32.74 suggests that the average dollar’s worth of shares will return about 3.05% (1/32.74 = 3.05%). By comparison, one could buy a five-year treasury bond and get 2.96%. That’s hardly less, and federal bonds are totally safe. More alarming yet, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will continue to raise interest rates at planned rate of 1%/year for at least the next year. At some point, people will decide bonds are the far better bargain, and will exit stocks en-mass. And then it’s crash-city, or so the theory goes.

The Schiller Price to Earnings ratio as of July 27, 2018. It suggests a crash is past due.

The Schiller Price to Earnings ratio as of July 27, 2018. It suggests a crash is past due.

Shown above is a historical plot of Schiller’s particular version of the price to earnings ratio based on the S+P 500 index, with data going back to 1880. It’s argued that his version using a ten-year, trailing average of corporate profits, is better than the non-adjusted, one year P/E ratio: the version you find in the newspapers. In the newspaper version, the peaks don’t show up until just after the crash because company profits tend to spike along with prices. In this version, profits can’t exactly spike, and  stock crashes show up as valuation peaks. The crash is seen as a consequence to high values of the Schiller P/E.  In terms of CAPE, we are at a more dangerous spot than in 1929. We are more exuberant than in 2008, or when Alan Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance. Schiller: “you give pause when you notice that.”

Schiller Price to earnings ratios are a good predictor of future stock prices. We are past the end of this chart, suggesting a significant loss of stock value ahead.

Schiller Price to earnings ratio plotted versus 20 year stock return. The higher the Schiller P/E, the lower the return. We are past the end of this chart suggesting we should expect a significant loss of capital value.

Stock pull-backs are sometimes gradual, as in 1968 through 1982, but more often the pullback is sudden, a crash. People typically expect a stock return in excess of bonds of 2% or so. They sometimes accept less, and sometimes demand more. Schiller calls the cause “animal spirits.” The fear is that investors will suddenly go back to the historical norm and demand of stocks 2% more return than the 3.05% they get from bonds. If they’d suddenly demand a 5.05% return on stocks to balance, the stock prices would fall by 40%. If the crash happened now, it would take a 40% drop in stock prices to raise the earnings ratio to 5.05%. But if they wait a year, until after the Fed raised the interest rate to 3.5%, we’d expect a greater pull-back 50% or so, a major crash. As early as last year, Schiller has advised moving out of US stock into foreign stocks, particularly European, noting that the US market was  the most expensive in the world. I don’t agree that Europe is a safe haven, but agree that a crash is likely given current return rates, snd the treasury plan to raise interests by 1% over the next year.

Schiller claims that the reason the recession has not hit so far is that people trust Trump. I would not have expected a comment like that from a Yale economist, especially given the constant carping from the TV news. Still Schiller may be on to something. The stock market went up dramatically after the Trump election. There are some advantages to a narcissist president. It also seems Trump’s tariffs are helping to provide jobs, as I predicted. In this quarter, the GDP rose at an impressive 4.1% rate. Gains came even where you’d expect otherwise. US soybean exports rose by 9600% despite a boycott from China. If the economy keeps going like this it might be as much as a year before the correction. A likely scenario is that the Fed raises interest rates, growth slows to 2.5% or less, and with bond interest rates at 3.5% people will get out of stocks in a big way. My expectation is that China will suffer too, and with it Europe. With luck, the Fed will then lower interest rates to 2%, or so. In my opinion interest rates should matches the inflation rate, more or less. I don’t know why the Federal Reserve does not do this, but instead swings its interest rates from very high to low, now aiming for a far excess of inflation rate. I suspect it’s mistake, one that we will pay for soon.

Robert Buxbaum, July 29, 2018. My only other stock analysis post was on bitcoin, In December 2017 I thought it had gone about as far as it would go. Shortly there-after bitcoin value crashed. I hope I don’t cause a crash

The Great, New York to Paris, Automobile race of 1908.

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As impressive as Lindberg’s transatlantic fight was in 1926, more impressive was George Schuster driving and winning the New York to Paris Automobile race beginning in the dead of winter, 1908, going the long way, through Russia. As of 1908, only nine cars had ever made the trip from Chicago to California, and none had done it in winter, but this race was to go beyond California, to Alaska and then over the ice through Russia and to Paris. Theodore Roosevelt was president, and Americans were up to any challenge. So, on February 12, 1908 there congregated in Times Square, New York, a single, US-made production car, along with five, specially made super-cars from Europe; one each from Italy and Germany; and three from France. The US car, a Thomas Flyer (white), is shown in the picture below. The ER Thomas company sent along George Schuster, as an afterthought: he was a mechanic and test-driver for the company, and was an ex bicycle racer. The main driver was supposed to be Montague Roberts, a dashing sportsmen, but the fellow dropped out in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Schuster reached the Eiffel tower on July 30, 1908, 169 days after leaving New York. The Germans and Italians followed. None of the French super-cars got further than Vladivostok, and one dropped out after less than 100 miles.

The race was sponsored by The New York Times and Le Matin, a Paris newspaper. They offered a large trophy, a cash prize of $1000, not enough to pay for the race, and the prospect of fame. The original plan was for drivers to go from New York to San Francisco, then to Seattle by ship, and Northern Alaska, driving to Russia across the Arctic ice. That plan was abandoned when Schuster, the first driver to reach Alaska, discovered ten foot snows outside of Valdez. The race was modified so that travel to Russia would be by ship. Schuster took his Thomas to Russia from Alaska, the other two drivers reached Russia from Seattle by way of Japan. Schuster was given a bonus of days to account for having taken the longer route. Because of his detour, he was the last to arrive in Russia. From Japan, the route was Vladivostok, Omsk, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Berlin, and Paris, 21,900 miles total; 13,341 miles driven. Schuster drove most of those 13,341 miles, protected by his own .32-caliber pistol, and mostly guided by the stars and a sextant. He’d taught himself celestial navigation as there were no roadmaps, and hardly any roads.

George Schuster driving the Thomas Flyer, the only American entry, and the only production motorcar in the race.

George Schuster driving the Thomas Flyer with another mechanic, George Miller, the Flyer was only American entry, and the only production motorcar in the race. Note that the flag has only 45 stars.

The ship crossing of the Pacific was a good idea given that, even in the dead of winter, global warming meant that the arctic could not be relied upon to be solid ice. As it was, Schuster had to content with crossing the Rockies in deep snow, and crossing Russia in the season of deepest mud. He reached the Eiffel tower at 6 p.m. on July 30, 1908. The German car had arrived in Paris three days ahead of Schuster, but was penalized to second place because the German team had avoided the trip to Alaska, and had traveled some 150 km of the Western US by railroad while Schuster had driven. The Italian team reached Paris months later, in September, 1908. That the win went to the only production car to compete is indicative, perhaps of the reliability that comes with mass production. That Mr. Schuster was not given the fame that Lindberg got may have to do with the small size of the prize, or with him being a mechanic while Lindberg was a “flyer”. Flyers were sexy; even the car was called a flyer. The Times saw fit to hardly mention Schuster at all, and when it did, it spelled his name wrong. Instead the Times headline read, “Thomas Flyer wins New York to Paris Race.” You’d think the car did it on its own, or that the driver was named Thomas Flyer.

The Flyer crossing a swollen river in Manchuria.

Schuster in his Flyer crossing a swollen river in Manchuria.

The Times could not get enough of Montague Roberts; the driver of the first leg was famous and photographic. They tried to get Roberts to drive the last few miles into Paris, “once the roads were good”. And Roberts was the one chosen to drive in the hero-parade in New York, Schuster rode too, but didn’t drive. Schuster was feted by Theodore Roosevelt, though, who said he liked people “who did things.” Schuster said he’d never do a race like that again, and he never did race again.

The race did wonders for the reputation of American automobiles, and greatly spurred the desire for roads, but it did little or nothing for the E.R.Thomas company. Thomas cars were high cost, high power models, and they lost out in the marketplace to Henry Ford’s, low-cost Model T’s. You’d think that, in the years leading up to WWI, the US Army might buy a high cost, high reliability car, but they were not interested, and the Thomas company did little to capitalize on their success. The Flyer design that won the race was discontinued. It was a 60 hp, straight 4 cylinder engine version, replaced by lower cost Flyers with 3 cylinders and 24 hp. Shortly after that, Edwin R. Thomas, decided to drop the Flyer altogether. His company went bankrupt in 1912, and was bought by Empire Smelting. The original Flyer was sold in 1913 at a bankruptcy action, lot #1829, “Famous New York to Paris Racer.”

ER Thomas went on to found another car company, as was the style in those days. Thomas-Detroit went on make similar cars to the Flyer, but cheaper. The largest, the K-30, was only 30 hp. The original Thomas Flyer is now in the National Automobile Museum, Reno Nevada. after being identified by Schuster and restored. Here is a video showing the original Flyer being driven by a grandson of George Schuster. There is a lower-power Thomas Flyer (black) in a back space of the Henry Ford museum (Detroit). Protos vehicles, similar to the one that came in second, were produced for the German military through WWI. Their manufacturer, Siemens, benefited, as did the German driver.

Advertisement for the Protos Automobile, a product of Siemens motor company. The race did not include a production Protos but one made specially for the race.

Advertisement for the Protos Automobile, a product of Siemens motor company. The race did not include a production Protos but one made specially for the race.

The Thomas engine (and the Protos) engine) live on in a host of cars with water-cooled, four-cylinder, straight engines. In 1922, Chalmers-Detroit merged with Maxwell and continued to produce versions of the old Flyer design, now with an internal drive-shaft. The original Flyer was powered via a gear-chain, like a bicycle. In 1928, Maxwell was sold to Chrysler. Chrysler persists in calling their high-power, four-cylinder engines by the name Chalmers. As for Schuster, when ER Thomas closed its doors, he had still not been paid for his time as a race driver. He went to work for Pierce-Arrow, another maker of large, heavy vehicles. The “cheaper by the dozen” family (two parents, 12 kids) drove a Pierce-Arrow.

The Great race appears in two documentaries and two general audience movies, both comedies. The first of these was Mishaps of the New York–Paris Race, released by Georges Méliès, July 1908, just about as the Flyer was entering Paris. The second movie version  “The Great Race” was released in 1965. It’s one of my favorite movies, with Jack Lemon as the Protos driver (called Dr. Fate in the movie), Tony Curtis as “The Great Leslie”, the Flyer driver. For the movie, the Flyer is called “The Leslie”, and with Natalie Wood as a female reporter who rides along and provides the love interest. In the actual race reporters from the New York Times, male, traveled in the Flyer’s rear seat sending stories back by carrier pigeon.

Path of the Great Race

Path of the Great Race

As a bit of fame, here’s George Schuster in 1958 on “What’s my secret.” He was 85, and no one knew of him or the race. Ten years later, in 1968, Schuster finally received his $1000 prize, but still no fame. A blow-by-blow of the race can be found here, in Smithsonian magazine. There is also an article about the race in The New York Times, February 10, 2008. This article includes only two pictures, a lead picture showing one of the French cars, and another showing Jeff  Mahl, the grandson of George Schuster, and a tiny bit of the flyer. Why did the New York Times choose these pictures? My guess is it’s the same reason that they reported as they did in 1908: The French car looked better than the Flyer, and Jeff Mahl looked better than George Schuster.

Robert Buxbaum, July 20, 2018. What does all this mean, I’ve wondered as I wrote this essay. There were so many threads, and so many details. After thinking a bit, my take is that the movie versions were right. It was all a comedy. Life becomes a comedy when the wrong person wins, or the wrong vehicle does. A simple mechanic working for a failing auto company beat great drivers and super cars, surpassing all sorts of obstacles that seem impossible to surpass. That’s comedy, It’s for this reason that Dante’s Divine Comedy is a comedy. When we see things like this we half-choose to disbelieve, and we half-choose to laugh, and because we don’t quite believe, very often we don’t reward the winner as happened to Schuster for the 60 years after the race. Roberts should have won, so we’ll half-pretend he did.

The wealth of nations in beer

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We generally compare the wealth of nations in dollars per capita, but this is a false comparison. You can not eat dollars, and even if dollars can be exchanged for products or other countries’ currencies with minimum cost, the same is not true for their products. A sack of rice in America costs more than in India; you can not easily buy it at the Indian price. Nonetheless we generally measure the wealth of a county as if all products cost the same everywhere. Based on this, we declare that the citizens of Lichtenstein are the richest on the planet, followed by Norway and Denmark. US citizens not far behind, vastly richer than the people of Africa who we picture living on pennies per day. But pennies in Africa buy more than pennies in America; wealth is spent locally, and things are expensive where people have money.

GDP for various countries in pints of beer per person per year in main city bar or restaurant

GDP for various countries in pints of beer per person per year in main city bar or restaurant

To correct for this local value of money effect, some economists modify consider the ratio of per-capita GDP by relation to the cost of a basket of goods. This is called purchasing power parity, or ppp. By this measure, American’s are not as much richer than Africans, but the problem remains that people don’t all buy the same basket of goods. The Economist magazine has thus suggested correcting ppp by choosing a single consumable, the MacDonald’s Big Mac, a standard product available world-wide. The Economist’s “Big Mac Index” is quite good in my opinion, but it could be better, and I decided to make it better by using beer instead of Big Macs.

It strikes me that typical Africans don’t eat Big Macs — the price is out of range. Meanwhile, in rich countries mostly it’s the poor who eat MacDonald’s (and Donald Trump). The advantage of using beer to measure the wealth of nations is it’s something most-everyone consumes across all social strata. A country is wealthy in terms of many pints of beer a person can buy based on his or her, per-capita GDP.

Shown at left is the top countries from a table I made by dividing the GDP per capita by the price of a pint (or half-liter) of local beer as served in a tavern or restaurant of the major city. Measured this way I find Lichtenstein is still the richest country on earth, now followed by Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic. Norway is no longer among the richest countries — beer is expensive there, as is labor. The Czech Republic, normally considered a middle-to-poor country, is number 3 because of the low cost of its excellent beer. The US is several stages down, just below Denmark, and barely above Hungary and Kazakhstan. The socialist countries: Russia, Cuba, and Venezuela are as poor in beer as they are in dollars. Socialism distributes wealth without creating it.

Number of beers one can buy on a month's minimum wage in Europe

Number of beers one can buy on a month’s minimum wage in Europe, by Reddit:adilu.

By now you’re wondering about my use of per-capita GDP. Perhaps a better comparison — one where socialism looks better would involve the minimum wage. At right I show a map of Europe in terms of the number of beers one can buy per month based on 40 hour weeks at the minimum wage. Several countries are greyed out: Italy, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Lichtenstein, etc. These are mostly rich countries bu have no minimum wage. Based on the data, Belgium’s working classes are the best off, with Ireland and England not far behind. Germany’s workers look like they are doing well, but they don’t really have a minimum wage (the chart, by Reddit editor adieu assumes one based on a proposal). The United States’s minimum worker is poorer in beer (327/month) based on a minimum wage of $7.85 and an average cost of beer about $4/pint (bar + supermarket). He is richer than the French, Poles, Italians, Norwegians, Danes, Austrians and Swedes in beer, and better off than the Turks and Russians too. It’s clear that high minimum wages harm community wealth and job prospects. Though some at the bottom of the work scale are left dry at the bar.

Robert Buxbaum, July 18, 2018. I write these blogs to help me think. If you’d like to see more of the wealth of nations in beer, I’ll be happy to provide.

Trump, tariffs, and the national debt

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My previous post was about US foreign policy, Obama’s and Trumps. This one is about Trump’s domestic policy as I see it. The main thing I see, the pattern is that I think he’s trying to do is pay down the national debt while increasing employment. So far unemployment is down, but borrowing is not. I suspect that a major reason for the low unemployment is that Americans (particularly black Americans) are taking jobs that used to be held by Mexicans. As for US borrowing, it’s still bad. For his first budget, Trump, like all other recent politicians caved to the forces that favor borrow and spend than to pay back. In this century, only Wm. McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, Taft, Harding, and Coolidge managed to pay down the national debt. But only one man, Andrew Jackson, managed to pay it off completely. Jackson’s picture hangs in the pride of place in the Trump white house, something that I find significant. I suspect that Trump’s tariffs and spats are intended to pay down the debt without raising unemployment, or weakening the military. Andrew Jackson is his idea of “Make America Great Again.”

All recent presidents have raised the national debt. Trump claims he will shrink it.

All recent presidents have raised the national debt. Trump data to April 20, 2018.

As the graph above shows, if Trump plan is to pay down the debt, he is not succeeding. Trump is overspending — at a somewhat slower rate than other recent presidents, but in 1 1/4 year he’s increased the debt by 6.3%, about $1220 B. He’s saved a few billion by reduced payments to the UN, and to the EU for climate studies, and he’s asking NATO to pay more for Europe’s defense, but he’ll have to do a lot more, and the rest of the world is already unhappy with him.

Many US economists — Keynesians – are not happy with him for another reason. They claim that debt is good, and that borrowing increases employment. As proof they note that FDR borrowed and spent heavily though the 1930s,and we got out of the depression. Other economists point out that it took longer in the US to get out of the depression than in many other countries. More recently, under Jimmy Carter, deficit spending created a combination of high inflation and high unemployment, “stagflation,” suggesting that Keynes should be modified to “Neo Keynesians” who claim you can overspend if you don’t outspend the GDP growth rate. Sorry to say, even in these terms, Obama and GW Bush overspent badly, as did Reagan before them (see graph below). Obama raised the debt from 65% of the GDP to its current 105%, and GW Bush raised it from 50% of GDP to 65%. This borrowing did not increase employment, or raise the standard of living for most Americans, though several at the top became fabulously wealthy. As Alan Greenspan noted, “If national borrowing was a path to wealth, Zimbabwe would be the richest country on earth.” I’m more of a hard money man, as Greenspan was, inclined to think that a balanced budget is good, and that tariffs are good too.

Ratio of US government debt to GDP

Ratio of US government debt to GDP

As of June 1, 2018, Trump has imposed ~20% tariffs on five items: wood, steel, aluminum, washing machines, and solar panels. Combined, these items constitute 4.1% of our imports, $130 B/ year. Taxed at 20%, the US will collect $25 B/year. it’s a step, but I suspect that Trump knows that, if tariffs are to wipe out all of our deficit, he’ll have to impose a lot more, about 40% on all of our imports ($3,100 B/year). Trump may yet do this, and may yet cut spending, and put a lot more America to work. My sense is that this is his aim.

The next step in the Trump MAGA plan involves adding another $35B to the list of items being taxed; that’s about 1.1% of US imports (5.2% total). In response, our trade-partners have complained to the press and to the world court, and have imposed their own tariffs — so far on about $100 B of US products, mostly food items, like bourbon and cheese, chosen to hit Republicans in politically – sensitive states: Tennessee and Wisconsin. Canada now taxes US cheese at over 100%. It’s an effort to embarrass Trump and get Democrats elected in 2018. If these tactics don’t work, Trump will impose another round, e.g. on foreign-made cars and motorcycles. I’d also expect him to cut NATO funding unilaterally, too, as a counter-slap to the EU.

US unemployment by race

US unemployment by race, data to May 2018.

Speaking of Keynesian economists, Nobel Laureate economist, Paul Krugman of the New York Times has been predicting severe job losses, and a permanent stock collapse since 2016, and especially following Trump’s election. Virtually every week he announces that the end is near, and every month the economy looks better. But he’s not deterred, and neither are most economists. In a survey of nearly 100 economists by Reuters, 80% said that Trump’s policies will hurt the U.S. economy, and the rest said there would be little or no effect.[1] . So far it looks like they are all wrong. Unemployment is at record lows, particularly for African-Americans (see chart above); we’re adding new jobs at the rate of 200,000 new jobs per month, nearly 0.8% of the population per year. Inflation is a modest 2.3%, GDP growth is excellent, at 3.2% (or an incredible 4.5%). All we need now is a sensible immigration policy plus some healthcare reform, a modified social security tax, and for the economy to stay this way for another 5-10 years. It’s unlikely, but that’s the plan.

Robert Buxbaum, July 5, 2018. I’d hoped to see the employment and deficit numbers for June by now, but it’s not out. I’ve also argued that free trade is half right, as there is a benefit to workers, And there is a certain greatness that comes from paying your bills. Today, the EU offered to lower some auto tariffs if Trump does not move forward.

Wilsonian Obama vs the Trump Doctrine

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As best I see it, Obama’s approach to world peace was a version of Woodrow Wilson’s: he consistently supported left-leaning, popular groups and governments, even when they were anti-American over pro-American kings, generals, and dictators. Obama heaped money and praise on elected leaders of Iran and the Palestinian Authority, while condemning Israel, and encouraging Democrats to walk out of a speech its PM. He then sent a statement to be read on the floor of congress that the Israeli PM  had nothing to say. Similarly, Obama refused to negotiate with Kim Jung Un of North Korea, a dictator in his eyes, but he had no problem with Raul Castro. Leftists, in his view, were for the masses, and thus democratic. Such democrats were on the side of the angels in his view, though Castro’s Cuba was not exactly free.

The co-head of the Democratic Party wears a shirt that reads "I don't believe in borders." It's a Moslem Brotherhood slogan. They do not believe in borders between Gaza and Israel, but do believe in them between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The co-head of the Democratic Party wears a shirt that reads “I don’t believe in borders.” It’s a globalist slogan, a Moslem Brotherhood slogan. The Trump doctrine requires boundaries between ‘turf.”

One of the most popular, if violent groups on the world stage was (is) the Moslem Brotherhood. A few months after becoming president, he gave his first foreign speech at Cairo University,  making the Wilsonian request to include the Brotherhood here and in all further negotiations. The Moslem Brotherhood was anti-American and left leaning, and they favored elections. On the other hand, they had assassinated Egyptian president Anwar el-Sadat and Egyptian prime minister Mohammad Pasha just a few years previous. They had also tried to overthrow the government of Egypt and Jordan by force, and had tried to assassinate Egyptian president Nasser and Jordan’s kings Abdullah and Hussein, unsuccessfully. Including the Brotherhood was symptomatic of a general problem of Wilsonian diplomacy; it provides no good way to tell the good guys from the bad without putting them in power. Some hints: the Brotherhood afforded no rights to women or gays; they had no clear distinctions from Hezbollah, Hamas, or Al Qaeda; and they were anti-American and anti Israel to the extent that they shouted death to both.

Even though the Moslem Brotherhood was Sunni-Moslem, a fair number in the mid-east cane to claim that Obama had included them because he was a Shiite Moslem, and just using them to overthrow more-stable Sunni governments of Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Here’s a bit from an Iraqi MP, and from Saudi TV making this claim. Here too is a joke about Sunni and Shia to help you keep the two groups straight. Whatever his motivation, the outcome was the so-called Arab Spring (2011) uprisings that overthrew pro-American regimes in Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and Turkey. It also brought the end of a free press in Turkey, and trouble for pro-American regimes in Bahrain, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. After the Brotherhood murdered the American ambassador in Libya and his (few) US guards, Obama blamed the death on some Jewish film-makers. My sense is that Obama was unwilling to believe that a fellow leftist of the Brotherhood would lie to him and murder our ambassador just to get at billions of dollars of Libya’s oil.

Trump, his daughter, el Sisi, and the King of Saudi Arabia. No Emir of Qatar.

Trump, Melania, the King of Saudi Arabia, and  el-Sisi of Egypt at a meeting in Riyadh with other friendly leaders; no Emir of Qatar, no Muslim Brotherhood.

Wilson lived to see the Mid-east parts of his 14 points lead to disaster in country after country (those were points V, XI, and XII for the Woody Woo fans). Obama similarly backed Kurdish and Hezbollah “moderates” only to see them turn sides and fight one another, or fight against our ally Turkey, or join together and form ISIS. He backed Palestinians in Gaza too, and saw them murder gays and suspected traitors on TV. He supported “moderate” Turkey, and found his Turkish allies killing his Kurds. Obama fueled a murderous tribal war, like Wilson had done, based on the best of intentions, and an American naiveté about how the world works.

Closer to home, at the very end of Obama’s presidency, he ended the registry of the National Security Entry-Exit System (NSEERS) intended to track terrorists. He closed this border program because it was racist in his view. Most of the illegals caught were Moslems or brown-skinned. Republicans seem to agree that a border-security program like this is problematic, especially where children are involved, but they claim it is better than letting in terrorists, or criminals, or the occasional human trafficker. Lacking anyone with a better answer, they elected Donald Trump, a man who claimed he’d bring peace by building a wall.

Trump made his first mideast speech in Saudi Arabia, but unlike Obama, he invited only pro-American, authoritarian leaders. He left out the Muslim Brotherhood and the rulers of any “republican” government that chanted “Death to America.” Trump announced that the US will not dictate how leaders should run their countries, or how people in these countries should live. Instead, we would be a friend to our friends, and that we would mediate disputes where necessary and helpful. There was also a threat against “bad guys” understood to be the enemies of America.

This “Trump doctrine” seems (to me) to have been borrowed from Charles (Lucky) Luciano, a New York mob boss who kept peace between the various mob families of New York and New Jersey by keeping the territories separate and clear (similar to Trump’s wall). Luciano allowed the various family heads to do what they wanted on their own turf, and offered to mediate disputes (see the similarity?). He also treated to hit those who hit him, and he took no guff. So far, Trump’s version of this seems to be working. The mideast is far calmer than when Obama was president, perhaps because its leaders understand Trump better, and Trump may have negotiated an end to the Korean war. Wilsonian Democrats (Obama) claimed that you can’t negotiate with a murderous thug like Kim Jung Un, but Trump has no problem — they both like walls. Besides, Trump points out that the alternative is nuclear war.

I suspect that Trump is hated by the Europeans is the comparison with Obama. Obama spent our money liberally, on them and on their issues, while Trump does not. A thought: if the Europeans think a president is spending enough, he's spending too much.

Obama spent our money liberally on the Europeans while Trump does not. A thought: if the Europeans think you spend enough, you’re spending too much.

How does Trump hit back? For one, he refuses to serve as free protector for those who can defend themselves. Trump has threatened Germany saying they must pay for their own defense, and has cut funding to the UN Human Rights commission and the Paris climate council, groups he considers pointless or worse. More recently, he ended Obama’s constraints on natural gas exploration and exports. In 2017 US gas exports rose by $4B, a factor of four from 2016, dramatically lowering the price of natural gas on the open market. Several oil nations were hit by this including Qatar the main gas exporter in 2014 (Russia is now) and a main funder of Al Jazeera, and of Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Robert Buxbaum, June 26, 2018. I’ve never understood why people expect Marxist leaders to be peaceful. Marx himself claims that the mode of production determines a country’s social, political and intellectual life. A leader hoping to control the latter must control the former with a war-like ferocity if he’s to be a Marxist, and even the most milk-toast Marxists have done so.

Isotopic effects in hydrogen diffusion in metals

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For most people, there is a fundamental difference between solids and fluids. Solids have long-term permanence with no apparent diffusion; liquids diffuse and lack permanence. Put a penny on top of a dime, and 20 years later the two coins are as distinct as ever. Put a layer of colored water on top of plain water, and within a few minutes you’ll see that the coloring diffuse into the plain water, or (if you think the other way) you’ll see the plain water diffuse into the colored.

Now consider the transport of hydrogen in metals, the technology behind REB Research’s metallic  membranes and getters. The metals are clearly solid, keeping their shapes and properties for centuries. Still, hydrogen flows into and through the metals at a rate of a light breeze, about 40 cm/minute. Another way of saying this is we transfer 30 to 50 cc/min of hydrogen through each cm2 of membrane at 200 psi and 400°C; divide the volume by the area, and you’ll see that the hydrogen really moves through the metal at a nice clip. It’s like a normal filter, but it’s 100% selective to hydrogen. No other gas goes through.

To explain why hydrogen passes through the solid metal membrane this way, we have to start talking about quantum behavior. It was the quantum behavior of hydrogen that first interested me in hydrogen, some 42 years ago. I used it to explain why water was wet. Below, you will find something a bit more mathematical, a quantum explanation of hydrogen motion in metals. At REB we recently put these ideas towards building a membrane system for concentration of heavy hydrogen isotopes. If you like what follows, you might want to look up my thesis. This is from my 3rd appendix.

Although no-one quite understands why nature should work this way, it seems that nature works by quantum mechanics (and entropy). The basic idea of quantum mechanics you will know that confined atoms can only occupy specific, quantized energy levels as shown below. The energy difference between the lowest energy state and the next level is typically high. Thus, most of the hydrogen atoms in an atom will occupy only the lower state, the so-called zero-point-energy state.

A hydrogen atom, shown occupying an interstitial position between metal atoms (above), is also occupying quantum states (below). The lowest state, ZPE is above the bottom of the well. Higher energy states are degenerate: they appear in pairs. The rate of diffusive motion is related to ∆E* and this degeneracy.

A hydrogen atom, shown occupying an interstitial position between metal atoms (above), is also occupying quantum states (below). The lowest state, ZPE is above the bottom of the well. Higher energy states are degenerate: they appear in pairs. The rate of diffusive motion is related to ∆E* and this degeneracy.

The fraction occupying a higher energy state is calculated as c*/c = exp (-∆E*/RT). where ∆E* is the molar energy difference between the higher energy state and the ground state, R is the gas constant and T is temperature. When thinking about diffusion it is worthwhile to note that this energy is likely temperature dependent. Thus ∆E* = ∆G* = ∆H* – T∆S* where asterisk indicates the key energy level where diffusion takes place — the activated state. If ∆E* is mostly elastic strain energy, we can assume that ∆S* is related to the temperature dependence of the elastic strain.

Thus,

∆S* = -∆E*/Y dY/dT

where Y is the Young’s modulus of elasticity of the metal. For hydrogen diffusion in metals, I find that ∆S* is typically small, while it is often typically significant for the diffusion of other atoms: carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur…

The rate of diffusion is now calculated assuming a three-dimensional drunkards walk where the step lengths are constant = a. Rayleigh showed that, for a simple cubic lattice, this becomes:

D = a2/6τ

a is the distance between interstitial sites and t is the average time for crossing. For hydrogen in a BCC metal like niobium or iron, D=

a2/9τ; for a FCC metal, like palladium or copper, it’s

a2/3τ. A nice way to think about τ, is to note that it is only at high-energy can a hydrogen atom cross from one interstitial site to another, and as we noted most hydrogen atoms will be at lower energies. Thus,

τ = ω c*/c = ω exp (-∆E*/RT)

where ω is the approach frequency, or the amount of time it takes to go from the left interstitial position to the right one. When I was doing my PhD (and still likely today) the standard approach of physics writers was to use a classical formulation for this time-scale based on the average speed of the interstitial. Thus, ω = 1/2a√(kT/m), and

τ = 1/2a√(kT/m) exp (-∆E*/RT).

In the above, m is the mass of the hydrogen atom, 1.66 x 10-24 g for protium, and twice that for deuterium, etc., a is the distance between interstitial sites, measured in cm, T is temperature, Kelvin, and k is the Boltzmann constant, 1.38 x 10-16 erg/°K. This formulation correctly predicts that heavier isotopes will diffuse slower than light isotopes, but it predicts incorrectly that, at all temperatures, the diffusivity of deuterium is 1/√2 that for protium, and that the diffusivity of tritium is 1/√3 that of protium. It also suggests that the activation energy of diffusion will not depend on isotope mass. I noticed that neither of these predictions is borne out by experiment, and came to wonder if it would not be more correct to assume ω represent the motion of the lattice, breathing, and not the motion of a highly activated hydrogen atom breaking through an immobile lattice. This thought is borne out by experimental diffusion data where you describe hydrogen diffusion as D = D° exp (-∆E*/RT).

Screen Shot 2018-06-21 at 12.08.20 AM

You’ll notice from the above that D° hardly changes with isotope mass, in complete contradiction to the above classical model. Also note that ∆E* is very isotope dependent. This too is in contradiction to the classical formulation above. Further, to the extent that D° does change with isotope mass, D° gets larger for heavier mass hydrogen isotopes. I assume that small difference is the entropy effect of ∆E* mentioned above. There is no simple square-root of mass behavior in contrast to most of the books we had in grad school.

As for why ∆E* varies with isotope mass, I found that I could get a decent explanation of my observations if I assumed that the isotope dependence arose from the zero point energy. Heavier isotopes of hydrogen will have lower zero-point energies, and thus ∆E* will be higher for heavier isotopes of hydrogen. This seems like a far better approach than the semi-classical one, where ∆E* is isotope independent.

I will now go a bit further than I did in my PhD thesis. I’ll make the general assumption that the energy well is sinusoidal, or rather that it consists of two parabolas one opposite the other. The ZPE is easily calculated for parabolic energy surfaces (harmonic oscillators). I find that ZPE = h/aπ √(∆E/m) where m is the mass of the particular hydrogen atom, h is Plank’s constant, 6.63 x 10-27 erg-sec,  and ∆E is ∆E* + ZPE, the zero point energy. For my PhD thesis, I didn’t think to calculate ZPE and thus the isotope effect on the activation energy. I now see how I could have done it relatively easily e.g. by trial and error, and a quick estimate shows it would have worked nicely. Instead, for my PhD, Appendix 3, I only looked at D°, and found that the values of D° were consistent with the idea that ω is about 0.55 times the Debye frequency, ω ≈ .55 ωD. The slight tendency for D° to be larger for heavier isotopes was explained by the temperature dependence of the metal’s elasticity.

Two more comments based on the diagram I presented above. First, notice that there is middle split level of energies. This was an explanation I’d put forward for quantum tunneling atomic migration that some people had seen at energies below the activation energy. I don’t know if this observation was a reality or an optical illusion, but present I the energy picture so that you’ll have the beginnings of a description. The other thing I’d like to address is the question you may have had — why is there no zero-energy effect at the activated energy state. Such a zero energy difference would cancel the one at the ground state and leave you with no isotope effect on activation energy. The simple answer is that all the data showing the isotope effect on activation energy, table A3-2, was for BCC metals. BCC metals have an activation energy barrier, but it is not caused by physical squeezing between atoms, as for a FCC metal, but by a lack of electrons. In a BCC metal there is no physical squeezing, at the activated state so you’d expect to have no ZPE there. This is not be the case for FCC metals, like palladium, copper, or most stainless steels. For these metals there is a much smaller, on non-existent isotope effect on ∆E*.

Robert Buxbaum, June 21, 2018. I should probably try to answer the original question about solids and fluids, too: why solids appear solid, and fluids not. My answer has to do with quantum mechanics: Energies are quantized, and always have a ∆E* for motion. Solid materials are those where ω exp (-∆E*/RT) has unit of centuries. Thus, our ability to understand the world is based on the least understandable bit of physics.

Survey on hydrogen use

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My company makes hydrogen generators: devices that make ultra-pure hydrogen on demand from methanol and water using a membrane reactor. If you use hydrogen, please fill out the following survey. I need to know my customers needs better, e.g. so that I will know if I should add a compressor. Thanks.

Create your own user feedback survey

Robert Buxbaum, June 13, 2018

Sex differences in addiction.

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Men become addicted and so do women, but the view in popular movies and songs present some clear differences. Addicted men are presented as drunks or stoners. By contrast, the popular picture of an addicted woman is a middle-aged housewife who takes “mother’s little helper“: anti-depressant and pain pills, “mother’s little helper of the classic Rolling Stones song. Male addicts are presented to take their drugs in the company of friends while female addicts are pictured taking their pills in private. A question I have: is there any evidence to back these popular perceptions.

All addiction may not be bad. Though Churchill was addicted to drink, he imagined it as a virtue not a vice.

Not all who are addicted consider their addiction a liability. Though Churchill was addicted to drink, starting the day with a tumbler of whiskey, he imagined it as a virtue. One would be hard-pressed to prove otherwise.

As it happens, if you look at the statistics in a certain way, they do bear out the popular perceptions. About three times as many men as women are in treatment for alcohol or pot, voluntary or court-mandated. Meanwhile, as a percentage of the addicted, women are nearly twice as likely as men to claim pills as their primary addiction. Percentage data is plotted below. The problem with the percentage graph is that it ignores the fact that twice as many men as women are in treatment: 1,233,000 men vs 609,000 women, as of 2011. Multiply the total numbers by the percentages and you find that there are more men than women with primary addiction to pills, or to cocaine, heroin, or meth-amphetamines. For any drug you mention, the real sex-difference is that more men are addicts.

It could be argues that rehab attendance is a bad measure of addiction, but I would argue that this is the best measure, not only are the numbers are more accurate, rehab is an indication that the addict feels that his or her addiction is a problem. It is a mistake, I think, to include people who feel their addiction is not ruining their lives with people who do not, e.g. Churchill. Any person who believes he or she is benefiting, and who has managed to avoid running afoul of the police, it could be argued, does not have a serious problem. Friends and employers may disagree in terms of diagnosis, but in terms of statistics, other measures like self-reporting come to the same conclusion: if it’s a stupid addiction, more men do it than women. Men self-report that they smoke more, binge-drink more, and use drugs more. Men also commit suicide more and end up in jail more.

Main addiction of men and women. percent based on rehab records, 2011. From the TEDS Report 4/3/14. Twice as many men as women go to rehab.

Main addiction of men and women. percent based on rehab records, 2011. From the TEDS Report on substance abuse. 4/3/14. The most significant sex difference, as I see it: twice as many men as women go to rehab.

In terms of age of prescription drug use, the graph below shows a difference between men and women. There is a slight tendency for women to persist with prescription drugs, but that may reflect the tendency for men to move on to some other stupid behavior.

While more female than male addicts consider opioids their main addiction, since there are twice as many male addicts as female, it comes out that the number using opioids is about the same. Interestingly, a greater fraction of men seem capable of switching out from opioids -- likely to some other addiction.

While more female than male addicts consider opioids their main addiction, since there are twice as many male addicts as female, it comes out that the number using opioids is about the same. A greater fraction of men switch out from opioids, perhaps to another addiction. Source: ibid.

A few cheerful bits of news are in order. One is that smoking, the most deadly of the addictions, is on the decline. It seems like vaping is a contributor to this, and much safer. Similarly, with illicit drug addictions, while use is on the upswing, and while an amazingly large share of Americans have used such drugs — see graph below from Statista — only a small fraction remain users into middle age. Most seem to quit on their own — they even seem to quit heroin when it ceases to serve a purpose. At present, only 60,000/year total die of overdose out of some 120,000,000 who’ve used illicit drugs. Ringo Starr’s song, “I don’t smoke it no more“may be cited, especially when paired with his “Oh my my” song about quitting through dance. If you want to quit and dance doesn’t work for you, I’d suggest AA or NA. To quote Ringo: “You can do it if you try.”

Number of people in the US using different drugs as of 2016. The vast majority have not used in the last year.

Number of people in the US who have used different illegal drugs as of 2016. It’s about 1/3 of America. The vast majority from every category have quit, and are not using. 89% of heroin uses have quit. You can too. Statista.

As for why men more than women do drugs, all I can say is that they do all sorts of stupid things. They fight in wars more often, they go over Niagara Falls in barrels more often, and they start new businesses more often. Sometimes it works for them; usually not. Here is a more detailed article with the same semi-conclusion: men are stupid, risk takers. I suspect that’s their language of love.

Robert Buxbaum, June 11, 2018

Most traffic deaths are from driving too slow

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About 40,100 Americans lose their lives to traffic accidents every year. About 10,000 of these losses involve alcohol, and about the same number involve pedestrians, but far more people have their lives sucked away by waiting in traffic, IMHO. Hours are spent staring at a light, hoping it will change, or slowly plodding between destinations with their minds near blank. This slow loss of life is as real as the accidental type, but less dramatic.

Consider that Americans drive about 3.2 trillion miles each year. I’ll assume an average speed of 30 mph (the average speed registered on my car is 29 mph). Considering only the drivers of these vehicles, I calculate 133 billion man-hours of driving per year; that’s 15.2 million man-years or 217,000 man-lifetimes. If people were to drive a little faster, perhaps 10% faster, some 22,000 man lifetimes would be saved per year in time wasted. The simple change of raising the maximum highway speed to 80 mph from 70, I’d expect, would save half this, maybe 10,000 lifetimes. There would likely be some more accidental deaths, but not more accidents. Tiredness is a big part of highway accidents, as is highway congestion. Faster speeds decreases both, decreasing the number of accidents, but one expects there will be an increase in the deadliness of the accidents.

Highway deaths for the years before and after Nov. 1995. Most states raised speeds, but some left them unchanged.

Highway deaths for the years before and after speed limit were relaxed in Nov. 1995. At that time most states raised their speed limits, but some did not, leaving them at 65 rural, 55 urban; a few states were not included in this study because they made minor changes.

A counter to this expectation comes from the German Autobahn, the fastest highway in the world with sections that have no speed limit. German safety records show that there are far fewer accidents per km on the Autobahn, and that the fatality rate per km is about 1/3 that on other stretches of highway. This is about 1/2 the rate on US highways (see safety comparison). For a more conservative comparison, we could turn to the US experience of 1995. Before November 1995, the US federal government limited urban highway speeds to 55 mph, with 65 mph allowed only on rural stretches. When these limits were removed, several states left the speed limits in place, but many others raised their urban speed limits to 65 mph, and raised rural limits to 70 mph. Some western states went further and raised rural speed limits to 75 mph. The effect of these changes is seen on the graph above, copied from the Traffic Operations safety laboratory report. Depending on how you analyze the data, there was either a 2% jump (institute of highway safety) in highway deaths or perhaps a 5% jump. These numbers translate to a 3 or 6% jump because the states that did not raise speeds saw a 1% drop in death rates. Based on a 6% increase, I’d expect higher highway speed limits would cost some 2400 additional lives. To me, even this seems worthwhile when balanced against 10,000 lives lost to the life-sucking destruction of slow driving.

Texas has begun raising speed limits. Texans seem happy.

Texas has begun raising speed limits. So far, Texans seem happy.

There are several new technologies that could reduce automotive deaths at high speeds. One thought is to only allow high-speed driving for people who pass a high-speed test, or only for certified cars with passengers who are wearing a 5-point harness, or only on roads. More relevant to my opinion is only on roads with adequate walk-paths — many deaths involve pedestrians. Yet another thought; auto-driving cars (with hydrogen power?). Computer-aided drivers can have split second reaction times, and can be fitted with infra-red “eyes” that see through fog, or sense the motion of a warm object (pedestrian) behind an obstruction. The ability of computer systems to use this data is limited currently, but it is sure to improve.

I thought some math might be in order. The automotive current that is carried by a highway, cars/hour, can be shown to equal to the speed of the average vehicle multiplied by the number of lanes divided by the average distance between vehicles. C = v L/ d.

At low congestion, the average driving speed, v remains constant as cars enter and leave the highway. Adding cars only affects the average distance between cars, d. At some point, around rush hour, so many vehicles enter the highway that d shrinks to a distance where drivers become uncomfortable; that’s about d = 3 car lengths, I’d guess. People begin to slow down, and pretty soon you get a traffic jam — a slow-moving parking lot where you get less flow with more vehicles. This jam will last for the entirety of rush hour. One of the nice things about auto-drive cars is that they don’t get nervous, even at 2 car lengths or less at 70 mph. The computer is confident that it will brake as soon as the car in front of it brakes, maintaining a safe speed and distance where people will not. This is a big safety advantage for all vehicles on the road.

I should mention that automobile death rates vary widely between different states (see here), and even more widely between different countries. Here is some data. If you think some country’s drivers are crazy, you should know that many of the countries with bad reputations (Italy, Ireland… ) have highway death rates that are lower than ours. In other countries, in Africa and the mid-east death rates per car or mile driven are 10x, 100x, or 1000x higher than in the US. The countries have few cars and lots of people who walk down the road drunk or stoned. Related to this, I’ve noticed that old people are not bad drivers, but they drive on narrow country roads where people walk and accidents are common.

Robert Buxbaum, June 6, 2018.