Tag Archives: unemployment

Britons did better than Germans since Brexit

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Britain and Germany are the two largest economies in Europe. When Britain voted to leave the EU seven years ago, 23 June 2016, economists, royals, and the richer, smarter set predicted disaster. The unemployment rate at the time was 5.2% in the UK; economists guaranteed it would rise with Brexit due to the loss of access to the common market. Unemployment fell to 3.7% today: Embarrassing for economists, a bonus for British workers. Germany unemployment today is 5.6%, basically slightly higher than the 4.3% of 2016. There has been a large influx of Ukrainians into both countries, and of illegal boat people into the UK. These are people coming to get jobs, seeking a better life than available in the rest of the EU. That boat people don’t go the other way suggests that things are better in the UK.

Fromm Bloomberg, October 2022. See full article here. UK unemployment is down to 2.5% in February 2023.

Britain’s GDP was supposed to suffer from Brexit, too. Instead, GDP has grown by 18% since 2016, about 2.5% per year on average, outpacing Germany’s 10.6% total growth, 1.5% per year. Between 2016 and 2022, the British GDP rose to $3.19T from $2.7 T. Germany’s GDP increased to $3.57T, from $3.14T (data from the world bank). Separating from the EU helped, it seems and helped us too something Trump promoted. Germany chose close ties to Russia instead. That does not seem to be a big plus.

German Inflation has traditionally been low. It has increased in the past few months due to rising food and energy costs.

Inflation is higher in the UK than in Germany, 10.4% as of February 2023 versus 8.7% in Germany, or 9.9% in the European Union and a whole. I don’t think that’s Brexit. The UK typically has seen higher inflation rate than Germany, something seen by the steady drop of the pound. They have a tradition of inefficiency and silliness. Part of the problem today is that Britain gets much of its electricity from natural gas, while the French use nuclear power. Nuclear is cheap and clean, compared to natural gas. Coal is cheap and dirty; China uses it extensively and plans to use more. But the real cause of the UK’s higher inflation is inherent in the British and Germans, IMHO. The Germans hate inflation, the Brits don’t mind.

Population growth (green) or decline (orange) in Europe

For high-power, white collar workers, Britain seems to be as good a spot as Germany, maybe better. Maximum tax rates are slightly lower than in Germany (45% vs 47.45%), and the population is growing (slowly). Apparently, people like it enough to come there and have children; children are a good sign, IMHO. It’s harder to get good workers, but population growth suggests that the problems won’t be catastrophic (as they were in Japan, and likely will be in Germany). If you want a developed economy with yet-lower taxes, plus good workers, the US is the place to be, IMHO. Our maximum tax rate is 37%. You get fewer free services (healthcare), but you can earn enough to afford it. Prince Harry moved to the US recently, joining foot-baller David Beckham, and Pele a few years back. Former Python, John Cleese, came here too… They complain that Americans are cheap when it comes to helping others (but that’s out attraction). They claim that we’re violent and crass (true enough!) but say that the UK isn’t what it was. The fact that refugees seem to prefer the UK to Germany, suggests that Britain is a place to go. Britain, I’d say seems to have come out pretty well from Brexit.

Robert Buxbaum, April 11, 2023

A high minimum wage killed Detroit, perhaps Seattle and NYC too.

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In July, eitght years ago, Detroit filed for bankruptcy protection. The US was well into an economic expansion, but the expansion had largely bypassed Detroit. The Detroit area unemployment rate was 9.7%, and the Detroit city rate was 17%, among the highest in the nation. Tax income was not sufficient to pay retirement or current employees. The city was riven by corruption and crime, and attendance in school was dismal, less that 25% in some districts, about 55% as an overall average. Kids no longer saw a value in education. After bankruptcy, things started to improve dramatically.

Detroit area unemployment rate, 2005 to 2021.

The largest cause of the problem, and of the solution, in my opinion, was a high Detroit minimum wage that applied before bankruptcy and that was voided by bankruptcy. It was called a “living wage”. In 2013 it was $16/ hour and applied to any business that dealt with the city and did not offer health insurance (see more on the specifics here).The stated purpose was to insure that all workers could support a family of four in some middle-class standard, by one wage-earner working 40 hours per week. It was a view of Detroit family life and economic need that didn’t match Detroit reality. In practice most of Detroit were not 4 person, one wage-earner households. It meant that most Detroiters could not find jobs, since most companies worked in some way with the city. The only workers who could find jobs were those with special skills or political connections. The alternative was criminal business including drug sales, prostitution and burglary. The unemployment rate was 70% among Detroit’s teenagers.

The high minimum wage bought loyalty for Detroit’s political bosses; they gave out jobs for kickbacks, and some went to jail, including the mayor. Most Detroiters could not find jobs, though, and this especially hurt those looking for their first job: the job that would demonstrate that math and spelling were important; that you had to show up on time, dressed clean, and that you were not to insult the customers. High unemployment meant low tax revenue, made worse by high city employment costs for basic services: janitors, secretaries, and mail room personnel. The city was a mess.

When Detroit went bankrupt, among the first changes was to eliminate the $!6/hour living wage for employees and others doing business with the city. This helped bring the city budget into balance, and it brought in residents, businesses, and developers. By January 2020 Detroit’s unemployment rate had fallen to 6%, and Detroit metro unemployment had fallen to 4.2%, the lowest rates on record. Employment gives a motivation to stay in Detroit and to stay in school: there are jobs to be had for those who could add and spell. I covered these improvements here.

Seattle are unemployment rate 2015 to 2021. Seattle’s unemployment rate is now higher than Detroit’s.

Meanwhile, Seattle voted to raise their minimum wage to $15, with the change law taking effect in stages. The law fully came into effect three months ago, in January, 2021. New York voted for similar changes more recently. It is hard to be sure of the effect of the high minimum wage but already it seems to have hit employment. By the latest data, Seattle’s unemployment rate has risen to 6.9%. That’s higher than in Detroit, a real reversal. While unemployment in New York City has yet to rise much, they have seen a drop in rent rates while Detroit has seen a rise. New York’s are also moving to be more out of balance, something that leads to corruption and bankruptcy. We’ll see how this works out.

Robert Buxbaum, March 25, 2021. Among my first blog posts were complaints about Detroit’s high “living wage”, see here for example. As Puerto Rico slid into bankruptcy, I complained about the same thing.

New York and San Francisco rents fall, Detroit rises for now.

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Rents in New York and San Francisco are far less expensive than before the pandemic. It’s been a boon for the suburbs, the south and the midwest, one that’s likely to continue unless Biden steps in. Before the pandemic, rent in San Francisco for a one bedroom apartment averaged over $3700 per month. New York rent was similar. People paid it because these cities offered robust business and entertainment, the best restaurants and bars, the best salons and clubs, the best music, museums, universities, and theater. New York was Wall Street, Madison Avenue and Broadway; San Francisco was Silicon valley and Hollywood. These cities were the place to be, and then the pandemic hit.

Post COVID-19, the benefits of big city life are gone, and replaced by negatives. The great restaurants are mostly gone; the museums, theaters, and salons, shut along with Hollywood. Wall Street and Madison Ave have gone on-line, as have the universities. If you can work and study from anywhere, why do it from an expensive hotbed of Corona.

People of means left the big cities with the first lockdowns. Wall Street moved on line, with offices in New Jersey, and many followed, along with college students, and hotel and restaurant workers. New York’s unemployment rate increased from 4-5% to over 9.5% today, among the highest rates in the nation, 9.5%. It would be higher if not for the departures. Crime spiked; the murder rate doubled. To keep people from leaving, landlords have lowered rents and many will now forgive a month or two of rent to keep apartments full with some rent coming in and an illusion of exclusivity. This is good for tenants, but tough on landlords.

Detroit rent history, 2014 to January 2021. Rents fell a lot on election day, maybe because of Biden, or because we think the pandemic is over.

As things stand, the suburbs and smaller cities are the beneficiaries of the exodus. Among the cities benefiting the most are cities in the south and mid-west: states that are more open and are relatively low cost: Phoenix, Oakland, Cleveland, St. Petersburg, and even Detroit. Detroit’s rents were already moving up as auto manufacturing returned from Mexico, see chart. Between early 2017 and October 2020, they went from $500/month to $1250/month for a 1 bedroom apartment, according to Zumper. Detroit rents fell after election day, but are still up 20% on the year. The influx of wealthier working folk to Detroit is welcome to some, unwelcome to tenants who find their rents are raised. I think it’s is a sign of a healthy economy that people follow life-quality, and that rents follow people. Our landlords are happy, but there are a lot of Detroit renters who are not

Joe Biden has promised to step in to make things right for everyone. He promised to have the government pay people’s rent so they don’t get evicted. I presume that means paying about double to people in NY and SF as to those in Detroit. He claims he will shutter smokestack industries too, and create the good jobs of the future in computers and high tech. It’s a nice claim. I suspect it’s a bailout of big city landlords, but what would I know. I suspect that the US would be better off if Joe just sat back and let New York rents fall, while allowing Detroit to gentrify. Detroiters need not worry about rents getting too pricy here. We’ve1500 shootings per year, that 15 times more than NYC, per capita. Unless that ratio changes, Detroit will continue to be the lower rent city.

Robert Buxbaum, January 17, 2021.

Trump, tariffs, and the national debt

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My previous post was about US foreign policy, Obama’s and Trumps. This one is about Trump’s domestic policy as I see it. The main thing I see, the pattern is that I think he’s trying to do is pay down the national debt while increasing employment. So far unemployment is down, but borrowing is not. I suspect that a major reason for the low unemployment is that Americans (particularly black Americans) are taking jobs that used to be held by Mexicans. As for US borrowing, it’s still bad. For his first budget, Trump, like all other recent politicians caved to the forces that favor borrow and spend than to pay back. In this century, only Wm. McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, Taft, Harding, and Coolidge managed to pay down the national debt. But only one man, Andrew Jackson, managed to pay it off completely. Jackson’s picture hangs in the pride of place in the Trump white house, something that I find significant. I suspect that Trump’s tariffs and spats are intended to pay down the debt without raising unemployment, or weakening the military. Andrew Jackson is his idea of “Make America Great Again.”

All recent presidents have raised the national debt. Trump claims he will shrink it.

All recent presidents have raised the national debt. Trump data to April 20, 2018.

As the graph above shows, if Trump plan is to pay down the debt, he is not succeeding. Trump is overspending — at a somewhat slower rate than other recent presidents, but in 1 1/4 year he’s increased the debt by 6.3%, about $1220 B. He’s saved a few billion by reduced payments to the UN, and to the EU for climate studies, and he’s asking NATO to pay more for Europe’s defense, but he’ll have to do a lot more, and the rest of the world is already unhappy with him.

Many US economists — Keynesians – are not happy with him for another reason. They claim that debt is good, and that borrowing increases employment. As proof they note that FDR borrowed and spent heavily though the 1930s,and we got out of the depression. Other economists point out that it took longer in the US to get out of the depression than in many other countries. More recently, under Jimmy Carter, deficit spending created a combination of high inflation and high unemployment, “stagflation,” suggesting that Keynes should be modified to “Neo Keynesians” who claim you can overspend if you don’t outspend the GDP growth rate. Sorry to say, even in these terms, Obama and GW Bush overspent badly, as did Reagan before them (see graph below). Obama raised the debt from 65% of the GDP to its current 105%, and GW Bush raised it from 50% of GDP to 65%. This borrowing did not increase employment, or raise the standard of living for most Americans, though several at the top became fabulously wealthy. As Alan Greenspan noted, “If national borrowing was a path to wealth, Zimbabwe would be the richest country on earth.” I’m more of a hard money man, as Greenspan was, inclined to think that a balanced budget is good, and that tariffs are good too.

Ratio of US government debt to GDP

Ratio of US government debt to GDP

As of June 1, 2018, Trump has imposed ~20% tariffs on five items: wood, steel, aluminum, washing machines, and solar panels. Combined, these items constitute 4.1% of our imports, $130 B/ year. Taxed at 20%, the US will collect $25 B/year. it’s a step, but I suspect that Trump knows that, if tariffs are to wipe out all of our deficit, he’ll have to impose a lot more, about 40% on all of our imports ($3,100 B/year). Trump may yet do this, and may yet cut spending, and put a lot more America to work. My sense is that this is his aim.

The next step in the Trump MAGA plan involves adding another $35B to the list of items being taxed; that’s about 1.1% of US imports (5.2% total). In response, our trade-partners have complained to the press and to the world court, and have imposed their own tariffs — so far on about $100 B of US products, mostly food items, like bourbon and cheese, chosen to hit Republicans in politically – sensitive states: Tennessee and Wisconsin. Canada now taxes US cheese at over 100%. It’s an effort to embarrass Trump and get Democrats elected in 2018. If these tactics don’t work, Trump will impose another round, e.g. on foreign-made cars and motorcycles. I’d also expect him to cut NATO funding unilaterally, too, as a counter-slap to the EU.

US unemployment by race

US unemployment by race, data to May 2018.

Speaking of Keynesian economists, Nobel Laureate economist, Paul Krugman of the New York Times has been predicting severe job losses, and a permanent stock collapse since 2016, and especially following Trump’s election. Virtually every week he announces that the end is near, and every month the economy looks better. But he’s not deterred, and neither are most economists. In a survey of nearly 100 economists by Reuters, 80% said that Trump’s policies will hurt the U.S. economy, and the rest said there would be little or no effect.[1] . So far it looks like they are all wrong. Unemployment is at record lows, particularly for African-Americans (see chart above); we’re adding new jobs at the rate of 200,000 new jobs per month, nearly 0.8% of the population per year. Inflation is a modest 2.3%, GDP growth is excellent, at 3.2% (or an incredible 4.5%). All we need now is a sensible immigration policy plus some healthcare reform, a modified social security tax, and for the economy to stay this way for another 5-10 years. It’s unlikely, but that’s the plan.

Robert Buxbaum, July 5, 2018. I’d hoped to see the employment and deficit numbers for June by now, but it’s not out. I’ve also argued that free trade is half right, as there is a benefit to workers, And there is a certain greatness that comes from paying your bills. Today, the EU offered to lower some auto tariffs if Trump does not move forward.

Detroit 1967 to 2017: unemployment comes down, murder rate doesn’t.

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Almost 50 years ago today, July 23, 1967 white policemen raided an unlicensed, “blind pig” bar in a black neighborhood, the 12th street of Detroit, and the city responded with four days of rioting, 43 killings (33 black, 10 white), 2509 stores looted, and over 1000 fires. In 2017, at last the city is beginning to show signs of recovery. By 2015 the city’s unemployment had gone down from about 20% to 12%, and  in the first six months 2017, the firs six months of the Trump presidency, 2017 it’s gone down again to 7 1/2%. It’s not that 7 1/2% unemployment is good, but it’s better. Per-hour salaries are hardly up, but I take that as better than having a high average salary at very low employment. As a point of reference, the unemployment rate in Detroit in 1967, before the riots was 3.4%. Within weeks, 150,000 jobs were lost, and anyone who could leave the city, did.

Detroit Unemployment rates are way down, but the city still looks like a mess.

Detroit Unemployment rates are way down, but the city still looks like a mess.

Another issue for Detroit is its uncommonly high murder rate. In the mid-80s, Detroit had the highest murder rate in the US, about 55 murders per 100,000 population per year (0.055%/year). As of February 1, 2017, the murder rate was virtually unchanged: 50 per 100,000 or 0.05%/year, but two cities have higher rates yet. At present rates, you have a 3.5% of dying by homicide if you live in Detroit for 70 years — even higher if you’re male. The rate in the rest of the US is about 1/10th this, 0.005%/year, or 5 per 100,000, with a dramatic difference between rural and urban populations.

Murder rate in 50 cities with Detroit highlighted. From The Economist, February 2017.

Murder rate in 50 cities with Detroit highlighted, from The Economist.

One of the causes of the high murder rate in Detroit, and in the US generally, I suspect, is our stiff, minimum-penalties for crime. As sir Thomas Moose pointed out, when crime is punished severely, there is a tendency to murder. If you’re going to spend the next 20 years behind bars, you might as well try any means you can to escape. Another thought — the one favored by social liberals — is that it’s the presence of guns in the US encourages murder. It may, but it also seems to prevent crime by allowing the victim to defend himself or herself. And the effect on murder is not so clear, if you consider suicide as a form of murder. In countries like Canada with few guns, people kill themselves by hanging or by throwing themselves off high buildings. My hope is that Detroit’s murder rate will drop in 2017 to match its improved economic condition, but have no clear reason to think it will.

Robert Buxbaum, July 20, 2017. Here are some suggestions I’ve made over the years.

Puerto Rico’s minimum wage and statehood

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Puerto Rico is in deep trouble and it’s getting worse. Unemployment is at 12%, double the next worst state or territory (Alaska). Tourism is down and poverty is at 41%. US tourists have begun going elsewhere where prices are lower: Bermuda, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. The island is effectively bankrupt and would have filed for bankruptcy last year except that, as a US territory, they legally can’t. But neither can they pay their bills. The territory will go into default in 2 weeks, on July 1, 2016 unless congress creates a new funding mechanism for them. Statehood would allow Puerto Rico to go bankrupt, but there is no way for statehood to be achieved by July 1. Nor will bankruptcy help them, long term.

Puerto Rico's minimum wage is vastly too high; here it is compared with other US states.

Puerto Rico’s minimum wage is vastly too high for its median wage. From Preston Cooper, Economics21.

It is worthwhile to ask why Puerto Rico is in such bad shape. Why are they worse off than Guam, for example; Guam is far more isolated. Puerto Rico is run poorly, but it’s no worse than Guam or  Illinois. One problem particular to Puerto Rico is that their minimum wage is way too high relative to the median wage.

Because of the climate, living expense are low in Puerto Rico, but Puerto Rico’s economy is mostly tourism. It competes for tourist dollars with lower-wage Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Neither Alaska nor Guam must compete this way, with a nearby, low cost alternative. Puerto Rico could compete better if they could lower their minimum wage. Tourism would be more attractive, and the government would not have to spend as much either for minimal-skill workers.

With a lower minimum wage, more Puerto Ricans would be able to find jobs, and the government would likely manage to balance its books. But Puerto Rico is part of the US, and we set the minimum wage. I think the federal government should grant them an exemption. Without one, there is no obvious way for Puerto Rico to pay its bills.

Four years ago, in my first blog post, I suggested that Detroit should lower its $15/hour ‘living wage‘, a wage rate that unduly burdened the city budget, and added to Detroit’s rampant unemployment and corruption. A year later, the city dropped it as part of bankruptcy, and saw significant improvements. I’m not alone in suggesting a lower minimum wage. It’s better than state-hood and immediate bankruptcy.

Robert Buxbaum, June 19, 2016.

Detroit emerges from bankruptcy. Not quite.

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missing homes Detroit

While Detroit’s central core comes back, surrounding, homes burn at 220+/month, leave Detroit streets looking like the teeth of an aging hillbilly.

Detroit went bankrupt last year, the largest US city to do so since New York in 1970. As with New York’s bankruptcy, Detroit’s was used to cancel old debts and rewrite ill-thought contracts. Detroit also got to jail some crooked politicians including mayor Kilpatrick, described as “a walking crime wave.” But the city and county have no easy path out of bankruptcy as both city and county are likely insolvent. That is, they spend more than they take in despite massive out-state funding, and high taxes, 10% above the state level. To make matters worse, they are losing population at the rate of 1% or so per year. It’s hard to fund a city built for 2 million on the tax revenue of 1/3 as many, especially when they are mostly unemployed. Unless a lot changes soon, another bankruptcy is almost inevitable — likely this time at the county level.

We got in this state, largely as a result of a 50 year war between the black, solidly Democrat, somewhat anarchist, political establishment of Detroit, and the white, stayed, mostly Republican out state. The white population fled following the riots of the 60s and the richer black population soon followed. The remainder stayed, trapped in slowly decaying neighborhoods as the city went broke. White flight allowed the black community to develop its own, Motown culture, but except for the music industry, it has not benefitted from this culture.

Detroit's murder rate, 45/100,000, is the highest in the US. It's coming down but not that fast.

Detroit’s murder rate is the highest in the US. It’s come down 10% in the last 2 years, but has far to go.

Detroiters have poor health, poor savings rates, high murder rates, and a fire rate of about .22% per month, 2.6% per year. The city lacks basic city services like reliable fire fighting and street plowing. Police at one point erected signs that said, “enter at your own risk.” There is a lack of small businesses and the services they would provide too: laundromats, grocery stores, and taxis (though no lack of bars and marijuana maintenance clinics). Employment in the auto-industry is down. And it’s not being replaced by home-grown small business – perhaps hampered by the low savings rate. A surprisingly large fraction of the Detroit homes are in foreclosure, see map, and with it a high abandonment rate and a high fire rate. As pheasant and dear return, non-core Detroit is beginning to look like farm country.

Detroit foreclosures near me. Blue is occupied homes, red is unoccupied, yellow unknown, and green is destroyed homes or vacant, foreclosed land.

Detroit foreclosures near me. Homes in dark blue are occupied foreclosed, red is unoccupied, and green plots are destroyed homes or vacant, foreclosed land.

It’s not clear what political leaders should do. The city council would like to return to their pre-bankruptcy ways where they could borrow as much as they felt they needed and spend on whatever they saw fit — often on fast friends, fast cars, gambling, and vacation homes outside of the city. But the out-state population has been reluctant to give them the credit card. Is this racist or is it prudent — probably both, but this can not continue. The city and county pension funds were ransacked for ill-advised investments and consulting fees to cronies and their power-lawyers. Either the money is replaced from out-state or there will be some unhappy retirees in the not-too-distant future. My guess is that the state will have to pick up the tab for this mismanagement, but that they won’t want to hand over management control afterwards.

Rand Paul, a potential GOP presidential candidate, has proposed rebuilding business and property values by a method that the city will almost certainly reject. His solution: cut services to low-population density areas and cut taxes on business and earned income. While this would likely bring in new people and new businesses, the people would likely be white, and the businesses white-owned/ white-serving. Black-Detroiters have too little savings, organization and income to directly benefit from this plan. Detroit’s Democrat politicians will claim, not without merit, that this is welfare for rich whites: a way for them to become yet-richer while doing nothing for the poor blacks of the burning neighborhoods. They are likely to demand control as the elected officials of the town: regulating business and raising the minimum wage to create “equality.” I suspect this is a bad idea.

Detroit hunger games

Detroit suffers from two populations and a divide.

To some extent we’re already seeing the return of white-owned, white-serving businesses. Classic buildings in the core of the city have been purchased by white developers – notably Dan Gilbert of Quicken Loans leading to gentrification and an influx of single, white hipsters. The newcomers are viewed as half-saviors, half-carpetbaggers. They dwell in a whiter city core with hipster bars and expensive restaurants. Does a poor city with massive debt, crime, and unemployment benefit from a core filled with high-priced, gourmet coffee and fern bars?

The author, Robert Buxbaum, enjoys a day at an artificial beach in central Detroit.

The author, Robert Buxbaum, enjoys a beer at an artificial beach-cafe in central Detroit with some, few black folks, none poor. Is this good for Detroit?

The new hipsters put a squeeze on city services too — one that’s hard to deal with fairly. Detroit can not afford to plow all the streets after a snow. Should the new high-tax white folks get plowed streets, or should they suffer equally with everyone else? Detroit education is abysmal, but the high tax-bracket folks want better. Should they get it, or suffer equally? They want extra street lights and police protection. Should they get it, or suffer equally? Is this the way up?  A solution I’d proposed some while ago was to divide the core city from the now-rural outskirts so that each could be managed more sanely. It’s not a grand a solution like Rand’s plan, but less likely to be rejected. One way or another, we seem destined to have a Detroit with a rich core and abandoned neighborhoods. I suspect it might as well be managed that way.

Robert E. Buxbaum, February 10, 2015. I don’t have solutions, but write about the city’s problems, and the partial solutions I’ve heard as a way to clarify my thinking — and perhaps yours too.