Tag Archives: sky

Chaos, Stocks, and Global Warming

14 Replies

Two weeks ago, I discussed black-body radiation and showed how you calculate the rate of radiative heat transfer from any object. Based on this, I claimed that basal metabolism (the rate of calorie burning for people at rest) was really proportional to surface area, not weight as in most charts. I also claimed that it should be near-impossible to lose weight through exercise, and went on to explain why we cover the hot parts of our hydrogen purifiers and hydrogen generators in aluminum foil.

I’d previously discussed chaos and posted a chart of the earth’s temperature over the last 600,000 years. I’d now like to combine these discussions to give some personal (R. E. Buxbaum) thoughts on global warming.

Black-body radiation differs from normal heat transfer in that the rate is proportional to emissivity and is very sensitive to temperature. We can expect the rate of heat transfer from the sun to earth will follow these rules, and that the rate from the earth will behave similarly.

That the earth is getting warmer is seen as proof that the carbon dioxide we produce is considered proof that we are changing the earth’s emissivity so that we absorb more of the sun’s radiation while emitting less (relatively), but things are not so simple. Carbon dioxide should, indeed promote terrestrial heating, but a hotter earth should have more clouds and these clouds should reflect solar radiation, while allowing the earth’s heat to radiate into space. Also, this model would suggest slow, gradual heating beginning, perhaps in 1850, but the earth’s climate is chaotic with a fractal temperature rise that has been going on for the last 15,000 years (see figure).

Recent temperature variation as measured from the Greenland Ice. A previous post had the temperature variation over the past 600,000 years.

Recent temperature variation as measured from the Greenland Ice. Like the stock market, it shows aspects of chaos.

Over a larger time scale, the earth’s temperature looks, chaotic and cyclical (see the graph of global temperature in this post) with ice ages every 120,000 years, and chaotic, fractal variation at times spans of 100 -1000 years. The earth’s temperature is self-similar too; that is, its variation looks the same if one scales time and temperature. This is something that is seen whenever a system possess feedback and complexity. It’s seen also in the economy (below), a system with complexity and feedback.

Manufacturing Profit is typically chaotic -- something that makes it exciting.

Manufacturing Profit is typically chaotic — and seems to have cold spells very similar to the ice ages seen above.

The economy of any city is complex, and the world economy even more so. No one part changes independent of the others, and as a result we can expect to see chaotic, self-similar stock and commodity prices for the foreseeable future. As with global temperature, the economic data over a 10 year scale looks like economic data over a 100 year scale. Surprisingly,  the economic data looks similar to the earth temperature data over a 100 year or 1000 year scale. It takes a strange person to guess either consistently as both are chaotic and fractal.

gomez3

It takes a rather chaotic person to really enjoy stock trading (Seen here, Gomez Addams of the Addams Family TV show).

Clouds and ice play roles in the earth’s feedback mechanisms. Clouds tend to increase when more of the sun’s light heats the oceans, but the more clouds, the less heat gets through to the oceans. Thus clouds tend to stabilize our temperature. The effect of ice is to destabilize: the more heat that gets to the ice, the more melts and the less of the suns heat is reflected to space. There is time-delay too, caused by the melting flow of ice and ocean currents as driven by temperature differences among the ocean layers, and (it seems) by salinity. The net result, instability and chaos.

The sun has chaotic weather too. The rate of the solar reactions that heat the earth increases with temperature and density in the sun’s interior: when a volume of the sun gets hotter, the reaction rates pick up making the volume yet-hotter. The temperature keeps rising, and the heat radiated to the earth keeps increasing, until a density current develops in the sun. The hot area is then cooled by moving to the surface and the rate of solar output decreases. It is quite likely that some part of our global temperature rise derives from this chaotic variation in solar output. The ice caps of Mars are receding.

The change in martian ice could be from the sun, or it might be from Martian dust in the air. If so, it suggests yet another feedback system for the earth. When economic times age good we have more money to spend on agriculture and air pollution control. For all we know, the main feedback loops involve dust and smog in the air. Perhaps, the earth is getting warmer because we’ve got no reflective cloud of dust as in the dust-bowl days, and our cities are no longer covered by a layer of thick, black (reflective) smog. If so, we should be happy to have the extra warmth.

The martian sky: why is it yellow?

3 Replies

In a previous post, I detailed my calculations concerning the color of the sky and sun. Basically the sun gives off light mostly in the yellow to green range, with fairly little red or purple. A lot of the blue and green wavelengths scatter leaving the sun  looking yellow because yellow looks yellow and the red plus blue also looks yellow because of additive color.

If you look at the sky through a spectroscope, it’s pretty blue with some green. Sky blue involves a bit of an eye trick of additive color so that we see the scattered blue + green as sky blue and not aqua. At sundown, the sun becomes reddish and the majority of the sky becomes greenish-grey as more green and yellow light gets scattered. The sky near the sun is orange as the atmosphere is thick enough to scatter orange, while the blue and green scatters out.

Now, to talk about the color of the sky on Mars, both at noon and at sunset. Except for the effect of the red color of the dust on Mars I would expect the sky to be blue on Mars, just like on earth but a lighter shade of blue as the atmosphere is thinner. When you add some red from the dust, one would expect the sky to be grey. That is, I would expect to find a simple combination of a base of sky blue (blue plus green), plus some extra red-orange light scattered from the Martian dust. In additive colors, the combination of blue-green and red-orange is grey, so that’s the color I’d expect the Martian sky to be normally. Some photos of the Martian sky match this expectation; see below. My guess is this is on a day when there was not much dust in the air, though NASA provides no details here.

martian sky; looks grey

On some days (high dust days, I assume), the Martian sky is turns a shade of yellow-green. I’d guess that’s because the red-dust absorbs the blue and some of the green spectrum, but does not actually add red. We are thus involved with subtractive color and, in subtractive color orange plus blue-green = butterscotch, not grey or pink.

Martian sky color

I now present a photo of the Martian sky at sunset. This is something really peculiar that I would not have expected ahead of time, but think I can explain now that I see it. The sky looks yellow in general, like in the photo above, but blue around the sun. I could explain this picture by saying that the blue and green of the Martian sky is being scattered by the Martian air (CO2, mostly), just like our atmosphere scatters these colors on earth; the sky near the sun looks blue, not red-orange because the Martian atmosphere is thinner (at noon there is less air to scatter light, but at sun-down the atmosphere is the same thickness as ours, more or less). The red of the dust does not show up in the sky color near the sun since the red-color is back scattered near the sun, and not front scattered. The Martian sky is yellow elsewhere where there is some front scatter of the reddish light reflecting off of the dust. This sounds plausible to me; tell me what you think.

Martian sky at sunset

Martian sky at sunset

As an aside, while I have long understood there was an experimental difference between subtractive and additive color, I have never quite understood why this should be so. Why is it that subtractive color combinations are different, and uniformly different from additive color combinations. I’d have thought you’d get more-or-less the same color if you remove red from one part of a piece of paper and remove blue from another as if you add red, purple, and yellow. A mental model I have (perhaps wrong) is that subtractive color looks like it does because of the details of the spectral absorption of the particular pigment chemicals that are typically used. Based on this model, I expect to find someday some new red and green pigments where the combination looks yellow when mixed on a page. I’ve not found it yet, but that’s my expectation — perhaps you know of a really good explanation for why additive color is so different from subtractive color.

Why isn’t the sky green?

11 Replies

Yesterday I blogged with a simple version of why the sky was blue and not green. Now I’d like to add mathematics to the treatment. The simple version said that the sky was blue because the sun color was a spectrum centered on yellow. I said that molecules of air scattered mostly the short wavelength, high frequency light colors, indigo and blue. This made the sky blue. I said that, the rest of the sunlight was not scattered, so that the sun looked yellow. I then said that the only way for the sky to be green would be if the sun were cooler, orange say, then the sky would be green. The answer is sort-of true, but only in a hand-waving way; so here’s the better treatment.

Light scatters off of dispersed small particles in proportion to wavelength to the inverse 4th power of the wavelength. That is to say, we expect air molecules will scatter more short wavelength, cool colors (purple and indigo) than warm colors (red and orange) but a real analysis must use the actual spectrum of sunlight, the light power (mW/m2.nm) at each wavelength.

intensity of sunlight as a function of wavelength (frequency)

intensity of sunlight as a function of wavelength

The first thing you’ll notice is that the light from our sun isn’t quite yellow, but is mostly green. Clearly plants understand this, otherwise chlorophyl would be yellow. There are fairly large components of blue and red too, but my first correction to the previous treatment is that the yellow color we see as the sun is a trick of the eye called additive color. Our eyes combine the green and red of the sun’s light, and sees it as yellow. There are some nice classroom experiment you can do to show this, the simplest being to make a Maxwell top with green and red sections, spin the top, and notice that you see the color as yellow.

In order to add some math to the analysis of sky color, I show a table below where I divided the solar spectrum into the 7 representative colors with their effective power. There is some subjectivity to this, but I took red as the wavelengths from 620 to 750nm so I claim on the table was 680 nm. The average power of the red was 500 mW/m2nm, so I calculate the power as .5 W/m2nm x 130 nm = 65W/m2. Similarly, I took orange to be the 30W/m2 centered on 640nm, etc. This division is presented in the first 3 columns of the following table. The first line of the table is an approximate of the Rayleigh-scatter factor for our atmosphere, with scatter presented as the percent of the incident light. That is % scattered = 9E11/wavelength^4.skyblue scatter

To use the Rayleigh factor, I calculate the 1/wavelength of each color to the 4th power; this is shown in the 4th column. The scatter % is now calculated and I apply this percent to the light intensities to calculate the amount of each color that I’d expect in the scattered and un-scattered light (the last two columns). Based on this, I find that the predominant wavelength in the color of the sky should be blue-cyan with significant components of green, indigo, and violet. When viewed through a spectroscope, I find that these are the colors I see (I have a pocket spectroscope and used it an hour ago to check). Viewed through the same spectroscope (with eye protection), I expect the sun should look like a combination of green and red, something our eyes see as yellow (I have not done this personally). At any rate, it appears that the sky looks blue because our eyes see the green+ cyan+ indigo + purple in the scattered light as sky blue.220px-RGB_illumination

At sunrise and sunset when the sun is on the horizon the scatter percents will be higher, so that all of the sun’s colors will be scattered except red and orange. The sun looks orange then, as expected, but the sky should look blue-green, as that’s the combination of all the other colors of sunlight when orange and red are removed. I’ve not checked this last yet. I’ll have to take my spectroscope to a fine sunset and see what I see when I look at the sky.