When the UK left the EU, they gained some economic freedom, but lost easy access to their largest trade partner. They avoided having to follow the weird green policies of the EU, and no longer had to take low cost workers from Poland, Bulgaria, Tec, but having lost easy access to European trade, the assumption was that they would want a trade deal soon, with someone, and the likely someone was the USA.
At first things went pretty well. there was the predicted crash didn’t come, showing that the top economists were talking out their hats, or trying to scare people to stay in the EU. And then Trump proposed the first of four attempts at a trade deal, and things got ugly. All four attempts were rejected in a most-forceful and insulting way.
When Trumps first forays at a trade deal were rejected, he attempt a visit in the summer of 2017. The British Parliament forbidding the visit, accepting it only by a slim majority with the PM, May making no strong case. The mayor of London protested with a blimp of Trump as a big baby, and the Queen was not sure she had time for tea (she had time for Obama). Trump cancelled the visit, and May made deals with Norway, Switzerland, Israel, Palestine, and Iceland. Why these but not the US?
Over the next two years Trump made trade deals with Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Korea, trying The UK again in July, 2019. This time, Theresa May was more welcoming — she was facing an election — but the blimp was brought out again, and allowed to follow Trump around England, along with a statue of Trump on the toilet, tweeting, and making fart sounds while saying “witch hunt,” “no collusion*”, and other comic comments. All rather insulting, and deal with the UK was signed.
I suspect Trump’s offers to the UK were similar to those with Japan, and Japan seemed very happy with the deal (Biden offered them an exit from Trump’s, and Abe stayed — and proposed Trump for the Nobel Prize. So why the British antagonism? Even if they had to say no, why didn’t they arrange a location or treatment to say no politely. India said no to Trump’s trade deal, politely, in 2020, and to the UK too.
My theory is that Theresa May was taken by the anti-Trump propaganda of Europe and particularly of the German press (see magazine covers of the time). Germany was the leader of Europe (this status has diminished), and its press presented Trump as a racist murderer. May kept trying to get back into the EU, and may have thought that ill-treating Trump would help. Boris Johnson followed May, and was pro-Trump, but his cabinet was not. They acted as if they could recreate the British empire of Queen Victoria — a silly thought. They tried for free trade deals with India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, members of the old empire, but they never quite managed anything. COVID made things worse. The UK economy stalled, Johnson was removed, and the current PM, Rishi Sunak, seems to have got nowhere with Biden. Trump re-offered his trade deal during the visit, but he was out of office; Both Biden and Sunak ignored it.
The UK needs free trade with some substantial countries. They are a hub for manufacturing, information, and banking, currently without any spokes. India likely turned them down because the UK no longer has the power to protect them from enemies, China, Iran, Russia.., nor to protect their trade. Aside from rejoining the EU (good luck there), US is the obvious partner. If personality were the problem, there would have been a deal between Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden.
Since leaving the EU, the UK is doing slightly better than Germany, but that’s not saying much. British exports were helped by the cut off of trade with Russia, but that might not last, and London is having trouble trying to remain a financial center, fighting difficult travel and work rules, and the decline of the pound. Maybe it’s Biden’s fault that there is no deal. It’s hard to tell. Last week, the British Foreign secretary, David Cameron, came to visit Trump at Mar a Lago for a good feelings chat and to start on a trade deal should Trump become president. It’s not clear that Trump will become president, but there are at least hopes for a deal, ideally signed at a distance from the baby balloon.
Robert Buxbaum, April 18, 2024 *”Russian collusion” was a big deal at the time. A dossier was supposed show that Trump was a Russian agent. It turned out the dossier was created by Democrats working with the FBI.